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- ItemIntegrating climate change adaptation in coastal governance of the Barcelona metropolitan area(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 2021) Sauer, Inga J.; Roca, Elisabet; Villares, MíriamCoastal cities are exposed to high risks due to climate change, as they are potentially affected by both rising sea levels and increasingly intense and frequent coastal storms. Socio-economic drivers also increase exposure to natural hazards, accelerate environmental degradation, and require adaptive governance structures to moderate negative impacts. Here, we use a social network analysis (SNA) combined with further qualitative information to identify barriers and enablers of adaptive governance in the Barcelona metropolitan area. By analyzing how climate change adaptation is mainstreamed between different administrative scales as well as different societal actors, we can determine the governance structures and external conditions that hamper or foster strategical adaptation plans from being used as operational adaptation tools. We identify a diverse set of stakeholders acting at different administrative levels (local to national), in public administration, science, civil society, and the tourism economy. The metropolitan administration acts as an important bridging organization by promoting climate change adaptation to different interest groups and by passing knowledge between actors. Nonetheless, national adaptation planning fails to take into account local experiences in coastal protection, which leads to an ineffective science policy interaction and limits adaptive management and learning opportunities. Overcoming this is difficult, however, as the effectiveness of local adaptation strategies in the Barcelona metropolitan area is very limited due to a strong centralization of power at the national level and a lack of polycentricity. Due to the high touristic pressure, the legal framework is currently oriented to primarily meet the demands of recreational use and tourism, prioritizing these aspects in daily management practice. Therefore, touristic and economic activities need to be aligned to adaptation efforts, to convert them from barriers into drivers for adaptation action. Our work strongly suggests that more effectively embedding adaptation planning and action into existing legal structures of coastal management would allow strategic adaptation plans to be an effective operational tool for local coastal governance.
- ItemCyclostratigraphy and paleoenvironmental inference from downhole logging of sediments in tropical Lake Towuti, Indonesia(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 2021) Ulfers, A.; Hesse, K.; Zeeden, C.; Russell, J.M.; Vogel, H.; Bijaksana, S.; Wonik, T.Lake Towuti is located on central Sulawesi/Indonesia, within the Indo Pacific Warm Pool, a globally important region for atmospheric heat and moisture budgets. In 2015 the Towuti Drilling Project recovered more than 1000 m of drill core from the lake, along with downhole geophysical logging data from two drilling sites. The cores constitute the longest continuous lacustrine sediment succession from the Indo Pacific Warm Pool. We combined lithological descriptions with borehole logging data and used multivariate statistics to better understand the cyclic sequence, paleoenvironments, and geochronology of these sediments. Accurate chronologies are crucial to analyze and interpret paleoclimate records. Astronomical tuning can help build age-depth models and fill gaps between age control points. Cyclostratigraphic investigations were conducted on a downhole magnetic susceptibility log from the lacustrine facies (10–98 m below lake floor) from a continuous record of sediments in Lake Towuti. This study provides insights into the sedimentary history of the basin between radiometric ages derived from dating a tephra layer (~ 797 ka) and C14-ages (~ 45 ka) in the cores. We derived an age model that spans from late marine isotope stage (MIS) 23 to late MIS 6 (903 ± 11 to 131 ± 67 ka). Although uncertainties caused by the relatively short record and the small differences in the physical properties of sediments limited the efficacy of our approach, we suggest that eccentricity cycles and/or global glacial-interglacial climate variability were the main drivers of local variations in hydroclimate in central Indonesia. We generated the first nearly complete age-depth model for the lacustrine facies of Lake Towuti and examined the potential of geophysical downhole logging for time estimation and lithological description. Future lake drilling projects will benefit from this approach, since logging data are available just after the drilling campaign, whereas core descriptions, though more resolved, only become available months to years later.
