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Now showing 1 - 10 of 31
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    Drought losses in China might double between the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming
    (Washington, DC : NAS, 2018) Su, Buda; Huang, Jinlong; Fischer, Thomas; Wang, Yanjun; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Zhai, Jianqing; Sun, Hemin; Wang, Anqian; Zeng, Xiaofan; Wang, Guojie; Tao, Hui; Gemmer, Marco; Li, Xiucang; Jiang, Tong
    We project drought losses in China under global temperature increase of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a cluster analysis method, and “intensity-loss rate” function. In contrast to earlier studies, to project the drought losses, we predict the regional gross domestic product under shared socioeconomic pathways instead of using a static socioeconomic scenario. We identify increasing precipitation and evapotranspiration pattern for the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming above the preindustrial at 2020–2039 and 2040–2059, respectively. With increasing drought intensity and areal coverage across China, drought losses will soar. The estimated loss in a sustainable development pathway at the 1.5 °C warming level increases 10-fold in comparison with the reference period 1986–2005 and nearly threefold relative to the interval 2006–2015. However, limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 °C can reduce the annual drought losses in China by several tens of billions of US dollars, compared with the 2.0 °C warming.
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    Reply to Smith et al.: Social tipping dynamics in a world constrained by conflicting interests
    (Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2020) Otto, Ilona M.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
    [No abstract available]
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    Strong impact of wildfires on the abundance and aging of black carbon in the lowermost stratosphere
    (Washington, DC : NAS, 2018) Ditas, Jeannine; Ma, Nan; Zhang, Yuxuan; Assmann, Denise; Neumaier, Marco; Riede, Hella; Karu, Einar; Williams, Jonathan; Scharffe, Dieter; Wang, Qiaoqiao; Saturno, Jorge; Schwarz, Joshua P.; Katich, Joseph M.; McMeeking, Gavin R.; Zahn, Andreas; Hermann, Markus; Brenninkmeijer, Carl A. M.; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Pöschl, Ulrich; Su, Hang; Cheng, Yafang
    Wildfires inject large amounts of black carbon (BC) particles into the atmosphere, which can reach the lowermost stratosphere (LMS) and cause strong radiative forcing. During a 14-month period of observations on board a passenger aircraft flying between Europe and North America, we found frequent and widespread biomass burning (BB) plumes, influencing 16 of 160 flight hours in the LMS. The average BC mass concentrations in these plumes (∼140 ng·m−3, standard temperature and pressure) were over 20 times higher than the background concentration (∼6 ng·m−3) with more than 100-fold enhanced peak values (up to ∼720 ng·m−3). In the LMS, nearly all BC particles were covered with a thick coating. The average mass equivalent diameter of the BC particle cores was ∼120 nm with a mean coating thickness of ∼150 nm in the BB plume and ∼90 nm with a coating of ∼125 nm in the background. In a BB plume that was encountered twice, we also found a high diameter growth rate of ∼1 nm·h−1 due to the BC particle coatings. The observed high concentrations and thick coatings of BC particles demonstrate that wildfires can induce strong local heating in the LMS and may have a significant influence on the regional radiative forcing of climate.
