Predicting climate change impacts on the crop microbiome and cascading effects on ecosystem services delivery in agroecosystems - MICROSERVICES

Abstract

The MICROSERVICES project aimed to better understand and predict the impact of climate change on soil biodiversity and ecosystem functioning within European cropping systems. Additionally, it sought to raise political and public awareness about the importance of soil biodiversity for sustainable agriculture. By assessing shifts in soil biodiversity across a European climate gradient using regional climate models, the project created a detailed map of biogeoclimatic regions and forecasted future climate changes using different emission scenarios. Soil biodiversity data from European croplands were collected through the LUCAS Soil network in collaboration with the Joint Research Center (JRC). The reaults showed that soil biodiversity and multifunctionality is shaped by agroclimatic zones, indicating that future climate conditions could significantly affect soil biodiversity and ecosystem services. Machine learning algorithms revealed that local soil properties were more crucial determinants of soil biodiversity than climatic factors, challenging the prevailing view that climate is the primary driver. This highlights the need for region-specific soil conservation strategies tailored to local ecological characteristics. To further invetigate whether certain agricultural management regimes can mitigate climate change effects on soil biodiversity, a drought simulation experiment was conducted in the DOK long-term trial, the world’s oldest field trial comparing organic and conventional cropping systems since 1978. Previous research in this trial demonstrated that organic systems had higher soil organic carbon and biodiversity, potentially influencing their ability to mitigate drought effects. The simulated drought reduced soil activity and biodiversity in all systems, with fungi being more affected than prokaryotes. Biodiversity closely associated with plants was most impacted, raising concerns about the effects on microbially-mediated processes essential for crop growth and health. Both organic and conventional cropping systems experienced similar levels of water stress and biodiversity shifts, but each system maintained a unique soil biodiversity under drought stress with specific plant-growth promoting and stress tolerating traits, emphasizing the importance of legacy effects under future climate conditions. MICROSERVICES has enhanced our understanding of how climate change impacts cropping systems and underscored the importance of tailored agricultural practices adapted to local contexts to build sustainable and climate-smart agroecosystems. Region-specific soil conservation strategies are essential for mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture and ensuring food security. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and will help build resilient agricultural systems capable of withstanding future climate challenges, ultimately contributing to sustainable agricultural development and environmental conservation.