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The flare likelihood and region eruption forecasting (FLARECAST) project: flare forecasting in the big data & machine learning era
The European Union funded the FLARECAST project, that ran from January 2015 until February 2018. FLARECAST had a research-to-operations (R2O) focus, and accordingly introduced several innovations into the discipline of solar flare forecasting. FLARECAST innovations were: first, the treatment of hundreds of physical properties viewed as promising flare predictors on equal footing, extending multiple previous works; second, the use of fourteen (14) different machine learning techniques, also on equal footing, to optimize the immense Big Data parameter space created by these many predictors; third, the establishment of a robust, three-pronged communication effort oriented toward policy makers, space-weather stakeholders and the wider public. FLARECAST pledged to make all its data, codes and infrastructure openly available worldwide. The combined use of 170+ properties (a total of 209 predictors are now available) in multiple machine-learning algorithms, some of which were designed exclusively for the project, gave rise to changing sets of best-performing predictors for the forecasting of different flaring levels, at least for major flares. At the same time, FLARECAST reaffirmed the importance of rigorous training and testing practices to avoid overly optimistic pre-operational prediction performance. In addition, the project has (a) tested new and revisited physically intuitive flare predictors and (b) provided meaningful clues toward the transition from flares to eruptive flares, namely, events associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These leads, along with the FLARECAST data, algorithms and infrastructure, could help facilitate integrated space-weather forecasting efforts that take steps to avoid effort duplication. In spite of being one of the most intensive and systematic flare forecasting efforts to-date, FLARECAST has not managed to convincingly lift the barrier of stochasticity in solar flare occurrence and forecasting: solar flare prediction thus remains inherently probabilistic.
Vortex Motions in the Solar Atmosphere: Definitions, Theory, Observations, and Modelling
Vortex flows, related to solar convective turbulent dynamics at granular scales and their interplay with magnetic fields within intergranular lanes, occur abundantly on the solar surface and in the atmosphere above. Their presence is revealed in high-resolution and high-cadence solar observations from the ground and from space and with state-of-the-art magnetoconvection simulations. Vortical flows exhibit complex characteristics and dynamics, excite a wide range of different waves, and couple different layers of the solar atmosphere, which facilitates the channeling and transfer of mass, momentum and energy from the solar surface up to the low corona. Here we provide a comprehensive review of documented research and new developments in theory, observations, and modelling of vortices over the past couple of decades after their observational discovery, including recent observations in Hα, innovative detection techniques, diverse hydrostatic modelling of waves and forefront magnetohydrodynamic simulations incorporating effects of a non-ideal plasma. It is the first systematic overview of solar vortex flows at granular scales, a field with a plethora of names for phenomena that exhibit similarities and differences and often interconnect and rely on the same physics. With the advent of the 4-m Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope and the forthcoming European Solar Telescope, the ongoing Solar Orbiter mission, and the development of cutting-edge simulations, this review timely addresses the state-of-the-art on vortex flows and outlines both theoretical and observational future research directions.
Type III Radio Bursts Observations on 20th August 2017 and 9th September 2017 with LOFAR Bałdy Telescope
We present the observations of two type III solar radio events performed with LOFAR (LOw-Frequency ARray) station in Bałdy (PL612), Poland in single mode. The first event occurred on 20th August 2017 and the second one on 9th September 2017. Solar dynamic spectra were recorded in the 10 MHz up to 90 MHz frequency band. Together with the wide frequency bandwidth LOFAR telescope (with single station used) provides also high frequency and high sensitivity observations. Additionally to LOFAR observations, the data recorded by instruments on boards of the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) in the UV spectral range complement observations in the radio field. Unfortunately, only the radio event from 9th September 2017 was observed by both satellites. Our study shows that the LOFAR single station observations, in combination with observations at other wavelengths can be very useful for better understanding of the environment in which the type III radio events occur.