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- ItemGlobal warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2020) Wunderling, Nico; Willeit, Matteo; Donges, Jonathan F.; Winkelmann, RicardaSeveral large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 °C (interquartile range: 0.39−0.46 °C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales.
- ItemA critical humidity threshold for monsoon transitions(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Schewe, J.; Levermann, A.; Cheng, H.Monsoon systems around the world are governed by the so-called moisture-advection feedback. Here we show that, in a minimal conceptual model, this feedback implies a critical threshold with respect to the atmospheric specific humidity qo over the ocean adjacent to the monsoon region. If qo falls short of this critical value qoc, monsoon rainfall over land cannot be sustained. Such a case could occur if evaporation from the ocean was reduced, e.g. due to low sea surface temperatures. Within the restrictions of the conceptual model, we estimate qoc from present-day reanalysis data for four major monsoon systems, and demonstrate how this concept can help understand abrupt variations in monsoon strength on orbital timescales as found in proxy records.
- ItemGlacial CO 2 cycle as a succession of key physical and biogeochemical processes(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Brovkin, V.; Ganopolski, A.; Archer, D.; Munhoven, G.During glacial-interglacial cycles, atmospheric CO2 concentration varied by about 100 ppmv in amplitude. While testing mechanisms that have led to the low glacial CO2 level could be done in equilibrium model experiments, an ultimate goal is to explain CO2 changes in transient simulations through the complete glacial-interglacial cycle. The computationally efficient Earth System model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 is used to simulate global biogeochemistry over the last glacial cycle (126 kyr). The physical core of the model (atmosphere, ocean, land and ice sheets) is driven by orbital changes and reconstructed radiative forcing from greenhouses gases, ice, and aeolian dust. The carbon cycle model is able to reproduce the main features of the CO2 changes: a 50 ppmv CO2 drop during glacial inception, a minimum concentration at the last glacial maximum 80 ppmv lower than the Holocene value, and an abrupt 60 ppmv CO2 rise during the deglaciation. The model deep ocean δ13C also resembles reconstructions from deep-sea cores. The main drivers of atmospheric CO2 evolve in time: changes in sea surface temperatures and in the volume of bottom water of southern origin control atmospheric CO2 during the glacial inception and deglaciation; changes in carbonate chemistry and marine biology are dominant during the first and second parts of the glacial cycle, respectively. These feedback mechanisms could also significantly impact the ultimate climate response to the anthropogenic perturbation.