Long‐Term Changes in the Northern Midwinter Middle Atmosphere in Relation to the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation

Abstract

Long-term changes in the middle atmosphere due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are examined in relation to the effect of the equatorial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the northern midwinter circulation. The examinations are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations for 1979–2100 with the Earth-System-Model MPI-ESM-MR that generates the QBO internally. In particular, the three-dimensional residual circulation is used as proxy for the Brewer-Dobson circulation, revealing an increasing downwelling in the center of the polar low over Northern Europe/Siberia (~5% per decade). The changes in northern midwinter temperature, zonal wind, and residual circulation are much stronger during westerly (QBO-W) than easterly (QBO-E) phase of QBO (e.g., for a moderate increase in greenhouse gases, we find maximum decreases in the zonal mean westerly jet at 60°N and 3 hPa of about −14.8 ± 5.4 m/s for QBO-W but only −4.7 ± 5.2 m/s for QBO-E). This is due to a change of the extratropical QBO-W signature toward QBO-E signature while the equatorial QBO remains nearly unchanged (i.e., a change toward disappearance of the so-called Holton-Tan relationship). Similar to the current change from QBO-W to QBO-E signature, the changes during QBO-W include an increase in amplitude and eastward shift in phase of stratospheric stationary Wave 1 at the cost of Wave 2, with decreasing westerlies over North America and increasing downwelling over Siberia. The eastward shift in phase of stationary Wave 1 is related to the associated increase in meridional transport of planetary vorticity. © 2019. The Authors.