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- ItemMethodology for high-quality mobile measurement with focus on black carbon and particle mass concentrations(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2019) Alas, H.D.C.; Weinhold, K.; Costabile, F.; Di Ianni, A.; Müller, T.; Pfeifer, S.; Di Liberto, L.; Turner, J.R.; Wiedensohler, A.Measurements of air pollutants such as black carbon (BC) and particle mass concentration in general, using mobile platforms equipped with high-time-resolution instruments, have gained popularity over the last decade due to their wide range of applicability. Assuring the quality of mobile measurement, data have become more essential, particularly when the personal exposure to pollutants is related to their spatial distribution. In the following, we suggest a methodology to achieve data from mobile measurements of equivalent black carbon (eBC) and PM2:5 mass concentrations with high data quality. Besides frequent routine quality assurance measures of the instruments, the methodology includes the following steps: (a) measures to ensure the quality of mobile instruments through repeated collocated measurements using identical instrumentation, (b) inclusion of a fixed station along the route containing quality-assured reference instruments, and (c) sufficiently long and frequent intercomparisons between the mobile and reference instruments to correct the particle number and mass size distributions obtained from mobile measurements. The application of the methodology can provide the following results. First, collocated mobile measurements with sets of identical instruments allow identification of undetected malfunctions of the instruments. Second, frequent intercomparisons against the reference instruments will ensure the quality of the mobile measurement data of the eBC mass concentration. Third, the intercomparison data between the mobile optical particle size spectrometer (OPSS) and a reference mobility particle size spectrometer (MPSS) allow for the adjustment of the OPSS particle number size distribution using physically meaningful corrections. Matching the OPSS and MPSS volume particle size distributions is crucial for the determination of PM2:5 mass concentration. Using size-resolved complex refractive indices and time-resolved fine-mode volume correction factors of the fine-particle range, the calculated PM2:5 from the OPSS was within 5 % of the reference instruments (MPSSCAPSS). However, due to the nonsphericity and an unknown imaginary part of the complex refractive index of supermicrometer particles, a conversion to a volume equivalent diameter yields high uncertainties of the particle mass concentration greater than PM2:5. The proposed methodology addresses issues regarding the quality of mobile measurements, especially for health impact studies, validation of modeled spatial distribution, and development of air pollution mitigation strategies.
- ItemThe second ACTRIS inter-comparison (2016) for Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitors (ACSM): Calibration protocols and instrument performance evaluations(Philadelphia, Pa.: Taylor & Francis, 2019) Freney, Evelyn; Zhang, Yunjiang; Croteau, Philip; Amodeo, Tanguy; Williams, Leah; Truong, François; Petit, Jean-Eudes; Sciare, Jean; Sarda-Esteve, Roland; Bonnaire, Nicolas; Arumae, Tarvo; Aurela, Minna; Bougiatioti, Aikaterini; Mihalopoulos, Nikolaos; Coz, Esther; Artinano, Begoña; Crenn, Vincent; Elste, Thomas; Heikkinen, Liine; Poulain, Laurent; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Herrmann, Hartmut; Priestman, Max; Alastuey, Andres; Stavroulas, Iasonas; Tobler, Anna; Vasilescu, Jeni; Zanca, Nicola; Canagaratna, Manjula; Carbone, Claudio; Flentje, Harald; Green, David; Maasikmets, Marek; Marmureanu, Luminita; Cruz Minguillon, Maria; Prevot, Andre S.H.; Gros, Valerie; Jayne, John; Favez, OlivierThis work describes results obtained from the 2016 Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor (ACSM) intercomparison exercise performed at the Aerosol Chemical Monitor Calibration Center (ACMCC, France). Fifteen quadrupole ACSMs (Q_ACSM) from the European Research Infrastructure for the observation of Aerosols, Clouds and Trace gases (ACTRIS) network were calibrated using a new procedure that acquires calibration data under the same operating conditions as those used during sampling and hence gets information representative of instrument performance. The new calibration procedure notably resulted in a decrease in the spread of the measured sulfate mass concentrations, improving the reproducibility of inorganic species measurements between ACSMs as well as the consistency with co-located independent instruments. Tested calibration procedures also allowed for the investigation of artifacts in individual instruments, such as the overestimation of m/z 44 from organic aerosol. This effect was quantified by the m/z (mass-to-charge) 44 to nitrate ratio measured during ammonium nitrate calibrations, with values ranging from 0.03 to 0.26, showing that it can be significant for some instruments. The fragmentation table correction previously proposed to account for this artifact was applied to the measurements acquired during this study. For some instruments (those with high artifacts), this fragmentation table adjustment led to an “overcorrection” of the f44 (m/z 44/Org) signal. This correction based on measurements made with pure NH4NO3, assumes that the magnitude of the artifact is independent of chemical composition. Using data acquired at different NH4NO3 mixing ratios (from solutions of NH4NO3 and (NH4)2SO4) we observe that the magnitude of the artifact varies as a function of composition. Here we applied an updated correction, dependent on the ambient NO3 mass fraction, which resulted in an improved agreement in organic signal among instruments. This work illustrates the benefits of integrating new calibration procedures and artifact corrections, but also highlights the benefits of these intercomparison exercises to continue to improve our knowledge of how these instruments operate, and assist us in interpreting atmospheric chemistry. © 2019, © 2019 Author(s). Published with license by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
- ItemEnvironmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of alternative power sector decarbonization strategies([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2019) Luderer, Gunnar; Pehl, Michaja; Arvesen, Anders; Gibon, Thomas; Bodirsky, Benjamin L.; de Boer, Harmen Sytze; Fricko, Oliver; Hejazi, Mohamad; Humpenöder, Florian; Iyer, Gokul; Mima, Silvana; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Popp, Alexander; van den Berg, Maarten; van Vuuren, Detlef; Hertwich, Edgar G.A rapid and deep decarbonization of power supply worldwide is required to limit global warming to well below 2 °C. Beyond greenhouse gas emissions, the power sector is also responsible for numerous other environmental impacts. Here we combine scenarios from integrated assessment models with a forward-looking life-cycle assessment to explore how alternative technology choices in power sector decarbonization pathways compare in terms of non-climate environmental impacts at the system level. While all decarbonization pathways yield major environmental co-benefits, we find that the scale of co-benefits as well as profiles of adverse side-effects depend strongly on technology choice. Mitigation scenarios focusing on wind and solar power are more effective in reducing human health impacts compared to those with low renewable energy, while inducing a more pronounced shift away from fossil and toward mineral resource depletion. Conversely, non-climate ecosystem damages are highly uncertain but tend to increase, chiefly due to land requirements for bioenergy.
- ItemA multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2016) Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Heyes, Chris; Strefler, Jessica; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We include in our assessment, a range of alternative assumptions on the implementation of current and planned pollution control policies. The resulting air pollution emission ranges significantly extend those in the Representative Concentration Pathways. Climate mitigation policies complement current efforts on air pollution control through technology and fuel transformations in the energy system. A combination of stringent policies on air pollution control and climate change mitigation results in 40% of the global population exposed to PM levels below the WHO air quality guideline; with the largest improvements estimated for India, China, and Middle East. Our results stress the importance of integrated multisector policy approaches to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.
- ItemProjecting the impact of air pollution on child stunting in India—synergies and trade-offs between climate change mitigation, ambient air quality control, and clean cooking access(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2022) Dimitrova, Asya; Marois, Guillaume; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Rafaj, Peter; Pachauri, Shonali; KC, Samir; Olmos, Sergio; Rasella, Davide; Tonne, CathrynMany children in India face the double burden of high exposure to ambient (AAP) and household air pollution, both of which can affect their linear growth. Although climate change mitigation is expected to decrease AAP, climate policies could increase the cost of clean cooking fuels. Here, we develop a static microsimulation model to project the air pollution-related burden of child stunting in India up to 2050 under four scenarios combining climate change mitigation (2 °C target) with national policies for AAP control and subsidised access to clean cooking. We link data from a nationally representative household survey, satellite-based estimates of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a multi-dimensional demographic projection and PM2.5 and clean cooking access projections from an integrated assessment model. We find that the positive effects on child linear growth from reductions in AAP under the 2 °C Paris Agreement target could be fully offset by the negative effects of climate change mitigation through reduced clean cooking access. Targeted AAP control or subsidised access to clean cooking could shift this trade-off to result in net benefits of 2.8 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1.4, 4.2) or 6.5 (UI: 6.3, 6.9) million cumulative prevented cases of child stunting between 2020–50 compared to business-as-usual. Implementation of integrated climate, air quality, and energy access interventions has a synergistic impact, reducing cumulative number of stunted children by 12.1 (UI: 10.7, 13.7) million compared to business-as-usual, with the largest health benefits experienced by the most disadvantaged children and geographic regions. Findings underscore the importance of complementing climate change mitigation efforts with targeted air quality and energy access policies to concurrently deliver on carbon mitigation, health and air pollution and energy poverty reduction goals in India.
- ItemIntegrate health into decision-making to foster climate action(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2021-4-8) Vandyck, Toon; Rauner, Sebastian; Sampedro, Jon; Lanzi, Elisa; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Springmann, Marco; Dingenen, Rita VanThe COVID-19 pandemic reveals that societies place a high value on healthy lives. Leveraging this momentum to establish a more central role for human health in the policy process will provide further impetus to a sustainable transformation of energy and food systems.
