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- ItemImpact of extreme weather conditions on European crop production in 2018(London : Royal Society, 2020) Beillouin, Damien; Schauberger, Bernhard; Bastos, Ana; Ciais, Phillipe; Makowski, DavidExtreme weather increases the risk of large-scale crop failure. The mechanisms involved are complex and intertwined, hence undermining the identification of simple adaptation levers to help improve the resilience of agricultural production. Based on more than 82 000 yield data reported at the regional level in 17 European countries, we assess how climate affected the yields of nine crop species. Using machine learning models, we analyzed historical yield data since 1901 and then focus on 2018, which has experienced a multiplicity and a diversity of atypical extreme climatic conditions. Machine learning models explain up to 65% of historical yield anomalies. We find that both extremes in temperature and precipitation are associated with negative yield anomalies, but with varying impacts in different parts of Europe. In 2018, Northern and Eastern Europe experienced multiple and simultaneous crop failures - among the highest observed in recent decades. These yield losses were associated with extremely low rainfalls in combination with high temperatures between March and August 2018. However, the higher than usual yields recorded in Southern Europe - caused by favourable spring rainfall conditions - nearly offset the large decrease in Northern European crop production. Our results outline the importance of considering single and compound climate extremes to analyse the causes of yield losses in Europe. We found no clear upward or downward trend in the frequency of extreme yield losses for any of the considered crops between 1990 and 2018. This article is part of the theme issue 'Impacts of the 2018 severe drought and heatwave in Europe: from site to continental scale'. © 2020 The Authors.
- ItemDiverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2018) Webber, Heidi; Ewert, Frank; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Müller, Christoph; Fronzek, Stefan; Ruane, Alex C.; Bourgault, Maryse; Martre, Pierre; Ababaei, Behnam; Bindi, Marco; Ferrise, Roberto; Finger, Robert; Fodor, Nándor; Gabaldón-Leal, Clara; Gaiser, Thomas; Jabloun, Mohamed; Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian; Lizaso, Jon I.; Lorite, Ignacio J.; Manceau, Loic; Moriondo, Marco; Nendel, Claas; Rodríguez, Alfredo; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Siebert, Stefan; Stella, Tommaso; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Trombi, Giacomo; Wallach, DanielUnderstanding the drivers of yield levels under climate change is required to support adaptation planning and respond to changing production risks. This study uses an ensemble of crop models applied on a spatial grid to quantify the contributions of various climatic drivers to past yield variability in grain maize and winter wheat of European cropping systems (1984–2009) and drivers of climate change impacts to 2050. Results reveal that for the current genotypes and mix of irrigated and rainfed production, climate change would lead to yield losses for grain maize and gains for winter wheat. Across Europe, on average heat stress does not increase for either crop in rainfed systems, while drought stress intensifies for maize only. In low-yielding years, drought stress persists as the main driver of losses for both crops, with elevated CO2 offering no yield benefit in these years.
- ItemClimate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2016) Pugh, T.A.M.; Müller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A.
- ItemConsistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2017) Schauberger, B.; Archontoulis, S.; Arneth, A.; Balkovic, J.; Ciais, P.; Deryng, D.; Elliott, J.; Folberth, C.; Khabarov, N.; Müller, C.; Pugh, T.A.M.; Rolinski, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Schmid, E.; Wang, X.; Schlenker, W.; Frieler, K.High temperatures are detrimental to crop yields and could lead to global warming-driven reductions in agricultural productivity. To assess future threats, the majority of studies used process-based crop models, but their ability to represent effects of high temperature has been questioned. Here we show that an ensemble of nine crop models reproduces the observed average temperature responses of US maize, soybean and wheat yields. Each day >30 °C diminishes maize and soybean yields by up to 6% under rainfed conditions. Declines observed in irrigated areas, or simulated assuming full irrigation, are weak. This supports the hypothesis that water stress induced by high temperatures causes the decline. For wheat a negative response to high temperature is neither observed nor simulated under historical conditions, since critical temperatures are rarely exceeded during the growing season. In the future, yields are modelled to decline for all three crops at temperatures >30 °C. Elevated CO 2 can only weakly reduce these yield losses, in contrast to irrigation.
- ItemA network-based approach for semi-quantitative knowledge mining and its application to yield variability(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2016) Schauberger, Bernhard; Rolinski, Susanne; Müller, ChristophVariability of crop yields is detrimental for food security. Under climate change its amplitude is likely to increase, thus it is essential to understand the underlying causes and mechanisms. Crop models are the primary tool to project future changes in crop yields under climate change. A systematic overview of drivers and mechanisms of crop yield variability (YV) can thus inform crop model development and facilitate improved understanding of climate change impacts on crop yields. Yet there is a vast body of literature on crop physiology and YV, which makes a prioritization of mechanisms for implementation in models challenging. Therefore this paper takes on a novel approach to systematically mine and organize existing knowledge from the literature. The aim is to identify important mechanisms lacking in models, which can help to set priorities in model improvement. We structure knowledge from the literature in a semi-quantitative network. This network consists of complex interactions between growing conditions, plant physiology and crop yield. We utilize the resulting network structure to assign relative importance to causes of YV and related plant physiological processes. As expected, our findings confirm existing knowledge, in particular on the dominant role of temperature and precipitation, but also highlight other important drivers of YV. More importantly, our method allows for identifying the relevant physiological processes that transmit variability in growing conditions to variability in yield. We can identify explicit targets for the improvement of crop models. The network can additionally guide model development by outlining complex interactions between processes and by easily retrieving quantitative information for each of the 350 interactions. We show the validity of our network method as a structured, consistent and scalable dictionary of literature. The method can easily be applied to many other research fields.
