Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change

dc.bibliographicCitation.firstPage3467
dc.bibliographicCitation.issue11
dc.bibliographicCitation.journalTitleNatural Hazards and Earth System Scienceseng
dc.bibliographicCitation.lastPage3485
dc.bibliographicCitation.volume23
dc.contributor.authorMester, Benedikt
dc.contributor.authorVogt, Thomas
dc.contributor.authorBryant, Seth
dc.contributor.authorOtto, Christian
dc.contributor.authorFrieler, Katja
dc.contributor.authorSchewe, Jacob
dc.date.accessioned2024-06-13T06:50:14Z
dc.date.available2024-06-13T06:50:14Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.description.abstractExtreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, often trigger population displacement. The frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are affected by anthropogenic climate change. However, the effect of historical climate change on displacement risk has so far not been quantified. Here, we show how displacement can be partially attributed to climate change using the example of the 2019 Tropical Cyclone Idai in Mozambique. We estimate the population exposed to high water levels following Idai's landfall using a combination of a 2D hydrodynamical storm surge model and a flood depth estimation algorithm to determine inland flood depths from remote sensing images, factual (climate change) and counterfactual (no climate change) mean sea level, and maximum wind speed conditions. Our main estimates indicate that climate change has increased displacement risk from this event by approximately 12 600-14 900 additional displaced persons, corresponding to about 2.7 % to 3.2 % of the observed displacements. The isolated effect of wind speed intensification is double that of sea level rise. These results are subject to important uncertainties related to both data and modeling assumptions, and we perform multiple sensitivity experiments to assess the range of uncertainty where possible. Besides highlighting the significant effects on humanitarian conditions already imparted by climate change, our study provides a blueprint for event-based displacement attribution.eng
dc.description.fondsLeibniz_Fonds
dc.description.versionpublishedVersioneng
dc.identifier.urihttps://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/14694
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.34657/13716
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherKatlenburg-Lindau : European Geophysical Society
dc.relation.doihttps://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023
dc.relation.essn1684-9981
dc.rights.licenseCC BY 4.0 Unported
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
dc.subject.ddc910
dc.subject.otherMozambiqueeng
dc.subject.otheralgorithmeng
dc.subject.otherclimate changeeng
dc.subject.otherforced migrationeng
dc.subject.othersea level changeeng
dc.subject.otherstorm surgeeng
dc.subject.othertropical cycloneeng
dc.subject.otherwind velocityeng
dc.titleHuman displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate changeeng
dc.typeArticleeng
dc.typeTexteng
tib.accessRightsopenAccess
wgl.contributorPIK
wgl.subjectGeowissenschaftenger
wgl.typeZeitschriftenartikelger
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