2005, Haas, A., Jaeger, C.

When insurance firms, energy companies, governments, NGOs, and other agents strive to manage climatic risks, it is by no way clear what the aggregate outcome should and will be. As a framework for investigating this subject, we present the LAGOM model family. It is based on modules depicting learning social agents. For managing climate risks, our agents use second order probabilities and update them by means of a Bayesian mechanism while differing in priors and risk aversion. The interactions between these modules and the aggregate outcomes of their actions are implemented using further modules. The software system is implemented as a series of parallel processes using the CIAMn approach. It is possible to couple modules irrespective of the language they are written in, the operating system under which they are run, and the physical location of the machine

2013, Mouchel-Vallon, C., Bräuer, P., Camredon, M., Valorso, R., Madronich, S., Hermann, M., Aumont, B.

The gas phase oxidation of organic species is a multigenerational process involving a large number of secondary compounds. Most secondary organic species are water-soluble multifunctional oxygenated molecules. The fully explicit chemical mechanism GECKO-A (Generator of Explicit Chemistry and Kinetics of Organics in the Atmosphere) is used to describe the oxidation of organics in the gas phase and their mass transfer to the aqueous phase. The oxidation of three hydrocarbons of atmospheric interest (isoprene, octane and α-pinene) is investigated for various NOx conditions. The simulated oxidative trajectories are examined in a new two dimensional space defined by the mean oxidation state and the solubility. The amount of dissolved organic matter was found to be very low (yield less than 2% on carbon atom basis) under a water content typical of deliquescent aerosols. For cloud water content, 50% (isoprene oxidation) to 70% (octane oxidation) of the carbon atoms are found in the aqueous phase after the removal of the parent hydrocarbons for low NOx conditions. For high NOx conditions, this ratio is only 5% in the isoprene oxidation case, but remains large for α-pinene and octane oxidation cases (40% and 60%, respectively). Although the model does not yet include chemical reactions in the aqueous phase, much of this dissolved organic matter should be processed in cloud drops and modify both oxidation rates and the speciation of organic species.

2021, Sakschewski, Boris, Bloh, Werner von, Drüke, Markus, Sörensson, Anna Amelia, Ruscica, Romina, Langerwisch, Fanny, Billing, Maik, Bereswill, Sarah, Hirota, Marina, Oliveira, Rafael Silva, Heinke, Jens, Thonicke, Kirsten

A variety of modelling studies have suggested tree rooting depth as a key variable to explain evapotranspiration rates, productivity and the geographical distribution of evergreen forests in tropical South America. However, none of those studies have acknowledged resource investment, timing and physical constraints of tree rooting depth within a competitive environment, undermining the ecological realism of their results. Here, we present an approach of implementing variable rooting strategies and dynamic root growth into the LPJmL4.0 (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land) dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) and apply it to tropical and sub-tropical South America under contemporary climate conditions. We show how competing rooting strategies which underlie the trade-off between above- and below-ground carbon investment lead to more realistic simulation of intra-annual productivity and evapotranspiration and consequently of forest cover and spatial biomass distribution. We find that climate and soil depth determine a spatially heterogeneous pattern of mean rooting depth and below-ground biomass across the study region. Our findings support the hypothesis that the ability of evergreen trees to adjust their rooting systems to seasonally dry climates is crucial to explaining the current dominance, productivity and evapotranspiration of evergreen forests in tropical South America.

2011, Kulmala, M., Asmi, A., Lappalainen, H.K., Carslaw, K.S., Pöschl, U., Baltensperger, U., Hov, Ø., Brenquier, J.-L., Pandis, S.N., Facchini, M.C., Hansson, H.-C., Wiedensohler, A., O'Dowd, C.D., Boers, R., Boucher, O., de Leeuw, G., Denier van der Gon, H.A.C., Feichter, J., Krejci, R., Laj, P., Lihavainen, H., Lohmann, U., McFiggans, G., Mentel, T., Pilinis, C., Riipinen, I., Schulz, M., Stohl, A., Swietlicki, E., Vignati, E., Alves, C., Amann, M., Ammann, M., Arabas, S., Artaxo, P., Baars, H., Beddows, D.C.S., Bergström, R., Beukes, J.P., Bilde, M., Burkhart, J.F., Canonaco, F., Clegg, S.L., Coe, H., Crumeyrolle, S., D'Anna, B., Decesari, S., Gilardoni, S., Fischer, M., Fjaeraa, A.M., Fountoukis, C., George, C., Gomes, L., Halloran, P., Hamburger, T., Harrison, R.M., Herrmann, H., Hoffmann, T., Hoose, C., Hu, M., Hyvärinen, A., Hõrrak, U., Iinuma, Y., Iversen, T., Josipovic, M., Kanakidou, M., Kiendler-Scharr, A., Kirkevåg, A., Kiss, G., Klimont, Z., Kolmonen, P., Komppula, M., Kristjánsson, J.-E., Laakso, L., Laaksonen, A., Labonnote, L., Lanz, V.A., Lehtinen, K.E.J., Rizzo, L.V., Makkonen, R., Manninen, H.E., McMeeking, G., Merikanto, J., Minikin, A., Mirme, S., Morgan, W.T., Nemitz, E., O'Donnell, D., Panwar, T.S., Pawlowska, H., Petzold, A., Pienaar, J.J., Pio, C., Plass-Duelmer, C., Prévôt, A.S.H., Pryor, S., Reddington, C.L., Roberts, G., Rosenfeld, D., Schwarz, J., Seland, Ø., Sellegri, K., Shen, X.J., Shiraiwa, M., Siebert, H., Sierau, B., Simpson, D., Sun, J.Y., Topping, D., Tunved, P., Vaattovaara, P., Vakkari, V., Veefkind, J.P., Visschedijk, A., Vuollekoski, H., Vuolo, R., Wehner, B., Wildt, J., Woodward, S., Worsnop, D.R., van Zadelhoff, G.-J., Zardini, A.A., Zhang, K., van Zyl, P.G., Kerminen, V.-M.

