2010, Drastig, K., Prochnow, A., Kraatz, S., Klauss, H., Plöchl, M.

The working group "Adaptation to Climate Change" at the Leibniz-Institute for Agricultural Engineering Potsdam-Bornim (ATB) is introduced. This group calculates the water footprint for agricultural processes and farms, distinguished into green water footprint, blue water footprint, and dilution water footprint. The green and blue water demand of a dairy farm plays a pivotal role in the regional water balance. Considering already existing and forthcoming climate change effects there is a need to determine the water cycle in the field and in housing for process chain optimisation for the adaptation to an expected increasing water scarcity. Resulting investments to boost water productivity and to improve water use efficiency in milk production are two pathways to adapt to climate change effects. In this paper the calculation of blue water demand for dairy farming in Brandenburg (Germany) is presented. The water used for feeding, milk processing, and servicing of cows over the time period of ten years was assessed in our study. The preliminary results of the calculation of the direct blue water footprint shows a decreasing water demand in the dairy production from the year 1999 with 5.98×109 L/yr to a water demand of 5.00×109 L/yr in the year 2008 in Brandenburg because of decreasing animal numbers and an improved average milk yield per cow. Improved feeding practices and shifted breeding to greater-volume producing Holstein-Friesian cow allow the production of milk in a more water sustainable way. The mean blue water consumption for the production of 1 kg milk in the time period between 1999 to 2008 was 3.94±0.29 L. The main part of the consumed water seems to stem from indirect used green water for the production of feed for the cows.

2018, Weng, W., Luedeke, M., Zemp, D., Lakes, T., Kropp, J.

The abundant evapotranspiration provided by the Amazon forests is an important component of the hydrological cycle, both regionally and globally. Since the last century, deforestation and expanding agricultural activities have been changing the ecosystem and its provision of moisture to the atmosphere. However, it remains uncertain how the ongoing land use change will influence rainfall, runoff, and water availability as findings from previous studies differ. Using moisture tracking experiments based on observational data, we provide a spatially detailed analysis recognizing potential teleconnection between source and sink regions of atmospheric moisture. We apply land use scenarios in upwind moisture sources and quantify the corresponding rainfall and runoff changes in downwind moisture sinks. We find spatially varying responses of water regimes to land use changes, which may explain the diverse results from previous studies. Parts of the Peruvian Amazon and western Bolivia are identified as the sink areas most sensitive to land use change in the Amazon and we highlight the current water stress by Amazonian land use change on these areas in terms of the water availability. Furthermore, we also identify the influential source areas where land use change may considerably reduce a given target sink's water reception (from our example of the Ucayali River basin outlet, rainfall by 5–12ĝ€% and runoff by 19–50ĝ€% according to scenarios). Sensitive sinks and influential sources are therefore suggested as hotspots for achieving sustainable land–water management.

2017, Zemp, D.C., Schleussner, C.-F., Barbosa, H.M.J., Hirota, M., Montade, V., Sampaio, G., Staal, A., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Rammig, A.

Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complex-network approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.

2013, Gerten, D.

This paper argues that the interplay of water, carbon and vegetation dynamics fundamentally links some global trends in the current and conceivable future Anthropocene, such as cropland expansion, freshwater use, and climate change and its impacts. Based on a review of recent literature including geographically explicit simulation studies with the process-based LPJmL global biosphere model, it demonstrates that the connectivity of water and vegetation dynamics is vital for water security, food security and (terrestrial) ecosystem dynamics alike. The water limitation of net primary production of both natural and agricultural plants - already pronounced in many regions - is shown to increase in many places under projected climate change, though this development is partially offset by water-saving direct CO2 effects. Natural vegetation can to some degree adapt dynamically to higher water limitation, but agricultural crops usually require some form of active management to overcome it - among them irrigation, soil conservation and eventually shifts of cropland to areas that are less water-limited due to more favourable climatic conditions. While crucial to secure food production for a growing world population, such human interventions in water-vegetation systems have, as also shown, repercussions on the water cycle. Indeed, land use changes are shown to be the second-most important influence on the terrestrial water balance in recent times. Furthermore, climate change (warming and precipitation changes) will in many regions increase irrigation demand and decrease water availability, impeding rainfed and irrigated food production (if not CO2 effects counterbalance this impact - which is unlikely at least in poorly managed systems). Drawing from these exemplary investigations, some research perspectives on how to further improve our knowledge of human-water-vegetation interactions in the Anthropocene are outlined.

2014, Volkholz, J., Grossman-Clarke, S., Hattermann, F.F., Böhm, U.

For investigations of feedbacks between the hydrological cycle and the climate system, we assess the performance of the regional climate model CCLM in reconstructing the water balance of the Elbe river catchment. To this end long-term mean precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff are evaluated. Extremes (90th percentile) are also considered in the case of precipitation. The data are provided by a CCLM presentday simulation for Europe that was driven by large-scale global reanalyses. The quality of the model results is analyzed with respect to suitable reference data for the period 1970 to 1999. The principal components of the hydrological cycle and their seasonal variations were captured well. Basin accumulated, averaged daily precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff differ by no more than 10% from observations. Larger deviations occur mainly in summer, and at specific areas.