Improved earthquake aftershocks forecasting model based on long-term memory
dc.bibliographicCitation.firstPage | 042001 | eng |
dc.bibliographicCitation.issue | 4 | eng |
dc.bibliographicCitation.journalTitle | New journal of physics : the open-access journal for physics | eng |
dc.bibliographicCitation.volume | 23 | eng |
dc.contributor.author | Zhang, Yongwen | |
dc.contributor.author | Zhou, Dong | |
dc.contributor.author | Fan, Jingfang | |
dc.contributor.author | Marzocchi, Warner | |
dc.contributor.author | Ashkenazy, Yosef | |
dc.contributor.author | Havlin, Shlomo | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-03-30T11:40:02Z | |
dc.date.available | 2022-03-30T11:40:02Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2021 | |
dc.description.abstract | A prominent feature of earthquakes is their empirical laws, including memory (clustering) in time and space. Several earthquake forecasting models, such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, were developed based on these empirical laws. Yet, a recent study [1] showed that the ETAS model fails to reproduce the significant long-term memory characteristics found in real earthquake catalogs. Here we modify and generalize the ETAS model to include short- and long-term triggering mechanisms, to account for the short- and long-time memory (exponents) discovered in the data. Our generalized ETAS model accurately reproduces the short- and long-term/distance memory observed in the Italian and Southern Californian earthquake catalogs. The revised ETAS model is also found to improve earthquake forecasting after large shocks. | eng |
dc.description.version | publishedVersion | eng |
dc.identifier.uri | https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/8475 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://doi.org/10.34657/7513 | |
dc.language.iso | eng | eng |
dc.publisher | [London] : IOP | eng |
dc.relation.doi | https://doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630/abeb46 | |
dc.relation.essn | 1367-2630 | |
dc.rights.license | CC BY 4.0 Unported | eng |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | eng |
dc.subject.ddc | 530 | eng |
dc.subject.other | earthquake memory | eng |
dc.subject.other | ETAS model | eng |
dc.subject.other | forecasting | eng |
dc.title | Improved earthquake aftershocks forecasting model based on long-term memory | eng |
dc.type | Article | eng |
dc.type | Text | eng |
tib.accessRights | openAccess | eng |
wgl.contributor | PIK | eng |
wgl.subject | Physik | eng |
wgl.type | Zeitschriftenartikel | eng |
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