8 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 8 of 8
- ItemSimilarity estimators for irregular and age-uncertain time series(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2014) Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.Paleoclimate time series are often irregularly sampled and age uncertain, which is an important technical challenge to overcome for successful reconstruction of past climate variability and dynamics. Visual comparison and interpolation-based linear correlation approaches have been used to infer dependencies from such proxy time series. While the first is subjective, not measurable and not suitable for the comparison of many data sets at a time, the latter introduces interpolation bias, and both face difficulties if the underlying dependencies are nonlinear. In this paper we investigate similarity estimators that could be suitable for the quantitative investigation of dependencies in irregular and age-uncertain time series. We compare the Gaussian-kernel-based cross-correlation (gXCF, Rehfeld et al., 2011) and mutual information (gMI, Rehfeld et al., 2013) against their interpolation-based counterparts and the new event synchronization function (ESF). We test the efficiency of the methods in estimating coupling strength and coupling lag numerically, using ensembles of synthetic stalagmites with short, autocorrelated, linear and nonlinearly coupled proxy time series, and in the application to real stalagmite time series. In the linear test case, coupling strength increases are identified consistently for all estimators, while in the nonlinear test case the correlation-based approaches fail. The lag at which the time series are coupled is identified correctly as the maximum of the similarity functions in around 60–55% (in the linear case) to 53–42% (for the nonlinear processes) of the cases when the dating of the synthetic stalagmite is perfectly precise. If the age uncertainty increases beyond 5% of the time series length, however, the true coupling lag is not identified more often than the others for which the similarity function was estimated. Age uncertainty contributes up to half of the uncertainty in the similarity estimation process. Time series irregularity contributes less, particularly for the adapted Gaussian-kernel-based estimators and the event synchronization function. The introduced link strength concept summarizes the hypothesis test results and balances the individual strengths of the estimators: while gXCF is particularly suitable for short and irregular time series, gMI and the ESF can identify nonlinear dependencies. ESF could, in particular, be suitable to study extreme event dynamics in paleoclimate records. Programs to analyze paleoclimatic time series for significant dependencies are included in a freely available software toolbox.
- ItemDigital IIR filters design using differential evolution algorithm with a controllable probabilistic population size(San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2012) Zhu, W.; Fang, J.-A.; Tang, Y.; Zhang, W.; Du, W.Design of a digital infinite-impulse-response (IIR) filter is the process of synthesizing and implementing a recursive filter network so that a set of prescribed excitations results a set of desired responses. However, the error surface of IIR filters is usually non-linear and multi-modal. In order to find the global minimum indeed, an improved differential evolution (DE) is proposed for digital IIR filter design in this paper. The suggested algorithm is a kind of DE variants with a controllable probabilistic (CPDE) population size. It considers the convergence speed and the computational cost simultaneously by nonperiodic partial increasing or declining individuals according to fitness diversities. In addition, we discuss as well some important aspects for IIR filter design, such as the cost function value, the influence of (noise) perturbations, the convergence rate and successful percentage, the parameter measurement, etc. As to the simulation result, it shows that the presented algorithm is viable and comparable. Compared with six existing State-of-the-Art algorithms-based digital IIR filter design methods obtained by numerical experiments, CPDE is relatively more promising and competitive.
- ItemAn electronic analog of synthetic genetic networks(San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2011) Hellen, E.H.; Volkov, E.; Kurths, J.; Dana, S.K.An electronic analog of a synthetic genetic network known as the repressilator is proposed. The repressilator is a synthetic biological clock consisting of a cyclic inhibitory network of three negative regulatory genes which produces oscillations in the expressed protein concentrations. Compared to previous circuit analogs of the repressilator, the circuit here takes into account more accurately the kinetics of gene expression, inhibition, and protein degradation. A good agreement between circuit measurements and numerical prediction is observed. The circuit allows for easy control of the kinetic parameters thereby aiding investigations of large varieties of potential dynamics.
- ItemScheme for calculation of multi-layer cloudiness and precipitation for climate models of intermediate complexity(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2013) Eliseev, A.V.; Coumou, D.; Chernokulsky, A.V.; Petoukhov, V.; Petri, S.In this study we present a scheme for calculating the characteristics of multi-layer cloudiness and precipitation for Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs). This scheme considers three-layer stratiform cloudiness and single-column convective clouds. It distinguishes between ice and droplet clouds as well. Precipitation is calculated by using cloud lifetime, which depends on cloud type and phase as well as on statistics of synoptic and convective disturbances. The scheme is tuned to observations by using an ensemble simulation forced by the ERA-40-derived climatology for 1979–2001. Upon calibration, the scheme realistically reproduces basic features of fields of cloud fractions, cloud water path, and precipitation. The simulated globally and annually averaged total cloud fraction is 0.59, and the simulated globally averaged annual precipitation is 100 cm yr−1. Both values agree with empirically derived values. The simulated cloud water path is too small, probably because the simulated vertical extent of stratiform clouds is too small. Geographical distribution and seasonal changes of calculated cloud fraction and precipitation are broadly realistic as well. However, some important regional biases still remain in the scheme, e.g. too little precipitation in the tropics. We discuss possibilities for future improvements in the scheme.
