Pedestrian exposure to black carbon and PM2.5 emissions in urban hot spots: new findings using mobile measurement techniques and flexible Bayesian regression models

Abstract

Background Data from extensive mobile measurements (MM) of air pollutants provide spatially resolved information on pedestrians’ exposure to particulate matter (black carbon (BC) and PM2.5 mass concentrations). Objective We present a distributional regression model in a Bayesian framework that estimates the effects of spatiotemporal factors on the pollutant concentrations influencing pedestrian exposure. Methods We modeled the mean and variance of the pollutant concentrations obtained from MM in two cities and extended commonly used lognormal models with a lognormal-normal convolution (logNNC) extension for BC to account for instrument measurement error. Results The logNNC extension significantly improved the BC model. From these model results, we found local sources and, hence, local mitigation efforts to improve air quality, have more impact on the ambient levels of BC mass concentrations than on the regulated PM2.5. Significance Firstly, this model (logNNC in bamlss package available in R) could be used for the statistical analysis of MM data from various study areas and pollutants with the potential for predicting pollutant concentrations in urban areas. Secondly, with respect to pedestrian exposure, it is crucial for BC mass concentration to be monitored and regulated in areas dominated by traffic-related air pollution.