- ItemPlant genotype influence the structure of cereal seed fungal microbiome(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2023) Malacrinò, Antonino; Abdelfattah, Ahmed; Belgacem, Imen; Schena, LeonardoPlant genotype is a crucial factor for the assembly of the plant-associated microbial communities. However, we still know little about the variation of diversity and structure of plant microbiomes across host species and genotypes. Here, we used six species of cereals (Avena sativa, Hordeum vulgare, Secale cereale, Triticum aestivum, Triticum polonicum, and Triticum turgidum) to test whether the plant fungal microbiome varies across species, and whether plant species use different mechanisms for microbiome assembly focusing on the plant ears. Using ITS2 amplicon metagenomics, we found that host species influences the diversity and structure of the seed-associated fungal communities. Then, we tested whether plant genotype influences the structure of seed fungal communities across different cultivars of T. aestivum (Aristato, Bologna, Rosia, and Vernia) and T. turgidum (Capeiti, Cappelli, Mazzancoio, Trinakria, and Timilia). We found that cultivar influences the seed fungal microbiome in both species. We found that in T. aestivum the seed fungal microbiota is more influenced by stochastic processes, while in T. turgidum selection plays a major role. Collectively, our results contribute to fill the knowledge gap on the wheat seed microbiome assembly and, together with other studies, might contribute to understand how we can manipulate this process to improve agriculture sustainability.
- ItemGlobal gridded crop model evaluation: Benchmarking, skills, deficiencies and implications(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Arneth, Almut; Balkovic, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Hoek, Steven; Iizumi, Toshichika; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Jones, Curtis; Khabarov, Nikolay; Lawrence, Peter; Liu, Wenfeng; Olin, Stefan; Pugh, Thomas A.M.; Ray, Deepak K.; Reddy, Ashwan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Sakurai, Gen; Schmid, Erwin; Skalsky, Rastislav; Song, Carol X.; Wang, Xuhui; de Wit, Allard; Yang, HongCrop models are increasingly used to simulate crop yields at the global scale, but so far there is no general framework on how to assess model performance. Here we evaluate the simulation results of 14 global gridded crop modeling groups that have contributed historic crop yield simulations for maize, wheat, rice and soybean to the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Simulation results are compared to reference data at global, national and grid cell scales and we evaluate model performance with respect to time series correlation, spatial correlation and mean bias. We find that global gridded crop models (GGCMs) show mixed skill in reproducing time series correlations or spatial patterns at the different spatial scales. Generally, maize, wheat and soybean simulations of many GGCMs are capable of reproducing larger parts of observed temporal variability (time series correlation coefficients (r) of up to 0.888 for maize, 0.673 for wheat and 0.643 for soybean at the global scale) but rice yield variability cannot be well reproduced by most models. Yield variability can be well reproduced for most major producing countries by many GGCMs and for all countries by at least some. A comparison with gridded yield data and a statistical analysis of the effects of weather variability on yield variability shows that the ensemble of GGCMs can explain more of the yield variability than an ensemble of regression models for maize and soybean, but not for wheat and rice. We identify future research needs in global gridded crop modeling and for all individual crop modeling groups. In the absence of a purely observation-based benchmark for model evaluation, we propose that the best performing crop model per crop and region establishes the benchmark for all others, and modelers are encouraged to investigate how crop model performance can be increased. We make our evaluation system accessible to all crop modelers so that other modeling groups can also test their model performance against the reference data and the GGCMI benchmark.
- ItemCrop Monitoring Using Sentinel-2 and UAV Multispectral Imagery: A Comparison Case Study in Northeastern Germany(Basel : MDPI, 2022) Li, Minhui; Shamshiri, Redmond R.; Weltzien, Cornelia; Schirrmann, MichaelMonitoring within-field crop variability at fine spatial and temporal resolution can assist farmers in making reliable decisions during their agricultural management; however, it traditionally involves a labor-intensive and time-consuming pointwise manual process. To the best of our knowledge, few studies conducted a comparison of Sentinel-2 with UAV data for crop monitoring in the context of precision agriculture. Therefore, prospects of crop monitoring for characterizing biophysical plant parameters and leaf nitrogen of wheat and barley crops were evaluated from a more practical viewpoint closer to agricultural routines. Multispectral UAV and Sentinel-2 imagery was collected over three dates in the season and compared with reference data collected at 20 sample points for plant leaf nitrogen (N), maximum plant height, mean plant height, leaf area index (LAI), and fresh biomass. Higher correlations of UAV data to the agronomic parameters were found on average than with Sentinel-2 data with a percentage increase of 6.3% for wheat and 22.2% for barley. In this regard, VIs calculated from spectral bands in the visible part performed worse for Sentinel-2 than for the UAV data. In addition, large-scale patterns, formed by the influence of an old riverbed on plant growth, were recognizable even in the Sentinel-2 imagery despite its much lower spatial resolution. Interestingly, also smaller features, such as the tramlines from controlled traffic farming (CTF), had an influence on the Sentinel-2 data and showed a systematic pattern that affected even semivariogram calculation. In conclusion, Sentinel-2 imagery is able to capture the same large-scale pattern as can be derived from the higher detailed UAV imagery; however, it is at the same time influenced by management-driven features such as tramlines, which cannot be accurately georeferenced. In consequence, agronomic parameters were better correlated with UAV than with Sentinel-2 data. Crop growers as well as data providers from remote sensing services may take advantage of this knowledge and we recommend the use of UAV data as it gives additional information about management-driven features. For future perspective, we would advise fusing UAV with Sentinel-2 imagery taken early in the season as it can integrate the effect of agricultural management in the subsequent absence of high spatial resolution data to help improve crop monitoring for the farmer and to reduce costs.