In this paper we describe and summarize the main achievements of the European Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality Interactions project (EUCAARI). EUCAARI started on 1 January 2007 and ended on 31 December 2010 leaving a rich legacy including: (a) a comprehensive database with a year of observations of the physical, chemical and optical properties of aerosol particles over Europe, (b) comprehensive aerosol measurements in four developing countries, (c) a database of airborne measurements of aerosols and clouds over Europe during May 2008, (d) comprehensive modeling tools to study aerosol processes fron nano to global scale and their effects on climate and air quality. In addition a new Pan-European aerosol emissions inventory was developed and evaluated, a new cluster spectrometer was built and tested in the field and several new aerosol parameterizations and computations modules for chemical transport and global climate models were developed and evaluated. These achievements and related studies have substantially improved our understanding and reduced the uncertainties of aerosol radiative forcing and air quality-climate interactions. The EUCAARI results can be utilized in European and global environmental policy to assess the aerosol impacts and the corresponding abatement strategies.

2006, Hellmuth, O.

In Paper I of four papers, a revised columnar high-order model to investigate gas-aerosol-turbulence interactions in the convective boundary layer (CBL) was proposed. In Paper II, the model capability to predict first-, second- and third-order moments of meteorological variables in the CBL was demonstrated using available observational data. In the present Paper III, the high-order modelling concept is extended to sulphur and ammonia chemistry as well as to aerosol dynamics. Based on the previous CBL simulation, a feasibility study is performed using two "clean air mass" scenarios with an emission source at the ground but low aerosol background concentration. Such scenarios synoptically correspond to the advection of fresh post-frontal air in an anthropogenically influenced region. The aim is to evaluate the time-height evolution of ultrafine condensation nuclei (UCNs) and to elucidate the interactions between meteorological and physicochemical variables in a CBL column. The scenarios differ in the treatment of new particle formation (NPF), whereas homogeneous nucleation according to the classical nucleation theory (CNT) is considered. The first scenario considers nucleation of a binary system consisting of water vapour and sulphuric acid (H2SO4) vapour, the second one nucleation of a ternary system additionally involving ammonia (NH3). Here, the two synthetic scenarios are discussed in detail, whereas special attention is payed to the role of turbulence in the formation of the typical UCN burst behaviour, that can often be observed in the surface layer. The intercomparison of the two scenarios reveals large differences in the evolution of the UCN number concentration in the surface layer as well as in the time-height cross-sections of first-order moments and double correlation terms. Although in both cases the occurrence of NPF bursts could be simulated, the burst characteristics and genesis of the bursts are completely different. It is demonstrated, that observations from the surface layer alone are not conclusive to elucidate the origin of newly formed particles. This is also true with respect to the interpretation of box modelling studies. The binary and ternary NPF bursts observed in the surface layer differ with respect to burst amplitude and phase. New particles simulated in the binary scenario are formed in the forenoon in the upper part of the growing CBL, followed by turbulence-induced top-down transport. Hence, with respect to the burst observation site in the surface layer, new particles are formed ex situ. In opposite to this, the ternary case reveals a much more complex pattern. Here, NPF is initiated in the early morning hours in the surface layer, when temperature (T) is low and relative humidity (RH), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and NH3 concentrations are high, hence new particles are formed in situ. Shortly after that, ex situ NPF in the free troposphere sets in, followed by entrainment and top-down diffusion of newly formed particles into the surface layer. Altogether, these processes mainly contribute to the formation of a strong burst in the morning hours in the ternary scenario. While the time-height cross-section of the binary nucleation rate resembles a "blob"-like evolution pattern, the ternary one resembles a "sucking tube"-like pattern. The time-height cross-sections of the flux pattern and double correlations could be plausibly interpreted in terms of CBL turbulence and entrainment/detrainment processes both in the binary and in the ternary case. Although the present approach is a pure conceptual one, it shows the feasibility to simulate gas-aerosol-turbulence interactions in the CBL. Prior to a dedicated verification/validation study, further attempts are necessary to consider a more advanced description of the formation and activation of thermodynamically stable clusters according to modern concepts proposed by Kulmala et al. (2000), Kulmala (2003) and Kulmala et al. (2004a).

