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- ItemRole of CO2, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: A multimodel analysis(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) Zhao, Fang; Zeng, Ning; Asrar, Ghassem; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul; Kalnay, Eugenia; Kato, Etsushi; Koven, Charles D.; Poulter, Ben; Rafique, Rashid; Sitch, Stephen; Shu, Shijie; Stocker, Beni; Viovy, Nicolas; Wiltshire, Andy; Zaehle, SonkeWe examined the net terrestrial carbon flux to the atmosphere (FTA) simulated by nine models from the TRENDY dynamic global vegetation model project for its seasonal cycle and amplitude trend during 1961–2012. While some models exhibit similar phase and amplitude compared to atmospheric inversions, with spring drawdown and autumn rebound, others tend to rebound early in summer. The model ensemble mean underestimates the magnitude of the seasonal cycle by 40 % compared to atmospheric inversions. Global FTA amplitude increase (19 ± 8 %) and its decadal variability from the model ensemble are generally consistent with constraints from surface atmosphere observations. However, models disagree on attribution of this long-term amplitude increase, with factorial experiments attributing 83 ± 56 %, −3 ± 74 and 20 ± 30 % to rising CO2, climate change and land use/cover change, respectively. Seven out of the nine models suggest that CO2 fertilization is the strongest control – with the notable exception of VEGAS, which attributes approximately equally to the three factors. Generally, all models display an enhanced seasonality over the boreal region in response to high-latitude warming, but a negative climate contribution from part of the Northern Hemisphere temperate region, and the net result is a divergence over climate change effect. Six of the nine models show that land use/cover change amplifies the seasonal cycle of global FTA: some are due to forest regrowth, while others are caused by crop expansion or agricultural intensification, as revealed by their divergent spatial patterns. We also discovered a moderate cross-model correlation between FTA amplitude increase and increase in land carbon sink (R2 =  0.61). Our results suggest that models can show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying mechanisms; therefore, the spatial traits of CO2 fertilization, climate change and land use/cover changes are crucial in determining the right mechanisms in seasonal carbon cycle change as well as mean sink change.
- ItemComparison of particle number size distribution trends in ground measurements and climate models(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2022) Leinonen, Ville; Kokkola, Harri; Yli-Juuti, Taina; Mielonen, Tero; Kühn, Thomas; Nieminen, Tuomo; Heikkinen, Simo; Miinalainen, Tuuli; Bergman, Tommi; Carslaw, Ken; Decesari, Stefano; Fiebig, Markus; Hussein, Tareq; Kivekäs, Niku; Krejci, Radovan; Kulmala, Markku; Leskinen, Ari; Massling, Andreas; Mihalopoulos, Nikos; Mulcahy, Jane P.; Noe, Steffen M.; van Noije, Twan; O'Connor, Fiona M.; O'Dowd, Colin; Olivie, Dirk; Pernov, Jakob B.; Petäjä, Tuukka; Seland, Øyvind; Schulz, Michael; Scott, Catherine E.; Skov, Henrik; Swietlicki, Erik; Tuch, Thomas; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Virtanen, Annele; Mikkonen, SanttuDespite a large number of studies, out of all drivers of radiative forcing, the effect of aerosols has the largest uncertainty in global climate model radiative forcing estimates. There have been studies of aerosol optical properties in climate models, but the effects of particle number size distribution need a more thorough inspection. We investigated the trends and seasonality of particle number concentrations in nucleation, Aitken, and accumulation modes at 21 measurement sites in Europe and the Arctic. For 13 of those sites, with longer measurement time series, we compared the field observations with the results from five climate models, namely EC-Earth3, ECHAM-M7, ECHAM-SALSA, NorESM1.2, and UKESM1. This is the first extensive comparison of detailed aerosol size distribution trends between in situ observations from Europe and five earth system models (ESMs). We found that the trends of particle number concentrations were mostly consistent and decreasing in both measurements and models. However, for many sites, climate models showed weaker decreasing trends than the measurements. Seasonal variability in measured number concentrations, quantified by the ratio between maximum and minimum monthly number concentration, was typically stronger at northern measurement sites compared to other locations. Models had large differences in their seasonal representation, and they can be roughly divided into two categories: for EC-Earth and NorESM, the seasonal cycle was relatively similar for all sites, and for other models the pattern of seasonality varied between northern and southern sites. In addition, the variability in concentrations across sites varied between models, some having relatively similar concentrations for all sites, whereas others showed clear differences in concentrations between remote and urban sites. To conclude, although all of the model simulations had identical input data to describe anthropogenic mass emissions, trends in differently sized particles vary among the models due to assumptions in emission sizes and differences in how models treat size-dependent aerosol processes. The inter-model variability was largest in the accumulation mode, i.e. sizes which have implications for aerosol-cloud interactions. Our analysis also indicates that between models there is a large variation in efficiency of long-range transportation of aerosols to remote locations. The differences in model results are most likely due to the more complex effect of different processes instead of one specific feature (e.g. the representation of aerosol or emission size distributions). Hence, a more detailed characterization of microphysical processes and deposition processes affecting the long-range transport is needed to understand the model variability.
