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- ItemLidar Observations of Stratospheric Gravity Waves From 2011 to 2015 at McMurdo (77.84°S, 166.69°E), Antarctica: 2. Potential Energy Densities, Lognormal Distributions, and Seasonal Variations(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2018-8-6) Chu, Xinzhao; Zhao, Jian; Lu, Xian; Harvey, V. Lynn; Jones, R. Michael; Becker, Erich; Chen, Cao; Fong, Weichun; Yu, Zhibin; Roberts, Brendan R.; Dörnbrack, AndreasFive years of Fe Boltzmann lidar's Rayleigh temperature data from 2011 to 2015 at McMurdo are used to characterize gravity wave potential energy mass density (Epm), potential energy volume density (Epv), vertical wave number spectra, and static stability N² in the stratosphere 30–50 km. Epm (Epv) profiles increase (decrease) with altitude, and the scale heights of Epv indicate stronger wave dissipation in winter than in summer. Altitude mean (Formula presented.) and (Formula presented.) obey lognormal distributions and possess narrowly clustered small values in summer but widely spread large values in winter. (Formula presented.) and (Formula presented.) vary significantly from observation to observation but exhibit repeated seasonal patterns with summer minima and winter maxima. The winter maxima in 2012 and 2015 are higher than in other years, indicating interannual variations. Altitude mean (Formula presented.) varies by ~30–40% from the midwinter maxima to minima around October and exhibits a nearly bimodal distribution. Monthly mean vertical wave number power spectral density for vertical wavelengths of 5–20 km increases from summer to winter. Using Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 data, we find that large values of (Formula presented.) during wintertime occur when McMurdo is well inside the polar vortex. Monthly mean (Formula presented.) are anticorrelated with wind rotation angles but positively correlated with wind speeds at 3 and 30 km. Corresponding correlation coefficients are −0.62, +0.87, and +0.80, respectively. Results indicate that the summer-winter asymmetry of (Formula presented.) is mainly caused by critical level filtering that dissipates most gravity waves in summer. (Formula presented.) variations in winter are mainly due to variations of gravity wave generation in the troposphere and stratosphere and Doppler shifting by the mean stratospheric winds.
- ItemMiddle- and High-Latitude Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Mean Winds and Tides in Response to Strong Polar-Night Jet Oscillations(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2019) Conte, J. Federico; Chau, Jorge L.; Peters, Dieter H.W.The dynamical behavior of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region during strongly disturbed wintertime conditions commonly known as polar-night jet oscillations (PJOs) is described in detail and compared to other wintertime conditions. For this purpose, wind measurements provided by two specular meteor radars located at Andenes (69°N, 16°E) and Juliusruh (54°N, 13°E) are used to estimate horizontal mean winds and tides as an observational basis. Winds and tidal main features are analyzed and compared for three different cases: major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) with (a) strong PJO event, (b) non-PJO event, and (c) no major SSWs. We show that the distinction into strong PJOs, non-PJOs, and winters with no major SSWs is better suited to identify differences in the behavior of the mean winds and tides during the boreal winter. To assess the impact of the stratospheric disturbed conditions on the MLT region, we investigate the 30-year nudged simulation by the Extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model. Analysis of geopotential height disturbances suggests that changes in the location of the polar vortex at mesospheric heights are responsible for the jets observed in the MLT mean winds during strong PJOs, which in turn influence the evolution of semidiurnal tides by increasing or decreasing their amplitudes depending on the tidal component. © 2019. The Authors.
- ItemTropospheric forcing of the boreal polar vortex splitting in January 2003(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2010) Peters, D.H.W.; Vargin, P.; Gabriel, A.; Tsvetkova, N.; Yushkov, V.e dynamical evolution of the relatively warm stratospheric winter season 2002–2003 in the Northern Hemisphere was studied and compared with the cold winter 2004–2005 based on NCEP-Reanalyses. Record low temperatures were observed in the lower and middle stratosphere over the Arctic region only at the beginning of the 2002–2003 winter. Six sudden stratospheric warming events, including the major warming event with a splitting of the polar vortex in mid-January 2003, have been identified. This led to a very high vacillation of the zonal mean circulation and a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex over the whole winter season. An estimate of the mean chemical ozone destruction inside the polar vortex showed a total ozone loss of about 45 DU in winter 2002–2003; that is about 2.5 times smaller than in winter 2004–2005. Embedded in a winter with high wave activity, we found two subtropical Rossby wave trains in the troposphere before the major sudden stratospheric warming event in January 2003. These Rossby waves propagated north-eastwards and maintained two upper tropospheric anticyclones. At the same time, the amplification of an upward propagating planetary wave 2 in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere was observed, which could be caused primarily by those two wave trains. Furthermore, two extratropical Rossby wave trains over the North Pacific Ocean and North America were identified a couple of days later, which contribute mainly to the vertical planetary wave activity flux just before and during the major warming event. It is shown that these different tropospheric forcing processes caused the major warming event and contributed to the splitting of the polar vortex.
