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Regional modelling of Saharan dust and biomass-burning smoke, Part 2: Direct radiative forcing and atmospheric dynamic response
The direct radiative forcing and dynamic atmospheric response due to Saharan dust and biomass-burning aerosol particles are presented for a case study during the SAMUM-2 field campaign in January and February 2008. The regional model system COSMO-MUSCAT is used. It allows online interaction of the computed dust and smoke load with the solar and terrestrial radiation and with the model dynamics. Model results of upward solar irradiances are evaluated against airborne radiation measurements in the Cape Verde region. The comparison shows a good agreement for the case of dust and smoke mixture. Dust and smoke particles influence the atmospheric dynamics by changing the radiative heating rates. The related pressure perturbations modify local and synoptic scale air-flow patterns. In the radiative feedback simulations, the Hadley circulation is enhanced and convergence zones occur along the Guinea coast. Thus, the smoke particles spread more than 5◦ further north and the equatorward transport is reduced. Within the convergence zones, Saharan dust and biomass-burning material are more effectively advected towards the Cape Verdes. Given the model uncertainties, the agreement between the modelled and observed aerosol distribution is locally improved when aerosol–radiation interaction is considered.
Ozone–gravity wave interaction in the upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere
The increase in amplitudes of upward propagating gravity waves (GWs) with height due to decreasing density is usually described by exponential growth. Recent measurements show some evidence that the upper stratospheric/lower mesospheric gravity wave potential energy density (GWPED) increases more strongly during the daytime than during the nighttime. This paper suggests that ozone-gravity wave interaction can principally produce such a phenomenon. The coupling between ozone-photochemistry and temperature is particularly strong in the upper stratosphere where the time-mean ozone mixing ratio decreases with height. Therefore, an initial ascent (or descent) of an air parcel must lead to an increase (or decrease) in ozone and in the heating rate compared to the environment, and, hence, to an amplification of the initial wave perturbation. Standard solutions of upward propagating GWs with linear ozone-temperature coupling are formulated, suggesting amplitude amplifications at a specific level during daytime of 5ĝ€¯% to 15ĝ€¯% for low-frequency GWs (periods ≥4ĝ€¯h), as a function of the intrinsic frequency which decreases if ozone-temperature coupling is included. Subsequently, the cumulative amplification during the upward level-by-level propagation leads to much stronger GW amplitudes at upper mesospheric altitudes, i.e., for single low-frequency GWs, up to a factor of 1.5 to 3 in the temperature perturbations and 3 to 9 in the GWPED increasing from summer low to polar latitudes. Consequently, the mean GWPED of a representative range of mesoscale GWs (horizontal wavelengths between 200 and 1100ĝ€¯km, vertical wavelengths between 3 and 9ĝ€¯km) is stronger by a factor of 1.7 to 3.4 (2 to 50ĝ€¯Jĝ€¯kg-1, or 2ĝ€¯% to 50ĝ€¯% in relation to the observed order of 100ĝ€¯Jĝ€¯kg-1, assuming initial GW perturbations of 1 to 2ĝ€¯K in the middle stratosphere). Conclusively, the identified process might be an important component in the middle atmospheric circulation, which has not been considered up to now.
The role of atmospheric rivers in the distribution of heavy precipitation events over North America
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are filaments of extensive water vapor transport in the lower troposphere that play a crucial role in the distribution of freshwater but can also cause natural and economic damage by facilitating heavy precipitation. Here, we investigate the large-scale spatiotemporal synchronization patterns of heavy precipitation events (HPEs) over the western coast and the continental regions of North America (NA), during the period from 1979 to 2018. In particular, we use event synchronization and a complex network approach incorporating varying delays to examine the temporal evolution of spatial patterns of HPEs in the aftermath of land-falling ARs. For that, we employ the SIO-R1 catalog of ARs that landfall on the western coast of NA, ranked in terms of intensity and persistence on an AR-strength scale which varies from level AR1 to AR5, along with daily precipitation estimates from ERA5 with a 0.25'spatial resolution. Our analysis reveals a cascade of synchronized HPEs, triggered by ARs of level AR3 or higher. On the first 3d after an AR makes landfall, HPEs mostly occur and synchronize along the western coast of NA. In the subsequent days, moisture can be transported to central and eastern Canada and cause synchronized but delayed HPEs there. Furthermore, we confirm the robustness of our findings with an additional AR catalog based on a different AR detection method. Finally, analyzing the anomalies of integrated water vapor transport, geopotential height, upper-level meridional wind, and precipitation, we find atmospheric circulation patterns that are consistent with the spatiotemporal evolution of the synchronized HPEs. Revealing the role of ARs in the precipitation patterns over NA will lead to a better understanding of inland HPEs and the effects that changing climate dynamics will have on precipitation occurrence and consequent impacts in the context of a warming atmosphere.
