Hydrological extremes in the Aksu‑tarim river Basin: Climatology and regime shift

Abstract

Precipitation data between 1961 and 2010 from 39 meteorological stations in the Tarim River Basin are analyzed to classify and investigate hydrological drought and wetness conditions by using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The leading time and spatial variability of hydrological drought has been investigated by applying a principal component analysis and Varimax rotation to the SPI on a time scale of 24 months. The results suggest that the western basin is characterized by a clear tendency towards wetter conditions after the middle of the 1980s, which results from an increase in the number of wet extremes and can be considered as a regime shift. Subdividing the period of analysis into two parts (1961–1986 and 1987–2010) this change can be clearly seen in a shift of the probability distribution function of precipitation events. Composite analyses of monthly mean geopotential height fields and wind fields of the ERA-40 data set show that enhanced wetness in the Tarim River Basin after the middle of 1980s is closely related to cyclonic anomalies on the European continent and circulation anomalies over mid-latitude of the Northern Hemisphere. Further correlation analysis between the principal components of SPI and large circulation indices shows that hydrological extremes in the Tarim River Basin correlate with indices related to the polar vortex and subtropical high.