- ItemOrder patterns networks (orpan) - A method to estimate time-evolving functional connectivity from multivariate time series(Lausanne : Frontiers Research Foundation, 2012) Schinkel, S.; Zamora-López, G.; Dimigen, O.; Sommer, W.; Kurths, J.Complex networks provide an excellent framework for studying the function of the human brain activity. Yet estimating functional networks from measured signals is not trivial, especially if the data is non-stationary and noisy as it is often the case with physiological recordings. In this article we propose a method that uses the local rank structure of the data to define functional links in terms of identical rank structures. The method yields temporal sequences of networks which permits to trace the evolution of the functional connectivity during the time course of the observation. We demonstrate the potentials of this approach with model data as well as with experimental data from an electrophysiological study on language processing.
- ItemBistable systems with stochastic noise: Virtues and limits of effective one-dimensional Langevin equations(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2012) Lucarini, V.; Faranda, D.; Willeit, M.The understanding of the statistical properties and of the dynamics of multistable systems is gaining more and more importance in a vast variety of scientific fields. This is especially relevant for the investigation of the tipping points of complex systems. Sometimes, in order to understand the time series of given observables exhibiting bimodal distributions, simple one-dimensional Langevin models are fitted to reproduce the observed statistical properties, and used to investing-ate the projected dynamics of the observable. This is of great relevance for studying potential catastrophic changes in the properties of the underlying system or resonant behaviours like those related to stochastic resonance-like mechanisms. In this paper, we propose a framework for encasing this kind of studies, using simple box models of the oceanic circulation and choosing as observable the strength of the thermohaline circulation. We study the statistical properties of the transitions between the two modes of operation of the thermohaline circulation under symmetric boundary forcings and test their agreement with simplified one-dimensional phenomenological theories. We extend our analysis to include stochastic resonance-like amplification processes. We conclude that fitted one-dimensional Langevin models, when closely scrutinised, may result to be more ad-hoc than they seem, lacking robustness and/or well-posedness. They should be treated with care, more as an empiric descriptive tool than as methodology with predictive power.
- ItemA human development framework for CO 2 reductions(San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2011) Costa, L.; Rybski, D.; Kropp, J.P.Although developing countries are called to participate in CO 2 emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation, extrapolating the HDI, and using three population scenarios, the cumulative CO 2 emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained, we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world's population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular, 300 Gt of cumulative CO 2 emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20 % to 30 % of previously calculated CO 2 budgets limiting global warming to 2°C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO 2 reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2°C target after a particular development threshold is reached. For example, in each time step of five years, countries with an HDI of 0.85 would need to reduce their per capita emissions by approx. 17% and countries with an HDI of 0.9 by 33 %. Under this approach, global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100 Gt of CO 2. These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2°C.
- ItemParameterization for subgrid-scale motion of ice-shelf calving fronts(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2011) Albrecht, T.; Martin, M.; Haseloff, M.; Winkelmann, R.; Levermann, A.In order to explore the response of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) to climate change on long (centennial to multi-millennial) time scales, a regional energy-moisture balance model has been developed. This model simulates seasonal variations of temperature and precipitation over Greenland and explicitly accounts for elevation and albedo feedbacks. From these fields, the annual mean surface temperature and surface mass balance can be determined and used to force an ice sheet model. The melt component of the surface mass balance is computed here using both a positive degree day approach and a more physically-based alternative that includes insolation and albedo explicitly. As a validation of the climate model, we first simulated temperature and precipitation over Greenland for the prescribed, present-day topography. Our simulated climatology compares well to observations and does not differ significantly from that of a simple parameterization used in many previous simulations. Furthermore, the calculated surface mass balance using both melt schemes falls within the range of recent regional climate model results. For a prescribed, ice-free state, the differences in simulated climatology between the regional energy-moisture balance model and the simple parameterization become significant, with our model showing much stronger summer warming. When coupled to a three-dimensional ice sheet model and initialized with present-day conditions, the two melt schemes both allow realistic simulations of the present-day GIS.