2015, Jähn, M., Knoth, O., König, M., Vogelsberg, U.

In this work, the fully compressible, three-dimensional, nonhydrostatic atmospheric model called All Scale Atmospheric Model (ASAM) is presented. A cut cell approach is used to include obstacles and orography into the Cartesian grid. Discretization is realized by a mixture of finite differences and finite volumes and a state limiting is applied. Necessary shifting and interpolation techniques are outlined. The method can be generalized to any other orthogonal grids, e.g., a lat–long grid. A linear implicit Rosenbrock time integration scheme ensures numerical stability in the presence of fast sound waves and around small cells. Analyses of five two-dimensional benchmark test cases from the literature are carried out to show that the described method produces meaningful results with respect to conservation properties and model accuracy. The test cases are partly modified in a way that the flow field or scalars interact with cut cells. To make the model applicable for atmospheric problems, physical parameterizations like a Smagorinsky subgrid-scale model, a two-moment bulk microphysics scheme, and precipitation and surface fluxes using a sophisticated multi-layer soil model are implemented and described. Results of an idealized three-dimensional simulation are shown, where the flow field around an idealized mountain with subsequent gravity wave generation, latent heat release, orographic clouds and precipitation are modeled.

2014, Stolbova, V., Martin, P., Bookhagen, B., Marwan, N., Kurths, J.

This paper employs a complex network approach to determine the topology and evolution of the network of extreme precipitation that governs the organization of extreme rainfall before, during, and after the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) season. We construct networks of extreme rainfall events during the ISM (June-September), post-monsoon (October-December), and pre-monsoon (March-May) periods from satellite-derived (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission, TRMM) and rain-gauge interpolated (Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources, APHRODITE) data sets. The structure of the networks is determined by the level of synchronization of extreme rainfall events between different grid cells throughout the Indian subcontinent. Through the analysis of various complex-network metrics, we describe typical repetitive patterns in North Pakistan (NP), the Eastern Ghats (EG), and the Tibetan Plateau (TP). These patterns appear during the pre-monsoon season, evolve during the ISM, and disappear during the post-monsoon season. These are important meteorological features that need further attention and that may be useful in ISM timing and strength prediction.

2020, Bauch, Martin, Labbé, Thomas, Engel, Annabell, Seifert, Patric

The cold/wet anomaly of the 1310s ("Dantean Anomaly") has attracted a lot of attention from scholars, as it is commonly interpreted as a signal of the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). The huge variability that can be observed during this decade, like the high interannual variability observed in the 1340s, has been highlighted as a side effect of this rapid climatic transition. In this paper, we demonstrate that a multiseasonal drought of almost 2 years occurred in the Mediterranean between 1302 and 1304, followed by a series of hot, dry summers north of the Alps from 1304 to 1306. We suggest that this outstanding dry anomaly, unique in the 13th and 14th centuries, together with cold anomalies of the 1310s and the 1340s, is part of the climatic shift from the MCA to the LIA. Our reconstruction of the predominant weather patterns of the first decade of the 14th century based on both documentary and proxy data identifies multiple European precipitation seesaw events between 1302 and 1307, with similarities to the seesaw conditions which prevailed over continental Europe in 2018. It can be debated to what extent the 1302 1307 period can be compared to what is currently discussed regarding the influence of the phenomenon of Arctic amplification on the increasing frequency of persistent stable weather patterns that have occurred since the late 1980s. Additionally, this paper deals with socioeconomic and cultural responses to drought risks in the Middle Ages as outlined in contemporary sources and provides evidence that there is a significant correlation between pronounced dry seasons and fires that devastated cities. © 2020 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.

2013, Itoh, N., Marwan, N.

In this paper a change-point detection method is proposed by extending the singular spectrum transformation (SST) developed as one of the capabilities of singular spectrum analysis (SSA). The method uncovers change points related with trends and periodicities. The potential of the proposed method is demonstrated by analysing simple model time series including linear functions and sine functions as well as real world data (precipitation data in Kenya). A statistical test of the results is proposed based on a Monte Carlo simulation with surrogate methods. As a result, the successful estimation of change points as inherent properties in the representative time series of both trend and harmonics is shown. With regards to the application, we find change points in the precipitation data of Kenyan towns (Nakuru, Naivasha, Narok, and Kisumu) which coincide with the variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) suggesting its impact of extreme climate in East Africa.