The different stratospheric influence on cold-extremes in Eurasia and North America
The stratospheric polar vortex can influence the tropospheric circulation and thereby winter weather in the mid-latitudes. Weak vortex states, often associated with sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW), have been shown to increase the risk of cold-spells especially over Eurasia, but its role for North American winters is less clear. Using cluster analysis, we show that there are two dominant patterns of increased polar cap heights in the lower stratosphere. Both patterns represent a weak polar vortex but they are associated with different wave mechanisms and different regional tropospheric impacts. The first pattern is zonally symmetric and associated with absorbed upward-propagating wave activity, leading to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and cold-air outbreaks over northern Eurasia. This coupling mechanism is well-documented in the literature and is consistent with the downward migration of the northern annular mode (NAM). The second pattern is zonally asymmetric and linked to downward reflected planetary waves over Canada followed by a negative phase of the Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) and cold-spells in Central Canada and the Great Lakes region. Causal effect network (CEN) analyses confirm the atmospheric pathways associated with this asymmetric pattern. Moreover, our findings suggest the reflective mechanism to be sensitive to the exact region of upward wave-activity fluxes and to be state-dependent on the strength of the vortex. Identifying the causal pathways that operate on weekly to monthly timescales can pave the way for improved sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting of cold spells in the mid-latitudes.
The feedback of midlatitude waves onto the Hadley cell in a simple general circulation model
We present self-consistent comparisons of axissymmetric and 3-dimensional simulations of the tropospheric circulation under idealized physical conditions. These reveal a feedback of transient eddies onto the Hadley circulation which, first, strongly depends on equatorial heating and, second, is in case of realistic heating quite different from prescribed eddy forcing. A quantitative estimation for the eddy-induced mixing of vorticity into the poleward flow of the Hadley cell is given. The proposed relation is in accordance with observations. It is derived from the computational result that eddy momentum flux convergence is of the same order as the equatorward flux of relative vorticity generated by the Hadley circulation. Evaluation of the local budgets of sensible heat gives rise to a clear picture of how the poleward heat transports due to Hadley circulation and transient eddies interlock. This mechanism is found to be essential for an interpretation of the eddy feedback.
Zonal asymmetries in middle atmospheric ozone and water vapour derived from Odin satellite data 2001-2010
Stationary wave patterns in middle atmospheric ozone (O3) and water vapour (H2O) are an important factor in the atmospheric circulation, but there is a strong gap in diagnosing and understanding their configuration and origin. Based on Odin satellite data from 2001 to 2010 we investigate the stationary wave patterns in O3 and H2O as indicated by the seasonal long-term means of the zonally asymmetric components O3* Combining double low line O3-[O3] and H2O* Combining double low line H2O-[H2O] ([O3], [H2O]: zonal means). At mid-and polar latitudes we find a pronounced wave one pattern in both constituents. In the Northern Hemisphere, the wave patterns increase during autumn, maintain their strength during winter and decay during spring, with maximum amplitudes of about 10-20 % of the zonal mean values. During winter, the wave one in O3* shows a maximum over the North Pacific/Aleutians and a minimum over the North Atlantic/Northern Europe and a double-peak structure with enhanced amplitude in the lower and in the upper stratosphere. The wave one in H2O* extends from the lower stratosphere to the upper mesosphere with a westward shift in phase with increasing height including a jump in phase at upper stratosphere altitudes. In the Southern Hemisphere, similar wave patterns occur mainly during southern spring. By comparing the observed wave patterns in O 3* and H2O3* with a linear solution of a steady-state transport equation for a zonally asymmetric tracer component we find that these wave patterns are primarily due to zonally asymmetric transport by geostrophically balanced winds, which are derived from observed temperature profiles. In addition temperature-dependent photochemistry contributes substantially to the spatial structure of the wave pattern in O 3* . Further influences, e.g., zonal asymmetries in eddy mixing processes, are discussed.
Significance of uncertain phasing between the onsets of stadial–interstadial transitions in different Greenland ice core proxies
Different paleoclimate proxy records evidence repeated abrupt climate transitions during previous glacial intervals. These transitions are thought to comprise abrupt warming and increase in local precipitation over Greenland, sudden reorganization of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, and retreat of sea ice in the North Atlantic. The physical mechanism underlying these so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events remains debated. A recent analysis of Greenland ice core proxy records found that transitions in Na+ concentrations and δ18O values are delayed by about 1 decade with respect to corresponding transitions in Ca2+ concentrations and in the annual layer thickness during DO events. These delays are interpreted as a temporal lag of sea-ice retreat and Greenland warming with respect to a synoptic- and hemispheric-scale atmospheric reorganization at the onset of DO events and may thereby help constrain possible triggering mechanisms for the DO events. However, the explanatory power of these results is limited by the uncertainty of the transition onset detection in noisy proxy records. Here, we extend previous work by testing the significance of the reported lags with respect to the null hypothesis that the proposed transition order is in fact not systematically favored. If the detection uncertainties are averaged out, the temporal delays in the δ18O and Na+ transitions with respect to their counterparts in Ca2+ and the annual layer thickness are indeed pairwise statistically significant. In contrast, under rigorous propagation of uncertainty, three statistical tests cannot provide evidence against the null hypothesis. We thus confirm the previously reported tendency of delayed transitions in the δ18O and Na+ concentration records. Yet, given the uncertainties in the determination of the transition onsets, it cannot be decided whether these tendencies are truly the imprint of a prescribed transition order or whether they are due to chance. The analyzed set of DO transitions can therefore not serve as evidence for systematic lead–lag relationships between the transitions in the different proxies, which in turn limits the power of the observed tendencies to constrain possible physical causes of the DO events.