- ItemLong-term wintertime trend of zonally asymmetric ozone in boreal extratropics during 1979-2016(Basel : MDPI AG, 2018) Schneidereit, A.; Peters, D.H.W.Strong zonally asymmetric ozone (ZAO) changes are observed in the boreal extratropics for winter. During the TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) period (1979-1992) the decrease of zonally asymmetric total ozone (ZATO) was twice as large as the observed zonal mean total ozone trend over Europe in January mainly caused by ultra-long wave transport. Recent studies have demonstrated that the ozone evolution reveals three different quasi-bidecadal trend stages: (i) Decline, (ii) leveling, and (ii) healing. This study focuses on the ZAO structure in boreal extratropics and on ozone transport changes by ultra-long waves during winter months. ERA-Interim data together with a linearized transport model are used. During the healing stage ZATO increases significantly over the North Atlantic/European region for January. The ZATO increase (healing stage) and ZATO decrease (decline stage) are caused by different monthly mean ozone transport characteristics of ultra-long planetary waves over the North Atlantic/European region. Furthermore, the vertical advection (ageostrophic transport) of ozone versus its horizontal component dominates in the lower and middle stratosphere during the healing stage. It is hypothesized that these ageostrophic wind changes are mainly caused by a wave train directed northeastwards which seems to be directly linked to the Arctic warming. © 2018 by the authors.
- ItemA new description of probability density distributions of polar mesospheric clouds(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2019) Berger, U.; Baumgarten, G.; Fiedler, J.; Lübken, F.-J.In this paper we present a new description of statistical probability density functions (pdfs) of polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs). The analysis is based on observations of maximum backscatter, ice mass density, ice particle radius, and number density of ice particles measured by the ALOMAR Rayleigh-Mie-Raman lidar for all PMC seasons from 2002 to 2016. From this data set we derive a new class of pdfs that describe the statistics of PMC events that is different from previous statistical methods using the approach of an exponential distribution commonly named the g distribution. The new analysis describes successfully the probability distributions of ALOMAR lidar data. It turns out that the former g-function description is a special case of our new approach. In general the new statistical function can be applied to many kinds of different PMC parameters, e.g., maximum backscatter, integrated backscatter, ice mass density, ice water content, ice particle radius, ice particle number density, or albedo measured by satellites. As a main advantage the new method allows us to connect different observational PMC distributions of lidar and satellite data, and also to compare with distributions from ice model studies. In particular, the statistical distributions of different ice parameters can be compared with each other on the basis of a common assessment that facilitates, for example, trend analysis of PMC. © Author(s) 2019.
