Common solar wind drivers behind magnetic storm–magnetospheric substorm dependency

Abstract

The dynamical relationship between magnetic storms and magnetospheric substorms is one of the most controversial issues of contemporary space research. Here, we address this issue through a causal inference approach to two corresponding indices in conjunction with several relevant solar wind variables. We find that the vertical component of the interplanetary magnetic field is the strongest and common driver of both storms and substorms. Further, our results suggest, at least based on the analyzed indices, that there is no statistical evidence for a direct or indirect dependency between substorms and storms and their statistical association can be explained by the common solar drivers. Given the powerful statistical tests we performed (by simultaneously taking into account time series of indices and solar wind variables), a physical mechanism through which substorms directly or indirectly drive storms or vice versa is, therefore, unlikely.