2012, Paasonen, P., Olenius, T., Kupiainen, O., Kurtén, T., Petäjä, T., Birmili, W., Hamed, A., Hu, M., Huey, L.G., Plass-Duelmer, C., Smith, J.N., Wiedensohler, A., Loukonen, V., McGrath, M.J., Ortega, I.K., Laaksonen, A., Vehkamäki, H., Kerminen, V.-M., Kulmala, M.

Sulphuric acid is a key component in atmospheric new particle formation. However, sulphuric acid alone does not form stable enough clusters to initiate particle formation in atmospheric conditions. Strong bases, such as amines, have been suggested to stabilize sulphuric acid clusters and thus participate in particle formation. We modelled the formation rate of clusters with two sulphuric acid and two amine molecules (JA2B2) at varying atmospherically relevant conditions with respect to concentrations of sulphuric acid ([H2SO4]), dimethylamine ([DMA]) and trimethylamine ([TMA]), temperature and relative humidity (RH). We also tested how the model results change if we assume that the clusters with two sulphuric acid and two amine molecules would act as seeds for heterogeneous nucleation of organic vapours (other than amines) with higher atmospheric concentrations than sulphuric acid. The modelled formation rates JA2B2 were functions of sulphuric acid concentration with close to quadratic dependence, which is in good agreement with atmospheric observations of the connection between the particle formation rate and sulphuric acid concentration. The coefficients KA2B2 connecting the cluster formation rate and sulphuric acid concentrations as JA2B2=KA2B2[H2SO4]2 turned out to depend also on amine concentrations, temperature and relative humidity. We compared the modelled coefficients KA2B2 with the corresponding coefficients calculated from the atmospheric observations (Kobs) from environments with varying temperatures and levels of anthropogenic influence. By taking into account the modelled behaviour of JA2B2 as a function of [H2SO4], temperature and RH, the atmospheric particle formation rate was reproduced more closely than with the traditional semi-empirical formulae based on sulphuric acid concentration only. The formation rates of clusters with two sulphuric acid and two amine molecules with different amine compositions (DMA or TMA or one of both) had different responses to varying meteorological conditions and concentrations of vapours participating in particle formation. The observed inverse proportionality of the coefficient Kobs with RH and temperature agreed best with the modelled coefficient KA2B2 related to formation of a cluster with two H2SO4 and one or two TMA molecules, assuming that these clusters can grow in collisions with abundant organic vapour molecules. In case this assumption is valid, our results suggest that the formation rate of clusters with at least two of both sulphuric acid and amine molecules might be the rate-limiting step for atmospheric particle formation. More generally, our analysis elucidates the sensitivity of the atmospheric particle formation rate to meteorological variables and concentrations of vapours participating in particle formation (also other than H2SO4).

2016, Kalesse, Heike, Szyrmer, Wanda, Kneifel, Stefan, Kollias, Pavlos, Luke, Edward

Radar Doppler spectra measurements are exploited to study a riming event when precipitating ice from a seeder cloud sediment through a supercooled liquid water (SLW) layer. The focus is on the "golden sample" case study for this type of analysis based on observations collected during the deployment of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program's (ARM) mobile facility AMF2 at Hyytiälä, Finland, during the Biogenic Aerosols – Effects on Clouds and Climate (BAECC) field campaign. The presented analysis of the height evolution of the radar Doppler spectra is a state-of-the-art retrieval with profiling cloud radars in SLW layers beyond the traditional use of spectral moments. Dynamical effects are considered by following the particle population evolution along slanted tracks that are caused by horizontal advection of the cloud under wind shear conditions. In the SLW layer, the identified liquid peak is used as an air motion tracer to correct the Doppler spectra for vertical air motion and the ice peak is used to study the radar profiles of rimed particles. A 1-D steady-state bin microphysical model is constrained using the SLW and air motion profiles and cloud top radar observations. The observed radar moment profiles of the rimed snow can be simulated reasonably well by the model, but not without making several assumptions about the ice particle concentration and the relative role of deposition and aggregation. This suggests that in situ observations of key ice properties are needed to complement the profiling radar observations before process-oriented studies can effectively evaluate ice microphysical parameterizations.