- ItemClimate change in Afghanistan deduced from reanalysis and coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia simulations(Basel : MDPI, 2017) Aich, Valentin; Akhundzadah, Noor Ahmad; Knuerr, Alec; Khoshbeen, Ahmad Jamshed; Hattermann, Fred; Paeth, Heiko; Scanlon, Andrew; Paton, Eva NoraPast and the projected future climate change in Afghanistan has been analyzed systematically and differentiated with respect to its different climate regions to gain some first quantitative insights into Afghanistan’s vulnerability to ongoing and future climate changes. For this purpose, temperature, precipitation and five additional climate indices for extremes and agriculture assessments (heavy precipitation; spring precipitation; growing season length (GSL), the Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI); and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) from the reanalysis data were examined for their consistency to identify changes in the past (data since 1950). For future changes (up to the year 2100), the same parameters were extracted from an ensemble of 12 downscaled regional climate models (RCM) of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia simulations for low and high emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). In the past, the climatic changes were mainly characterized by a mean temperature increase above global level of 1.8 °C from 1950 to 2010; uncertainty with regard to reanalyzed rainfall data limited a thorough analysis of past changes. Climate models projected the temperature trend to accelerate in the future, depending strongly on the global carbon emissions (2006–2050 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5/8.5: 1.7/2.3 °C; 2006–2099: 2.7/6.4 °C, respectively). Despite the high uncertainty with regard to precipitation projections, it became apparent that the increasing evapotranspiration is likely to exacerbate Afghanistan’s already existing water stress, including a very strong increase of frequency and magnitude of heat waves. Overall, the results show that in addition to the already extensive deficiency in adaptation to current climate conditions, the situation will be aggravated in the future, particularly in regard to water management and agriculture. Thus, the results of this study underline the importance of adequate adaptation to climate change in Afghanistan. This is even truer taking into account that GSL is projected to increase substantially by around 20 days on average until 2050, which might open the opportunity for extended agricultural husbandry or even additional harvests when water resources are properly managed.
- ItemHydroxyl layer: trend of number density and intra-annual variability(Katlenburg, Lindau : Copernicus, 2015) Sonnemann, G.R.; Hartogh, P.; Berger, U.; Grygalashvyly, M.The layer of vibrationally excited hydroxyl (OH*) near the mesopause in Earth's atmosphere is widely used to derive the temperature at this height and to observe dynamical processes such as gravity waves. The concentration of OH* is controlled by the product of atomic hydrogen, with ozone creating a layer of enhanced concentration in the mesopause region. However, the basic influences on the OH* layer are atomic oxygen and temperature. The long-term monitoring of this layer provides information on a changing atmosphere. It is important to know which proportion of a trend results from anthropogenic impacts on the atmosphere and which proportion reflects natural variations. In a previous paper (Grygalashvyly et al., 2014), the trend of the height of the layer and the trend in temperature were investigated particularly in midlatitudes on the basis of our coupled dynamic and chemical transport model LIMA (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere). In this paper we consider the trend for the number density between the years 1961 and 2009 and analyze the reason of the trends on a global scale. Further, we consider intra-annual variations. Temperature and wind have the strongest impacts on the trend. Surprisingly, the increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) has no clear influence on the chemistry of OH*. The main reason for this lies in the fact that, in the production term of OH*, if atomic hydrogen increases due to increasing humidity of the middle atmosphere by methane oxidation, ozone decreases. The maximum of the OH* layer is found in the mesopause region and is very variable. The mesopause region is a very intricate domain marked by changeable dynamics and strong gradients of all chemically active minor constituents determining the OH* chemistry. The OH* concentration responds, in part, very sensitively to small changes in these parameters. The cause for this behavior is given by nonlinear reactions of the photochemical system being a nonlinear enforced chemical oscillator driven by the diurnal-periodic solar insolation. At the height of the OH* layer the system operates in the vicinity of chemical resonance. The solar cycle is mirrored in the data, but the long-term behavior due to the trend in the Lyman-α radiation is very small. The number density shows distinct hemispheric differences. The calculated OH* values show sometimes a step around a certain year. We introduce a method to find out the date of this step and discuss a possible reason for such behavior.
