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- ItemKey determinants of global land-use projections([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2019) Stehfest, Elke; van Zeist, Willem-Jan; Valin, Hugo; Havlik, Petr; Popp, Alexander; Kyle, Page; Tabeau, Andrzej; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Bodirsky, Benjamin L.; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Humpenöder, Florian; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; van Meijl, Hans; Wiebe, KeithLand use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.
- ItemProductivity ranges of sustainable biomass potentials from non-agricultural land(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2016) Schueler, Vivian; Fuss, Sabine; Steckel, Jan Christoph; Weddige, Ulf; Beringer, TimLand is under pressure from a number of demands, including the need for increased supplies of bioenergy. While bioenergy is an important ingredient in many pathways compatible with reaching the 2 °C target, areas where cultivation of the biomass feedstock would be most productive appear to co-host other important ecosystems services. We categorize global geo-data on land availability into productivity deciles, and provide a geographically explicit assessment of potentials that are concurrent with EU sustainability criteria. The deciles unambiguously classify the global productivity range of potential land currently not in agricultural production for biomass cultivation. Results show that 53 exajoule (EJ) sustainable biomass potential are available from 167 million hectares (Mha) with a productivity above 10 tons of dry matter per hectare and year (tD Mha−1 a−1), while additional 33 EJ are available on 264 Mha with yields between 4 and 10 tD M ha−1 a−1: some regions lose less of their highly productive potentials to sustainability concerns than others and regional contributions to bioenergy potentials shift when less productive land is considered. Challenges to limit developments to the exploitation of sustainable potentials arise in Latin America, Africa and Developing Asia, while new opportunities emerge for Transition Economies and OECD countries to cultivate marginal land.
- ItemVariation in stem mortality rates determines patterns of above-ground biomass in Amazonian forests: implications for dynamic global vegetation models(Hoboken, NJ : Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2016) Johnson, M.O.; Galbraith, D.; Gloor, M.; De Deurwaerder, H.; Guimberteau, M.; Rammig, A.; Thonicke, K.; Verbeeck, H.; von Randow, C.; Monteagudo, A.; Phillips, O.L.; Brienen, R.J.W.; Feldpausch, T.R.; Lopez Gonzalez, G.; Fauset, S.; Quesada, C.A.; Christoffersen, B.; Ciais, P.; Sampaio, G.; Kruijt, B.; Meir, P.; Moorcroft, P.; Zhang, K.; Alvarez-Davila, E.; Alves de Oliveira, A.; Amaral, I.; Andrade, A.; Aragao, L.E.O.C.; Araujo-Murakami, A.; Arets, E.J.M.M.; Arroyo, L.; Aymard, G.A.; Baraloto, C.; Barroso, J.; Bonal, D.; Boot, R.; Camargo, J.; Chave, J.; Cogollo, A.; Cornejo Valverde, F.; Lola da Costa, A.C.; Di Fiore, A.; Ferreira, L.; Higuchi, N.; Honorio, E.N.; Killeen, T.J.; Laurance, S.G.; Laurance, W.F.; Licona, J.; Lovejoy, T.; Malhi, Y.; Marimon, B.; Marimon, B.H. Jr.; Matos, D.C.L.; Mendoza, C.; Neill, D.A.; Pardo, G.; Peña-Claros, M.; Pitman, N.C.A.; Poorter, L.; Prieto, A.; Ramirez-Angulo, H.; Roopsind, A.; Rudas, A.; Salomao, R.P.; Silveira, M.; Stropp, J.; ter Steege, H.; Terborgh, J.; Thomas, R.; Toledo, M.; Torres-Lezama, A.; van der Heijden, G.M.F.; Vasquez, R.; Guimarães Vieira, I.C.; Vilanova, E.; Vos, V.A.; Baker, T.R.
- ItemThe function-dominance correlation drives the direction and strength of biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships(Oxford [u.a.] : Wiley-Blackwell, 2021) Crawford, Michael S.; Barry, Kathryn E.; Clark, Adam T.; Farrior, Caroline E.; Hines, Jes; Ladouceur, Emma; Lichstein, Jeremy W.; Maréchaux, Isabelle; May, Felix; Mori, Akira S.; Reineking, Björn; Turnbull, Lindsay A.; Wirth, Christian; Rüger, NadjaCommunity composition is a primary determinant of how biodiversity change influences ecosystem functioning and, therefore, the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF). We examine the consequences of community composition across six structurally realistic plant community models. We find that a positive correlation between species' functioning in monoculture versus their dominance in mixture with regard to a specific function (the "function-dominance correlation") generates a positive relationship between realised diversity and ecosystem functioning across species richness treatments. However, because realised diversity declines when few species dominate, a positive function-dominance correlation generates a negative relationship between realised diversity and ecosystem functioning within species richness treatments. Removing seed inflow strengthens the link between the function-dominance correlation and BEF relationships across species richness treatments but weakens it within them. These results suggest that changes in species' identities in a local species pool may more strongly affect ecosystem functioning than changes in species richness.