- ItemMachine Learning for Determining Interactions between Air Pollutants and Environmental Parameters in Three Cities of Iran(Basel : MDPI, 2022) Rad, Abdullah Kaviani; Shamshiri, Redmond R.; Naghipour, Armin; Razmi, Seraj-Odeen; Shariati, Mohsen; Golkar, Foroogh; Balasundram, Siva K.Air pollution, as one of the most significant environmental challenges, has adversely affected the global economy, human health, and ecosystems. Consequently, comprehensive research is being conducted to provide solutions to air quality management. Recently, it has been demonstrated that environmental parameters, including temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, air pressure, and vegetation, interact with air pollutants, such as particulate matter (PM), NO2, SO2, O3, and CO, contributing to frameworks for forecasting air quality. The objective of the present study is to explore these interactions in three Iranian metropolises of Tehran, Tabriz, and Shiraz from 2015 to 2019 and develop a machine learning-based model to predict daily air pollution. Three distinct assessment criteria were used to assess the proposed XGBoost model, including R squared (R2), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Preliminary results showed that although air pollutants were significantly associated with meteorological factors and vegetation, the formulated model had low accuracy in predicting (R2PM2.5 = 0.36, R2PM10 = 0.27, R2NO2 = 0.46, R2SO2 = 0.41, R2O3 = 0.52, and R2CO = 0.38). Accordingly, future studies should consider more variables, including emission data from manufactories and traffic, as well as sunlight and wind direction. It is also suggested that strategies be applied to minimize the lack of observational data by considering second-and third-order interactions between parameters, increasing the number of simultaneous air pollution and meteorological monitoring stations, as well as hybrid machine learning models based on proximal and satellite data.
- ItemPopulation ageing and deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution: a global analysis of economic cost(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2021) Yin, Hao; Brauer, Michael; Zhang, Junfeng (Jim); Cai, Wenjia; Navrud, Ståle; Burnett, Richard; Howard, Courtney; Deng, Zhu; Kammen, Daniel M.; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Chen, Kai; Kan, Haidong; Chen, Zhan-Ming; Chen, Bin; Zhang, Ning; Mi, Zhifu; Coffman, D'Maris; Cohen, Aaron J.; Guan, Dabo; Zhang, Qiang; Gong, Peng; Liu, ZhuBackground: The health impacts of ambient air pollution impose large costs on society. Although all people are exposed to air pollution, the older population (ie, those aged ≥60 years) tends to be disproportionally affected. As a result, there is growing concern about the health impacts of air pollution as many countries undergo rapid population ageing. We investigated the spatial and temporal variation in the economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient air pollution and its interaction with population ageing from 2000 to 2016 at global and regional levels. Methods: In this global analysis, we developed an age-adjusted measure of the value of a statistical life-year (VSLY) to estimate the economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution using Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 data and country-level socioeconomic information. First, we estimated the global age-specific and cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) attributable to PM2·5 pollution using the global exposure mortality model and global estimates of exposure at 0·1° × 0·1° (about 11 km × 11 km at the equator) resolution. Second, for each year between 2000 and 2016, we translated the YLLs within each age group into a health-related cost using a country-specific, age-adjusted measure of VSLY. Third, we decomposed the major driving factors that contributed to the temporal change in health costs related to PM2·5. Finally, we did a sensitivity test to analyse the variability of the estimated health costs to four alternative valuation measures. We identified the uncertainty intervals (UIs) from 1000 draws of the parameters and concentration–response functions by age, cause, country, and year. All economic values are reported in 2011 purchasing power parity-adjusted US dollars. All simulations were done with R, version 3.6.0. Findings: Globally, in 2016, PM2·5 was estimated to have caused 8·42 million (95% UI 6·50–10·52) attributable deaths, which was associated with 163·68 million (116·03–219·44) YLLs. In 2016, the global economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution for the older population was US$2·40 trillion (1·89–2·93) accounting for 59% (59–60) of the cost for the total population ($4·09 trillion [3·19–5·05]). The economic cost per capita for the older population was $2739 (2160–3345) in 2016, which was 10 times that of the younger population (ie, those aged <60 years). By assessing the factors that contributed to economic costs, we found that increases in these factors changed the total economic cost by 77% for gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, 21% for population ageing, 16% for population growth, −41% for age-specific mortality, and −0·4% for PM2·5 exposure. Interpretation: The economic cost of ambient PM2·5 borne by the older population almost doubled between 2000 and 2016, driven primarily by GDP growth, population ageing, and population growth. Compared with younger people, air pollution leads to disproportionately higher health costs among older people, even after accounting for their relatively shorter life expectancy and increased disability. As the world's population is ageing, the disproportionate health cost attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution potentially widens the health inequities for older people. Countries with severe air pollution and rapid ageing rates need to take immediate actions to improve air quality. In addition, strategies aimed at enhancing health-care services, especially targeting the older population, could be beneficial for reducing the health costs of ambient air pollution. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China, China Postdoctoral Science Foundation, and Qiushi Foundation.