- ItemMultidecadal trend analysis of in situ aerosol radiative properties around the world(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2020) Collaud Coen, Martine; Andrews, Elisabeth; Alastuey, Andrés; Petkov Arsov, Todor; Backman, John; Brem, Benjamin T.; Bukowiecki, Nicolas; Couret, Cédric; Eleftheriadis, Konstantinos; Flentje, Harald; Fiebig, Markus; Gysel-Beer, Martin; Hand, Jenny L.; Hoffer, András; Hooda, Rakesh; Hueglin, Christoph; Joubert, Warren; Keywood, Melita; Eun Kim, Jeong; Kim, Sang-Woo; Labuschagne, Casper; Lin, Neng-Huei; Lin, Yong; Lund Myhre, Cathrine; Luoma, Krista; Lyamani, Hassan; Marinoni, Angela; Mayol-Bracero, Olga L.; Mihalopoulos, Nikos; Pandolfi, Marco; Prats, Natalia; Prenni, Anthony J.; Putaud, Jean-Philippe; Ries, Ludwig; Reisen, Fabienne; Sellegri, Karine; Sharma, Sangeeta; Sheridan, Patrick; Sherman, James Patrick; Sun, Junying; Titos, Gloria; Torres, Elvis; Tuch, Thomas; Weller, Rolf; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Zieger, Paul; Laj, PaoloIn order to assess the evolution of aerosol parameters affecting climate change, a long-term trend analysis of aerosol optical properties was performed on time series from 52 stations situated across five continents. The time series of measured scattering, backscattering and absorption coefficients as well as the derived single scattering albedo, backscattering fraction, scattering and absorption Ångström exponents covered at least 10 years and up to 40 years for some stations. The non-parametric seasonal Mann-Kendall (MK) statistical test associated with several pre-whitening methods and with Sen's slope was used as the main trend analysis method. Comparisons with general least mean square associated with autoregressive bootstrap (GLS/ARB) and with standard least mean square analysis (LMS) enabled confirmation of the detected MK statistically significant trends and the assessment of advantages and limitations of each method. Currently, scattering and backscattering coefficient trends are mostly decreasing in Europe and North America and are not statistically significant in Asia, while polar stations exhibit a mix of increasing and decreasing trends. A few increasing trends are also found at some stations in North America and Australia. Absorption coefficient time series also exhibit primarily decreasing trends. For single scattering albedo, 52 % of the sites exhibit statistically significant positive trends, mostly in Asia, eastern/northern Europe and the Arctic, 22 % of sites exhibit statistically significant negative trends, mostly in central Europe and central North America, while the remaining 26 % of sites have trends which are not statistically significant. In addition to evaluating trends for the overall time series, the evolution of the trends in sequential 10-year segments was also analyzed. For scattering and backscattering, statistically significant increasing 10-year trends are primarily found for earlier periods (10-year trends ending in 2010-2015) for polar stations and Mauna Loa. For most of the stations, the present-day statistically significant decreasing 10-year trends of the single scattering albedo were preceded by not statistically significant and statistically significant increasing 10-year trends. The effect of air pollution abatement policies in continental North America is very obvious in the 10-year trends of the scattering coefficient - there is a shift to statistically significant negative trends in 2009-2012 for all stations in the eastern and central USA. This long-term trend analysis of aerosol radiative properties with a broad spatial coverage provides insight into potential aerosol effects on climate changes. © 2020 Royal Society of Chemistry. All rights reserved.
- ItemHistorical and idealized climate model experiments: An intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2013) Eby, M.; Weaver, A.J.; Alexander, K.; Zickfeld, K.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Cimatoribus, A.A.; Crespin, E.; Drijfhout, S.S.; Edwards, N.R.; Eliseev, A.V.; Feulner, G.; Fichefet, T.; Forest, C.E.; Goosse, H.; Holden, P.B.; Joos, F.; Kawamiya, M.; Kicklighter, D.; Kienert, H.; Matsumoto, K.; Mokhov, I.I.; Monier, E.; Olsen, S.M.; Pedersen, J.O.P.; Perrette, M.; Philippon-Berthier, G.; Ridgwell, A.; Schlosser, A.; Schneider von Deimling, T.; Shaffer, G.; Smith, R.S.; Spahni, R.; Sokolov, A.P.; Steinacher, M.; Tachiiri, K.; Tokos, K.; Yoshimori, M.; Zeng, N.; Zhao, F.Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.