- ItemMesospheric semidiurnal tides and near-12 h waves through jointly analyzing observations of five specular meteor radars from three longitudinal sectors at boreal midlatitudes(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2019) He, M.; Chau, J.L.
In the last decades, mesospheric tides have been intensively investigated with observations from both ground-based radars and satellites. Single-site radar observations provide continuous measurements at fixed locations without horizontal information, whereas single-spacecraft missions typically provide global coverage with limited temporal coverage at a given location. In this work, by combining 8 years (2009-2016) of mesospheric winds collected by five specular meteor radars from three different longitudinal sectors at boreal midlatitudes (49±8.5ĝ N), we develop an approach to investigate the most intense global-scale oscillation, namely at the period TCombining double low line12±0.5 h. Six waves are resolved: The semidiurnal westward-Traveling tidal modes with zonal wave numbers 1, 2, and 3 (SW1, SW2, SW3), the lunar semidiurnal tide M2, and the upper and lower sidebands (USB and LSB) of the 16 d wave nonlinear modulation on SW2. The temporal variations of the waves are studied statistically with a special focus on their responses to sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs) and on their climatological seasonal variations. In response to SSWs, USB, LSB, and M2 enhance, while SW2 decreases. However, SW1 and SW3 do not respond noticeably to SSWs, contrary to the broadly reported enhancements in the literature. The USB, LSB, and SW2 responses could be explained in terms of energy exchange through the nonlinear modulation, while LSB and USB might previously have been misinterpreted as SW1 and SW3, respectively. Besides, we find that LSB and M2 enhancements depend on the SSW classification with respect to the associated split or displacement of the polar vortex. In the case of seasonal variations, our results are qualitatively consistent with previous studies and show a moderate correlation with an empirical tidal model derived from satellite observations.
© Author(s) 2019. - ItemImproving ionospheric predictability requires accurate simulation of the mesospheric polar vortex(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2022) Harvey, V. Lynn; Randall, Cora E.; Bailey, Scott M.; Becker, Erich; Chau, Jorge L.; Cullens, Chihoko Y.; Goncharenko, Larisa P.; Gordley, Larry L.; Hindley, Neil P.; Lieberman, Ruth S.; Liu, Han-Li; Megner, Linda; Palo, Scott E.; Pedatella, Nicholas M.; Siskind, David E.; Sassi, Fabrizio; Smith, Anne K.; Stober, Gunter; Stolle, Claudia; Yue, JiaThe mesospheric polar vortex (MPV) plays a critical role in coupling the atmosphere-ionosphere system, so its accurate simulation is imperative for robust predictions of the thermosphere and ionosphere. While the stratospheric polar vortex is widely understood and characterized, the mesospheric polar vortex is much less well-known and observed, a short-coming that must be addressed to improve predictability of the ionosphere. The winter MPV facilitates top-down coupling via the communication of high energy particle precipitation effects from the thermosphere down to the stratosphere, though the details of this mechanism are poorly understood. Coupling from the bottom-up involves gravity waves (GWs), planetary waves (PWs), and tidal interactions that are distinctly different and important during weak vs. strong vortex states, and yet remain poorly understood as well. Moreover, generation and modulation of GWs by the large wind shears at the vortex edge contribute to the generation of traveling atmospheric disturbances and traveling ionospheric disturbances. Unfortunately, representation of the MPV is generally not accurate in state-of-the-art general circulation models, even when compared to the limited observational data available. Models substantially underestimate eastward momentum at the top of the MPV, which limits the ability to predict upward effects in the thermosphere. The zonal wind bias responsible for this missing momentum in models has been attributed to deficiencies in the treatment of GWs and to an inaccurate representation of the high-latitude dynamics. In the coming decade, simulations of the MPV must be improved.
