Search Results
The Hiccup: a dynamical coupling process during the autumn transition in the Northern Hemisphere – similarities and differences to sudden stratospheric warmings
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are the most prominent vertical coupling process in the middle atmosphere, which occur during winter and are caused by the interaction of planetary waves (PWs) with the zonal mean flow. Vertical coupling has also been identified during the equinox transitions, and is similarly associated with PWs. We argue that there is a characteristic aspect of the autumn transition in northern high latitudes, which we call the "hiccup", and which acts like a "mini SSW", i.e. like a small minor warming. We study the average characteristics of the hiccup based on a superimposed epoch analysis using a nudged version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model, representing 30 years of historical data. Hiccups can be identified in about half the years studied. The mesospheric zonal wind results are compared to radar observations over Andenes (69° N, 16° E) for the years 2000–2013. A comparison of the average characteristics of hiccups and SSWs shows both similarities and differences between the two vertical coupling processes.
MIS-11 duration key to disappearance of the Greenland ice sheet
Palaeo data suggest that Greenland must have been largely ice free during Marine Isotope Stage 11 (MIS-11). However, regional summer insolation anomalies were modest during this time compared to MIS-5e, when the Greenland ice sheet likely lost less volume. Thus it remains unclear how such conditions led to an almost complete disappearance of the ice sheet. Here we use transient climate-ice sheet simulations to simultaneously constrain estimates of regional temperature anomalies and Greenland's contribution to the MIS-11 sea-level highstand. We find that Greenland contributed 6.1 m (3.9-7.0 m, 95% credible interval) to sea level, ∼7 kyr after the peak in regional summer temperature anomalies of 2.8 °C (2.1-3.4 °C). The moderate warming produced a mean rate of mass loss in sea-level equivalent of only around 0.4 m per kyr, which means the long duration of MIS-11 interglacial conditions around Greenland was a necessary condition for the ice sheet to disappear almost completely.
Tropospheric forcing of the boreal polar vortex splitting in January 2003
e dynamical evolution of the relatively warm stratospheric winter season 2002–2003 in the Northern Hemisphere was studied and compared with the cold winter 2004–2005 based on NCEP-Reanalyses. Record low temperatures were observed in the lower and middle stratosphere over the Arctic region only at the beginning of the 2002–2003 winter. Six sudden stratospheric warming events, including the major warming event with a splitting of the polar vortex in mid-January 2003, have been identified. This led to a very high vacillation of the zonal mean circulation and a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex over the whole winter season. An estimate of the mean chemical ozone destruction inside the polar vortex showed a total ozone loss of about 45 DU in winter 2002–2003; that is about 2.5 times smaller than in winter 2004–2005. Embedded in a winter with high wave activity, we found two subtropical Rossby wave trains in the troposphere before the major sudden stratospheric warming event in January 2003. These Rossby waves propagated north-eastwards and maintained two upper tropospheric anticyclones. At the same time, the amplification of an upward propagating planetary wave 2 in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere was observed, which could be caused primarily by those two wave trains. Furthermore, two extratropical Rossby wave trains over the North Pacific Ocean and North America were identified a couple of days later, which contribute mainly to the vertical planetary wave activity flux just before and during the major warming event. It is shown that these different tropospheric forcing processes caused the major warming event and contributed to the splitting of the polar vortex.
Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals
Current global mitigation ambition up to 2030 under the Paris Agreement, reflected in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs), is insufficient to achieve the agreement's 1.5 °C long-term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, the question as to how much collective improvement is achieved is a pivotal one for the credibility of the international climate regime. The recent Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has assessed a wide range of scenarios that achieve the 1.5 °C limit. Those pathways are characterised by a substantial increase in near-term action and total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels about 50 % lower than what is implied by current NDCs. Here we assess the outcomes of different scenarios of NDC updating that fall short of achieving this 1.5 °C benchmark. We find that incremental improvements in reduction targets, even if achieved globally, are insufficient to align collective ambition with the goals of the Paris Agreement. We provide estimates for global mean temperature increase by 2100 for different incremental NDC update scenarios and illustrate climate impacts under those median scenarios for extreme temperature, long-term sea-level rise and economic damages for the most vulnerable countries. Under the assumption of maintaining ambition as reflected in current NDCs up to 2100 and beyond, we project a reduction in the gross domestic product (GDP) in tropical countries of around 60 % compared to a no-climate-change scenario and median long-term sea-level rise of close to 2 m in 2300. About half of these impacts can be avoided by limiting warming to 1.5 °C or below. Scenarios of more incremental NDC improvements do not lead to comparable reductions in climate impacts. An increase in aggregated NDC ambition of big emitters by 33 % in 2030 does not reduce presented climate impacts by more than about half compared to limiting warming to 1.5 °C. Our results underscore that a transformational increase in 2030 ambition is required to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and avoid the worst impacts of climate change. © 2020 SPIE. All rights reserved.