- ItemDecreasing trends of particle number and black carbon mass concentrations at 16 observational sites in Germany from 2009 to 2018(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2020) Sun, Jia; Birmili, Wolfram; Hermann, Markus; Tuch, Thomas; Weinhold, Kay; Merkel, Maik; Rasch, Fabian; Müller, Thomas; Schladitz, Alexander; Bastian, Susanne; Löschau, Gunter; Cyrys, Josef; Gu, Jianwei; Flentje, Harald; Briel, Björn; Asbach, Christoph; Kaminski, Heinz; Ries, Ludwig; Sohmer, Ralf; Gerwig, Holger; Wirtz, Klaus; Meinhardt, Frank; Schwerin, Andreas; Bath, Olaf; Ma, Nan; Wiedensohler, AlfredAnthropogenic emissions are dominant contributors to air pollution. Consequently, mitigation policies have been attempted since the 1990s in Europe to reduce pollution by anthropogenic emissions. To evaluate the effectiveness of these mitigation policies, the German Ultrafine Aerosol Network (GUAN) was established in 2008, focusing on black carbon (BC) and sub-micrometre aerosol particles. In this study, long-term trends of atmospheric particle number concentrations (PNCs) and equivalent BC (eBC) mass concentration over a 10-year period (2009-2018) were determined for 16 GUAN sites ranging from roadside to high Alpine environments. Overall, statistically significant decreasing trends are found for most of these parameters and environments in Germany. The annual relative slope of eBC mass concentration varies between-13.1% and-1.7% per year. The slopes of the PNCs vary from-17.2% to-1.7 %,-7.8% to-1.1 %, and-11.1% to-1.2% per year for 10-30, 30-200, and 200-800 nm size ranges, respectively. The reductions in various anthropogenic emissions are found to be the dominant factors responsible for the decreasing trends of eBC mass concentration and PNCs. The diurnal and seasonal variations in the trends clearly show the effects of the mitigation policies for road transport and residential emissions. The influences of other factors such as air masses, precipitation, and temperature were also examined and found to be less important or negligible. This study proves that a combination of emission mitigation policies can effectively improve the air quality on large spatial scales. It also suggests that a long-term aerosol measurement network at multi-type sites is an efficient and necessary tool for evaluating emission mitigation policies. © 2020 Author(s).
- ItemSources, seasonality, and trends of southeast US aerosol: an integrated analysis of surface, aircraft, and satellite observations with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2015) Kim, P.S.; Jacob, D.J.; Fisher, J.A.; Travis, K.; Yu, K.; Zhu, L.; Yantosca, R.M.; Sulprizio, M.P.; Jimenez, J.L.; Campuzano-Jost, P.; Froyd, K.D.; Liao, J.; Hair, J.W.; Fenn, M.A.; Butler, C.F.; Wagner, N.L.; Gordon, T.D.; Welti, A.; Wennberg, P.O.; Crounse, J.D.; St. Clair, J.M.; Teng, A.P.; Millet, D.B.; Schwarz, J.P.; Markovic, M.Z.; Perring, A.E.We use an ensemble of surface (EPA CSN, IMPROVE, SEARCH, AERONET), aircraft (SEAC4RS), and satellite (MODIS, MISR) observations over the southeast US during the summer–fall of 2013 to better understand aerosol sources in the region and the relationship between surface particulate matter (PM) and aerosol optical depth (AOD). The GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (CTM) with 25 × 25 km2 resolution over North America is used as a common platform to interpret measurements of different aerosol variables made at different times and locations. Sulfate and organic aerosol (OA) are the main contributors to surface PM2.5 (mass concentration of PM finer than 2.5 μm aerodynamic diameter) and AOD over the southeast US. OA is simulated successfully with a simple parameterization, assuming irreversible uptake of low-volatility products of hydrocarbon oxidation. Biogenic isoprene and monoterpenes account for 60 % of OA, anthropogenic sources for 30 %, and open fires for 10 %. 60 % of total aerosol mass is in the mixed layer below 1.5 km, 25 % in the cloud convective layer at 1.5–3 km, and 15 % in the free troposphere above 3 km. This vertical profile is well captured by GEOS-Chem, arguing against a high-altitude source of OA. The extent of sulfate neutralization (f = [NH4+]/(2[SO42−] + [NO3−]) is only 0.5–0.7 mol mol−1 in the observations, despite an excess of ammonia present, which could reflect suppression of ammonia uptake by OA. This would explain the long-term decline of ammonium aerosol in the southeast US, paralleling that of sulfate. The vertical profile of aerosol extinction over the southeast US follows closely that of aerosol mass. GEOS-Chem reproduces observed total column aerosol mass over the southeast US within 6 %, column aerosol extinction within 16 %, and space-based AOD within 8–28 % (consistently biased low). The large AOD decline observed from summer to winter is driven by sharp declines in both sulfate and OA from August to October. These declines are due to shutdowns in both biogenic emissions and UV-driven photochemistry. Surface PM2.5 shows far less summer-to-winter decrease than AOD and we attribute this in part to the offsetting effect of weaker boundary layer ventilation. The SEAC4RS aircraft data demonstrate that AODs measured from space are consistent with surface PM2.5. This implies that satellites can be used reliably to infer surface PM2.5 over monthly timescales if a good CTM representation of the aerosol vertical profile is available.