- ItemThe different stratospheric influence on cold-extremes in Eurasia and North America(London : Springer Nature, 2018) Kretschmer, Marlene; Cohen, Judah; Matthias, Vivien; Runge, Jakob; Coumou, DimThe stratospheric polar vortex can influence the tropospheric circulation and thereby winter weather in the mid-latitudes. Weak vortex states, often associated with sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW), have been shown to increase the risk of cold-spells especially over Eurasia, but its role for North American winters is less clear. Using cluster analysis, we show that there are two dominant patterns of increased polar cap heights in the lower stratosphere. Both patterns represent a weak polar vortex but they are associated with different wave mechanisms and different regional tropospheric impacts. The first pattern is zonally symmetric and associated with absorbed upward-propagating wave activity, leading to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and cold-air outbreaks over northern Eurasia. This coupling mechanism is well-documented in the literature and is consistent with the downward migration of the northern annular mode (NAM). The second pattern is zonally asymmetric and linked to downward reflected planetary waves over Canada followed by a negative phase of the Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) and cold-spells in Central Canada and the Great Lakes region. Causal effect network (CEN) analyses confirm the atmospheric pathways associated with this asymmetric pattern. Moreover, our findings suggest the reflective mechanism to be sensitive to the exact region of upward wave-activity fluxes and to be state-dependent on the strength of the vortex. Identifying the causal pathways that operate on weekly to monthly timescales can pave the way for improved sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting of cold spells in the mid-latitudes.
- ItemS2S reboot: An argument for greater inclusion of machine learning in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts(Malden, MA : Wiley-Blackwell, 2018) Cohen, Judah; Coumou, Dim; Hwang, Jessica; Mackey, Lester; Orenstein, Paulo; Totz, Sonja; Tziperman, EliThe discipline of seasonal climate prediction began as an exercise in simple statistical techniques. However, today the large government forecast centers almost exclusively rely on complex fully coupled dynamical forecast systems for their subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictions while statistical techniques are mostly neglected and those techniques still in use have not been updated in decades. In this Opinion Article, we argue that new statistical techniques mostly developed outside the field of climate science, collectively referred to as machine learning, can be adopted by climate forecasters to increase the accuracy of S2S predictions. We present an example of where unsupervised learning demonstrates higher accuracy in a seasonal prediction than the state-of-the-art dynamical systems. We also summarize some relevant machine learning methods that are most applicable to climate prediction. Finally, we show by comparing real-time dynamical model forecasts with observations from winter 2017/2018 that dynamical model forecasts are almost entirely insensitive to polar vortex (PV) variability and the impact on sensible weather. Instead, statistical forecasts more accurately predicted the resultant sensible weather from a mid-winter PV disruption than the dynamical forecasts. The important implication from the poor dynamical forecasts is that if Arctic change influences mid-latitude weather through PV variability, then the ability of dynamical models to demonstrate the existence of such a pathway is compromised. We conclude by suggesting that S2S prediction will be most beneficial to the public by incorporating mixed or a hybrid of dynamical forecasts and updated statistical techniques such as machine learning.
- ItemVery low ozone episodes due to polar vortex displacement(Milton Park : Taylor & Francis, 2000) James, P.M.; Peters, D.; Waugh, D.W.The large-scale ozone distribution over the northern hemisphere undergoes strong fluctuationseach winter on timescales of up to a few weeks. This is closely linked to changes in the stratosphericpolar vortex, whose shape, intensity and location vary with time. Elliptical diagnosticparameters provide an empirical description of the daily character of the polar vortex. Theseparameters are used as an objective measure to define two characteristic wintertime vortexdisplacements, towards northern Europe and Canada, respectively. The large-scale structuresin both the stratosphere and troposphere and the 3D ozone structures are determined for bothvortex displacement scenarios. A linear ozone transport model shows that the contribution ofhorizontal ozone advection dominates locally in the middle stratosphere. Nevertheless, thelargest contribution is due to vertical advection around the ozone layer maximum. The findingsare in agreement with an EOF analysis which reveals significant general modes of ozone variabilitylinked to polar vortex displacement and to phase-shifted large-scale tropospheric waves.When baroclinic waves travel through the regions of vortex-related ozone reduction, the combinedeffect is to produce transient synoptic-scale areas of exceptionally low ozone; namelydynamically induced strong ozone mini-holes.