Atmospheric black carbon and warming effects influenced by the source and absorption enhancement in central Europe
Particles containing black carbon (BC), a strong absorbing substance, exert a rather uncertain direct and indirect radiative forcing in the atmosphere. To investigate the mass concentration and absorption properties of BC particles over central Europe, the model WRF-Chem was used at a resolution of 12 km in conjunction with a high-resolution BC emission inventory (EUCAARI 42-Pan-European Carbonaceous Aerosol Inventory; 1/8° × 1/16°). The model simulation was evaluated using measurements of equivalent soot carbon, absorption coefficients and particle number concentrations at seven sites within the German Ultrafine Aerosol Network, PM mass concentrations from the dense measurement network of the German Federal Environmental Agency at 392 monitoring stations, and aerosol optical depth from MODIS and AERONET. A distinct time period (25 March to 10 April 2009) was chosen, during which the clean marine air mass prevailed in the first week and afterwards the polluted continental air mass mainly from the southeast dominated with elevated daily average BC concentration of up to 4 μ g m−3. The simulated PM mass concentration, aerosol number concentration and optical depth were in good agreement with the observations, while the modelled BC mass concentrations were found to be a factor of 2 lower than the observations. Together with back trajectories, detailed model bias analyses suggested that the current BC emission in countries to the east and south of Germany might be underestimated by a factor of 5, at least for the simulation period. Running the model with upscaled BC emissions in these regions led to a smaller model bias and a better correlation between model and measurement. In contrast, the particle absorption coefficient was positively biased by about 20% even when the BC mass concentration was underestimated by around 50%. This indicates that the internal mixture treatment of BC in the WRF-Chem optical calculation is unrealistic in our case, which overamplifies the light absorption by BC-containing particles. By adjusting the modelled mass absorption cross-section towards the measured values, the simulation of particle light absorption of BC was improved as well. Finally, the positive direct radiative forcing of BC particles at the top of the atmosphere was estimated to be in the range of 0 to +4 W m−2 over Germany for the model run with improved BC mass concentration and adjusted BC light absorption cross-section. This adjustment lowered the positive forcing of BC by up to 70%, compared with the internal mixing treatment of BC in the model simulation.
Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties
The UN Paris Agreement puts in place a legally binding mechanism to increase mitigation action over time. Countries put forward pledges called nationally determined contributions (NDC) whose impact is assessed in global stocktaking exercises. Subsequently, actions can then be strengthened in light of the Paris climate objective: Limiting global mean temperature increase to well below 2 °C and pursuing efforts to limit it further to 1.5 °C. However, pledged actions are currently described ambiguously and this complicates the global stocktaking exercise. Here, we systematically explore possible interpretations of NDC assumptions, and show that this results in estimated emissions for 2030 ranging from 47 to 63 GtCO2e yr-1. We show that this uncertainty has critical implications for the feasibility and cost to limit warming well below 2 °C and further to 1.5 °C. Countries are currently working towards clarifying the modalities of future NDCs. We identify salient avenues to reduce the overall uncertainty by about 10 percentage points through simple, technical clarifications regarding energy accounting rules. Remaining uncertainties depend to a large extent on politically valid choices about how NDCs are expressed, and therefore raise the importance of a thorough and robust process that keeps track of where emissions are heading over time.