2011, Niedermeier, D., Shaw, R.A., Hartmann, S., Wex, H., Clauss, T., Voigtländer, J., Stratmann, F.

Heterogeneous ice nucleation, a primary pathway for ice formation in the atmosphere, has been described alternately as being stochastic, in direct analogy with homogeneous nucleation, or singular, with ice nuclei initiating freezing at deterministic temperatures. We present an idealized, conceptual model to explore the transition between stochastic and singular ice nucleation. This "soccer ball" model treats particles as being covered with surface sites (patches of finite area) characterized by different nucleation barriers, but with each surface site following the stochastic nature of ice embryo formation. The model provides a phenomenological explanation for seemingly contradictory experimental results obtained in our research groups. Even with ice nucleation treated fundamentally as a stochastic process this process can be masked by the heterogeneity of surface properties, as might be typical for realistic atmospheric particle populations. Full evaluation of the model findings will require experiments with well characterized ice nucleating particles and the ability to vary both temperature and waiting time for freezing.

2017, Solomos, Stavros, Ansmann, Albert, Mamouri, Rodanthi-Elisavet, Binietoglou, Ioannis, Patlakas, Platon, Marinou, Eleni, Amiridis, Vassilis

The extreme dust storm that affected the Middle East and the eastern Mediterranean in September 2015 resulted in record-breaking dust loads over Cyprus with aerosol optical depth exceeding 5.0 at 550ĝ€nm. We analyse this event using profiles from the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET) and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO), geostationary observations from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI), and high-resolution simulations from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). The analysis of modelling and remote sensing data reveals the main mechanisms that resulted in the generation and persistence of the dust cloud over the Middle East and Cyprus. A combination of meteorological and surface processes is found, including (a) the development of a thermal low in the area of Syria that results in unstable atmospheric conditions and dust mobilization in this area, (b) the convective activity over northern Iraq that triggers the formation of westward-moving haboobs that merge with the previously elevated dust layer, and (c) the changes in land use due to war in the areas of northern Iraq and Syria that enhance dust erodibility.

2017, Ciarelli, Giancarlo, Aksoyoglu, Sebnem, El Haddad, Imad, Bruns, Emily A., Crippa, Monica, Poulain, Laurent, Äijälä, Mikko, Carbone, Samara, Freney, Evelyn, O'Dowd, Colin, Baltensperger, Urs, Prévôt, André S. H.

We evaluated a modified VBS (volatility basis set) scheme to treat biomass-burning-like organic aerosol (BBOA) implemented in CAMx (Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions). The updated scheme was parameterized with novel wood combustion smog chamber experiments using a hybrid VBS framework which accounts for a mixture of wood burning organic aerosol precursors and their further functionalization and fragmentation in the atmosphere. The new scheme was evaluated for one of the winter EMEP intensive campaigns (February-March 2009) against aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) measurements performed at 11 sites in Europe. We found a considerable improvement for the modelled organic aerosol (OA) mass compared to our previous model application with the mean fractional bias (MFB) reduced from -61 to -29 %. We performed model-based source apportionment studies and compared results against positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis performed on OA AMS data. Both model and observations suggest that OA was mainly of secondary origin at almost all sites. Modelled secondary organic aerosol (SOA) contributions to total OA varied from 32 to 88% (with an average contribution of 62 %) and absolute concentrations were generally under-predicted. Modelled primary hydrocarbon-like organic aerosol (HOA) and primary biomass-burning-like aerosol (BBPOA) fractions contributed to a lesser extent (HOA from 3 to 30 %, and BBPOA from 1 to 39 %) with average contributions of 13 and 25 %, respectively. Modelled BBPOA fractions were found to represent 12 to 64% of the total residential-heating-related OA, with increasing contributions at stations located in the northern part of the domain. Source apportionment studies were performed to assess the contribution of residential and non-residential combustion precursors to the total SOA. Non-residential combustion and road transportation sector contributed about 30-40% to SOA formation (with increasing contributions at urban and near industrialized sites), whereas residential combustion (mainly related to wood burning) contributed to a larger extent, around 60-70 %. Contributions to OA from residential combustion precursors in different volatility ranges were also assessed: our results indicate that residential combustion gas-phase precursors in the semivolatile range (SVOC) contributed from 6 to 30 %, with higher contributions predicted at stations located in the southern part of the domain. On the other hand, the oxidation products of higher-volatility precursors (the sum of intermediate-volatility compounds (IVOCs) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs)) contribute from 15 to 38% with no specific gradient among the stations. Although the new parameterization leads to a better agreement between model results and observations, it still underpredicts the SOA fraction, suggesting that uncertainties in the new scheme and other sources and/or formation mechanisms remain to be elucidated. Moreover, a more detailed characterization of the semivolatile components of the emissions is needed.