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    Exploring functional pairing between surface glycoconjugates and human galectins using programmable glycodendrimersomes
    (Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2018) Xiao, Qi; Ludwig, Anna-Kristin; Romanò, Cecilia; Buzzacchera, Irene; Sherman, Samuel E.; Vetro, Maria; Vértesy, Sabine; Kaltner, Herbert; Reed, Ellen H.; Möller, Martin; Wilson, Christopher J.; Hammer, Daniel A.; Oscarson, Stefan; Klein, Michael L.; Gabius, Hans-Joachim; Percec, Virgil
    Precise translation of glycan-encoded information into cellular activity depends critically on highly specific functional pairing between glycans and their human lectin counter receptors. Sulfoglycolipids, such as sulfatides, are important glycolipid components of the biological membranes found in the nervous and immune systems. The optimal molecular and spatial design aspects of sulfated and nonsulfated glycans with high specificity for lectin-mediated bridging are unknown. To elucidate how different molecular and spatial aspects combine to ensure the high specificity of lectin-mediated bridging, a bottom-up toolbox is devised. To this end, negatively surface-charged glycodendrimersomes (GDSs), of different nanoscale dimensions, containing sulfo-lactose groups are self-assembled in buffer from a synthetic sulfatide mimic: Janus glycodendrimer (JGD) containing a 3′-O-sulfo-lactose headgroup. Also prepared for comparative analysis are GDSs with nonsulfated lactose, a common epitope of human membranes. These self-assembled GDSs are employed in aggregation assays with 15 galectins, comprising disease-related human galectins, and other natural and engineered variants from four families, having homodimeric, heterodimeric, and chimera architectures. There are pronounced differences in aggregation capacity between human homodimeric and heterodimeric galectins, and also with respect to their responsiveness to the charge of carbohydrate-derived ligand. Assays reveal strong differential impact of ligand surface charge and density, as well as lectin concentration and structure, on the extent of surface cross-linking. These findings demonstrate how synthetic JGD-headgroup tailoring teamed with protein engineering and network assays can help explain how molecular matchmaking operates in the cellular context of glycan and lectin complexity.
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    Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth's climate by 2050
    (2020) Otto, Ilona M.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Cremades, Roger; Bhowmik, Avit; Hewitt, Richard J.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rockström, Johan; Allerberger, Franziska; McCaffrey, Mark; Doe, Sylvanus S.P.; Lenferna, Alex; Morán, Nerea; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
    Safely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 y. Accelerated technological progress and policy implementations are required to deliver emissions reductions at rates sufficiently fast to avoid crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth's climate system. Here, we discuss and evaluate the potential of social tipping interventions (STIs) that can activate contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behaviors, social norms, and structural reorganization within their functional domains that we refer to as social tipping elements (STEs). STEs are subdomains of the planetary socioeconomic system where the required disruptive change may take place and lead to a sufficiently fast reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results are based on online expert elicitation, a subsequent expert workshop, and a literature review. The STIs that could trigger the tipping of STE subsystems include 1) removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation (STE1, energy production and storage systems), 2) building carbon-neutral cities (STE2, human settlements), 3) divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels (STE3, financial markets), 4) revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels (STE4, norms and value systems), 5) strengthening climate education and engagement (STE5, education system), and 6) disclosing information on greenhouse gas emissions (STE6, information feedbacks). Our research reveals important areas of focus for larger-scale empirical and modeling efforts to better understand the potentials of harnessing social tipping dynamics for climate change mitigation.
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    European H2020 Project WORTECS Wireless Mixed Reality Prototyping
    (Oulu : Academy Publisher, 2020) Bouchet, Olivier; O'Brien, Dominic; Singh, Ravinder; Faulkner, Grahame; Ghoraishi, Mir; Garcia-Marquez, Jorge; Vercasson, Guillaume; Brzozowski, Marcin; Sark, Vladica
    This paper presents European collaborative project WORTECS objectives and reports on the development of several radio and optical wireless prototypes and a demonstrator targeting mixed reality (MR) application. The aim is to achieve a net throughput of up to Tbps in an indoor heterogeneous network for the MR use case, which seems to be a high throughput "killer application" beyond 5G. A special routing device is associated with the demonstrator to select the most suitable wireless access technology. Post introduction to the project, an overview of the demonstrator is presented with details of the current progress of the prototypes.
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    The Planetary Health Academy—a virtual lecture series for transformative education in Germany
    (Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2023) Gepp, Sophie; Jung, Laura; Wabnitz, Katharina; Schneider, Frederick; v Gierke, Friederike; Otto, Hannah; Hartmann, Sylvia; Gemke, Theresa; Schulz, Christian; Gabrysch, Sabine; Fast, Marischa; Schwienhorst-Stich, Eva-Maria
    The planetary crises require health professionals to understand the interlinkages between health and environmental changes, and how to reduce ecological harm (ie, ecological footprint) and promote positive change (ie, ecological handprint). However, health professions’ education and training are mostly lacking these aspects. In this Viewpoint, we report findings from the evaluation of the Planetary Health Academy, the first open online lecture series for transformative planetary health education in Germany. In a retrospective online survey, 458 of 3656 Planetary Health Academy participants reported on their emotions towards climate change, attitudes towards health professionals’ responsibilities, self-efficacy, and the contribution of the Planetary Health Academy to their knowledge and actions. Additionally, motivators and barriers to acting were assessed. Our findings provide insights that can inform future efforts for transformative education. Combined with network and movement building, education could act as a social tipping element toward actions to mitigate global environmental changes.