Polar middle atmosphere temperature climatology from Rayleigh lidar measurements at ALOMAR (69° N)
Rayleigh lidar temperature profiles have been derived in the polar middle atmosphere from 834 measurements with the ALOMAR Rayleigh/Mie/Raman lidar (69.3° N, 16.0° E) in the years 1997–2005. Since our instrument is able to operate under full daylight conditions, the unique data set presented here extends over the entire year and covers the altitude region 30 km–85 km in winter and 30 km–65 km in summer. Comparisons of our lidar data set to reference atmospheres and ECMWF analyses show agreement within a few Kelvin in summer but in winter higher temperatures below 55 km and lower temperatures above by as much as 25 K, due likely to superior resolution of stratospheric warming and associated mesospheric cooling events. We also present a temperature climatology for the entire lower and middle atmosphere at 69° N obtained from a combination of lidar measurements, falling sphere measurements and ECMWF analyses. Day to day temperature variability in the lidar data is found to be largest in winter and smallest in summer.
Role of CO2, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: A multimodel analysis
We examined the net terrestrial carbon flux to the atmosphere (FTA) simulated by nine models from the TRENDY dynamic global vegetation model project for its seasonal cycle and amplitude trend during 1961–2012. While some models exhibit similar phase and amplitude compared to atmospheric inversions, with spring drawdown and autumn rebound, others tend to rebound early in summer. The model ensemble mean underestimates the magnitude of the seasonal cycle by 40 % compared to atmospheric inversions. Global FTA amplitude increase (19 ± 8 %) and its decadal variability from the model ensemble are generally consistent with constraints from surface atmosphere observations. However, models disagree on attribution of this long-term amplitude increase, with factorial experiments attributing 83 ± 56 %, −3 ± 74 and 20 ± 30 % to rising CO2, climate change and land use/cover change, respectively. Seven out of the nine models suggest that CO2 fertilization is the strongest control – with the notable exception of VEGAS, which attributes approximately equally to the three factors. Generally, all models display an enhanced seasonality over the boreal region in response to high-latitude warming, but a negative climate contribution from part of the Northern Hemisphere temperate region, and the net result is a divergence over climate change effect. Six of the nine models show that land use/cover change amplifies the seasonal cycle of global FTA: some are due to forest regrowth, while others are caused by crop expansion or agricultural intensification, as revealed by their divergent spatial patterns. We also discovered a moderate cross-model correlation between FTA amplitude increase and increase in land carbon sink (R2 = 0.61). Our results suggest that models can show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying mechanisms; therefore, the spatial traits of CO2 fertilization, climate change and land use/cover changes are crucial in determining the right mechanisms in seasonal carbon cycle change as well as mean sink change.
Warming assessment of the bottom-up Paris Agreement emissions pledges
Under the bottom-up architecture of the Paris Agreement, countries pledge Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Current NDCs individually align, at best, with divergent concepts of equity and are collectively inconsistent with the Paris Agreement. We show that the global 2030-emissions of NDCs match the sum of each country adopting the least-stringent of five effort-sharing allocations of a well-below 2 °C-scenario. Extending such a self-interested bottom-up aggregation of equity might lead to a median 2100-warming of 2.3 °C. Tightening the warming goal of each country’s effort-sharing approach to aspirational levels of 1.1 °C and 1.3 °C could achieve the 1.5 °C and well-below 2 °C-thresholds, respectively. This new hybrid allocation reconciles the bottom-up nature of the Paris Agreement with its top-down warming thresholds and provides a temperature metric to assess NDCs. When taken as benchmark by other countries, the NDCs of India, the EU, the USA and China lead to 2.6 °C, 3.2 °C, 4 °C and over 5.1 °C warmings, respectively.
Latitudinal wave coupling of the stratosphere and mesosphere during the major stratospheric warming in 2003/2004
The coupling of the dynamical regimes in the high- and low-latitude stratosphere and mesosphere during the major SSW in the Arctic winter of 2003/2004 has been studied. The UKMO zonal wind data were used to explore the latitudinal coupling in the stratosphere, while the coupling in the mesosphere was investigated by neutral wind measurements from eleven radars situated at high, high-middle and tropical latitudes. It was found that the inverse relationship between the variability of the zonal mean flows at high- and low-latitude stratosphere related to the SSW is produced by global-scale zonally symmetric waves. Their origin and other main features have been investigated in detail. Similar latitudinal dynamical coupling has been found for the mesosphere as well. Indirect evidence for the presence of zonally symmetric waves in the mesosphere has been found.