How the extreme 2019-2020 Australian wildfires affected global circulation and adjustments
Wildfires are a significant source of absorbing aerosols in the atmosphere. Extreme fires in particular, such as those during the 2019-2020 Australian wildfire season (Black Summer fires), can have considerable large-scale effects. In this context, the climate impact of extreme wildfires unfolds not only because of the emitted carbon dioxide but also due to smoke aerosol released up to an altitude of 17ĝ€¯km. The overall aerosol effects depend on a variety of factors, such as the amount emitted, the injection height, and the composition of the burned material, and is therefore subject to considerable uncertainty. In the present study, we address the global impact caused by the exceptionally strong and high-reaching smoke emissions from the Australian wildfires using simulations with a global aerosol-climate model. We show that the absorption of solar radiation by the black carbon contained in the emitted smoke led to a shortwave radiative forcing of more than +5ĝ€¯Wm-2 in the southern mid-latitudes of the lower stratosphere. Subsequent adjustment processes in the stratosphere slowed down the diabatically driven meridional circulation, thus redistributing the heating perturbation on a global scale. As a result of these stratospheric adjustments, a positive temperature perturbation developed in both hemispheres, leading to additional longwave radiation emitted back to space. According to the model results, this adjustment occurred in the stratosphere within the first 2 months after the event. At the top of the atmosphere (TOA), the net effective radiative forcing (ERF) averaged over the Southern Hemisphere was initially dominated by the instantaneous positive radiative forcing of about +0.5ĝ€¯Wm-2, for which the positive sign resulted mainly from the presence of clouds above the Southern Ocean. The longwave adjustments led to a compensation of the initially net positive TOA ERF, which is seen in the Southern Hemisphere, the tropics, and the northern mid-latitudes. The simulated changes in the lower stratosphere also affected the upper troposphere through a thermodynamic downward coupling. Subsequently, increased temperatures were also obtained in the upper troposphere, causing a global decrease in relative humidity, cirrus amount, and the ice water path of about 0.2ĝ€¯%. As a result, surface precipitation also decreased by a similar amount, which was accompanied by a weakening of the tropospheric circulation due to the given energetic constraints. In general, it appears that the radiative effects of smoke from single extreme wildfire events can lead to global impacts that affect the interplay of tropospheric and stratospheric budgets in complex ways. This emphasizes that future changes in extreme wildfires need to be included in projections of aerosol radiative forcing.
Reconstructing Late Holocene North Atlantic atmospheric circulation changes using functional paleoclimate networks
Obtaining reliable reconstructions of long-term atmospheric circulation changes in the North Atlantic region presents a persistent challenge to contemporary paleoclimate research, which has been addressed by a multitude of recent studies. In order to contribute a novel methodological aspect to this active field, we apply here evolving functional network analysis, a recently developed tool for studying temporal changes of the spatial co-variability structure of the Earth's climate system, to a set of Late Holocene paleoclimate proxy records covering the last two millennia. The emerging patterns obtained by our analysis are related to long-term changes in the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the region, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). By comparing the time-dependent inter-regional linkage structures of the obtained functional paleoclimate network representations to a recent multi-centennial NAO reconstruction, we identify co-variability between southern Greenland, Svalbard, and Fennoscandia as being indicative of a positive NAO phase, while connections from Greenland and Fennoscandia to central Europe are more pronounced during negative NAO phases. By drawing upon this correspondence, we use some key parameters of the evolving network structure to obtain a qualitative reconstruction of the NAO long-term variability over the entire Common Era (last 2000 years) using a linear regression model trained upon the existing shorter reconstruction.
The rôle of orographically and thermally forced stationary waves in the causation of the residual circulation
Several experiments performed with an idealized troposphere–stratosphere GCM are comparedto estimate the impact of orography and prescribed local heat sources on the residual circulationin the northern winter stratosphere. It is found that only the combined action of orographicand thermal wave forcing in northern midlatitudes is capable of inducing a residual circulationreaching continuously from tropical to polar latitudes at stratospheric altitudes. Intensificationsof the residual circulation in response to modified forcing of stationary waves are generallyassociated with, firstly, a reduced polar night jet accompanied by enhanced easterlies inlow and summer hemispheric latitudes and, secondly, substantial warming of the polar nightstratosphere completely compensated by cooling in the tropics and subtropics.