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    Analysis of riboflavin/ultraviolet a corneal cross-linking by molecular spectroscopy
    (London [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2023) Melcher, Steven; Zimmerer, Cordelia; Galli, Roberta; Golde, Jonas; Herber, Robert; Raiskup, Frederik; Koch, Edmund; Steiner, Gerald
    Corneal cross-linking (CXL) with riboflavin and ultraviolet A light is a therapeutic procedure to restore the mechanical stability of corneal tissue. The treatment method is applied to pathological tissue, such as keratoconus and induces the formation of new cross-links. At present, the molecular mechanisms of induced cross-linking are still not known exactly. In this study, we investigated molecular alterations within porcine cornea tissue after treatment with riboflavin and ultraviolet A light by surface enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS). For that purpose, after CXL treatment a thin silver layer was vapor-deposited onto cornea flaps. To explore molecular alterations induced by the photochemical process hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) was used. The detailed analysis of SERS spectra reveals that there is no general change in collagen secondary structure while modifications on amino acid side chains are the most dominant outcome. The formation of secondary and aromatic amine groups as well as methylene and carbonyl groups were observed. Even though successful cross-linking could not be registered in all treated samples, Raman signals of newly formed chemical groups are already present in riboflavin only treated corneas.
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    Emergent inequality and business cycles in a simple behavioral macroeconomic model
    (Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2021) Asano, Yuki M.; Kolb, Jakob J.; Heitzig, Jobst; Farmer, J. Doyne
    Standard macroeconomic models assume that households are rational in the sense that they are perfect utility maximizers and explain economic dynamics in terms of shocks that drive the economy away from the steady state. Here we build on a standard macroeconomic model in which a single rational representative household makes a savings decision of how much to consume or invest. In our model, households are myopic boundedly rational heterogeneous agents embedded in a social network. From time to time each household updates its savings rate by copying the savings rate of its neighbor with the highest consumption. If the updating time is short, the economy is stuck in a poverty trap, but for longer updating times economic output approaches its optimal value, and we observe a critical transition to an economy with irregular endogenous oscillations in economic output, resembling a business cycle. In this regime households divide into two groups: poor households with low savings rates and rich households with high savings rates. Thus, inequality and economic dynamics both occur spontaneously as a consequence of imperfect household decision-making. Adding a few “rational” agents with a fixed savings rate equal to the long-term optimum allows us to match business cycle timescales. Our work here supports an alternative program of research that substitutes utility maximization for behaviorally grounded decision-making.
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    This looks More Like that: Enhancing Self-Explaining Models by prototypical relevance propagation: This Looks More Like That
    (Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2022) Gautam, Srishti; Höhne, Marina M.-C.; Hansen, Stine; Jenssen, Robert; Kampffmeyer, Michael
    Current machine learning models have shown high efficiency in solving a wide variety of real-world problems. However, their black box character poses a major challenge for the comprehensibility and traceability of the underlying decision-making strategies. As a remedy, numerous post-hoc and self-explanation methods have been developed to interpret the models’ behavior. Those methods, in addition, enable the identification of artifacts that, inherent in the training data, can be erroneously learned by the model as class-relevant features. In this work, we provide a detailed case study of a representative for the state-of-the-art self-explaining network, ProtoPNet, in the presence of a spectrum of artifacts. Accordingly, we identify the main drawbacks of ProtoPNet, especially its coarse and spatially imprecise explanations. We address these limitations by introducing Prototypical Relevance Propagation (PRP), a novel method for generating more precise model-aware explanations. Furthermore, in order to obtain a clean, artifact-free dataset, we propose to use multi-view clustering strategies for segregating the artifact images using the PRP explanations, thereby suppressing the potential artifact learning in the models.