- ItemAmbient carbon monoxide and daily mortality: a global time-series study in 337 cities(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2021) Chen, Kai; Breitner, Susanne; Wolf, Kathrin; Stafoggia, Massimo; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.; Guo, Yuming; Tong, Shilu; Lavigne, Eric; Matus, Patricia; Valdés, Nicolás; Kan, Haidong; Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.; Ryti, Niilo R. I.; Huber, Veronika; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Nunes, Baltazar; Madureira, Joana; Holobâcă, Iulian Horia; Fratianni, Simona; Kim, Ho; Lee, Whanhee; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Christofer; Ragettli, Martina S.; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Chen, Bing-Yu; Li, Shanshan; Milojevic, Ai; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Schneider, AlexandraBackground Epidemiological evidence on short-term association between ambient carbon monoxide (CO) and mortality is inconclusive and limited to single cities, regions, or countries. Generalisation of results from previous studies is hindered by potential publication bias and different modelling approaches. We therefore assessed the association between short-term exposure to ambient CO and daily mortality in a multicity, multicountry setting. Methods We collected daily data on air pollution, meteorology, and total mortality from 337 cities in 18 countries or regions, covering various periods from 1979 to 2016. All included cities had at least 2 years of both CO and mortality data. We estimated city-specific associations using confounder-adjusted generalised additive models with a quasi-Poisson distribution, and then pooled the estimates, accounting for their statistical uncertainty, using a random-effects multilevel meta-analytical model. We also assessed the overall shape of the exposure–response curve and evaluated the possibility of a threshold below which health is not affected. Findings Overall, a 1 mg/m3 increase in the average CO concentration of the previous day was associated with a 0·91% (95% CI 0·32–1·50) increase in daily total mortality. The pooled exposure–response curve showed a continuously elevated mortality risk with increasing CO concentrations, suggesting no threshold. The exposure–response curve was steeper at daily CO levels lower than 1 mg/m3, indicating greater risk of mortality per increment in CO exposure, and persisted at daily concentrations as low as 0·6 mg/m3 or less. The association remained similar after adjustment for ozone but was attenuated after adjustment for particulate matter or sulphur dioxide, or even reduced to null after adjustment for nitrogen dioxide. Interpretation This international study is by far the largest epidemiological investigation on short-term CO-related mortality. We found significant associations between ambient CO and daily mortality, even at levels well below current air quality guidelines. Further studies are warranted to disentangle its independent effect from other traffic-related pollutants.
- ItemShort term associations of ambient nitrogen dioxide with daily total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality: multilocation analysis in 398 cities(London : BMJ Publ. Group, 2021) Meng, Xia; Liu, Cong; Chen, Renjie; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Milojevic, Ai; Guo, Yuming; Tong, Shilu; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Lavigne, Eric; Correa, Patricia Matus; Ortega, Nicolas Valdes; Osorio, Samuel; Garcia, null; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Orru, Hans; Maasikmets, Marek; Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.; Ryti, Niilo; Huber, Veronika; Schneider, Alexandra; Katsouyanni, Klea; Analitis, Antonis; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Ng, Chris Fook Sheng; Nunes, Baltazar; Teixeira, João Paulo; Holobaca, Iulian Horia; Fratianni, Simona; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Christofer; Ragettli, Martina S.; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Pan, Shih-Chun; Li, Shanshan; Bell, Michelle L.; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Wu, Tangchun; Gasparrini, Antonio; Kan, HaidongObjective To evaluate the short term associations between nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide, using a uniform analytical protocol. Design Two stage, time series approach, with overdispersed generalised linear models and multilevel meta-analysis. Setting 398 cities in 22 low to high income countries/regions. Main outcome measures Daily deaths from total (62.8 million), cardiovascular (19.7 million), and respiratory (5.5 million) causes between 1973 and 2018. Results On average, a 10 μg/m3 increase in NO2 concentration on lag 1 day (previous day) was associated with 0.46% (95% confidence interval 0.36% to 0.57%), 0.37% (0.22% to 0.51%), and 0.47% (0.21% to 0.72%) increases in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. These associations remained robust after adjusting for co-pollutants (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm or ≤2.5 μm (PM10 and PM2.5, respectively), ozone, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide). The pooled concentration-response curves for all three causes were almost linear without discernible thresholds. The proportion of deaths attributable to NO2 concentration above the counterfactual zero level was 1.23% (95% confidence interval 0.96% to 1.51%) across the 398 cities. Conclusions This multilocation study provides key evidence on the independent and linear associations between short term exposure to NO2 and increased risk of total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, suggesting that health benefits would be achieved by tightening the guidelines and regulatory limits of NO2.