- ItemUncertainty Quantification in Image Segmentation Using the Ambrosio–Tortorelli Approximation of the Mumford–Shah Energy(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 2021) Hintermüller, Michael; Stengl, Steven-Marian; Surowiec, Thomas M.The quantification of uncertainties in image segmentation based on the Mumford–Shah model is studied. The aim is to address the error propagation of noise and other error types in the original image to the restoration result and especially the reconstructed edges (sharp image contrasts). Analytically, we rely on the Ambrosio–Tortorelli approximation and discuss the existence of measurable selections of its solutions as well as sampling-based methods and the limitations of other popular methods. Numerical examples illustrate the theoretical findings.
- ItemResistance of the Montgomery Ladder Against Simple SCA: Theory and Practice(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 2021) Kabin, Ievgen; Dyka, Zoya; Klann, Dan; Aftowicz, Marcin; Langendoerfer, PeterThe Montgomery kP algorithm i.e. the Montgomery ladder is reported in literature as resistant against simple SCA due to the fact that the processing of each key bit value of the scalar k is done using the same sequence of operations. We implemented the Montgomery kP algorithm using Lopez-Dahab projective coordinates for the NIST elliptic curve B-233. We instantiated the same VHDL code for a wide range of clock frequencies for the same target FPGA and using the same compiler options. We measured electromagnetic traces of the kP executions using the same input data, i.e. scalar k and elliptic curve point P, and measurement setup. Additionally, we synthesized the same VHDL code for two IHP CMOS technologies, for a broad spectrum of frequencies. We simulated the power consumption of each synthesized design during an execution of the kP operation, always using the same scalar k and elliptic curve point P as inputs. Our experiments clearly show that the success of simple electromagnetic analysis attacks against FPGA implementations as well as the one of simple power analysis attacks against synthesized ASIC designs depends on the target frequency for which the design was implemented and at which it is executed significantly. In our experiments the scalar k was successfully revealed via simple visual inspection of the electromagnetic traces of the FPGA for frequencies from 40 to 100 MHz when standard compile options were used as well as from 50 MHz up to 240 MHz when performance optimizing compile options were used. We obtained similar results attacking the power traces simulated for the ASIC. Despite the significant differences of the here investigated technologies the designs’ resistance against the attacks performed is similar: only a few points in the traces represent strong leakage sources allowing to reveal the key at very low and very high frequencies. For the “middle” frequencies the number of points which allow to successfully reveal the key increases when increasing the frequency.
- ItemMultiscale Coupling of One-dimensional Vascular Models and Elastic Tissues(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 2021) Heltai, Luca; Caiazzo, Alfonso; Müller, Lucas O.We present a computational multiscale model for the efficient simulation of vascularized tissues, composed of an elastic three-dimensional matrix and a vascular network. The effect of blood vessel pressure on the elastic tissue is surrogated via hyper-singular forcing terms in the elasticity equations, which depend on the fluid pressure. In turn, the blood flow in vessels is treated as a one-dimensional network. Intravascular pressure and velocity are simulated using a high-order finite volume scheme, while the elasticity equations for the tissue are solved using a finite element method. This work addresses the feasibility and the potential of the proposed coupled multiscale model. In particular, we assess whether the multiscale model is able to reproduce the tissue response at the effective scale (of the order of millimeters) while modeling the vasculature at the microscale. We validate the multiscale method against a full scale (three-dimensional) model, where the fluid/tissue interface is fully discretized and treated as a Neumann boundary for the elasticity equation. Next, we present simulation results obtained with the proposed approach in a realistic scenario, demonstrating that the method can robustly and efficiently handle the one-way coupling between complex fluid microstructures and the elastic matrix. © 2021, The Author(s).
- ItemEvaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 2021) Wilson, Charlie; Guivarch, Céline; Kriegler, Elmar; van Ruijven, Bas; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Krey, Volker; Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Thompson, Erica L.Process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation pathways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models’ usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate change mitigation. We contribute the first comprehensive synthesis of process-based IAM evaluation research, drawing on a wide range of examples across six different evaluation methods including historical simulations, stylised facts, and model diagnostics. For each evaluation method, we identify progress and milestones to date, and draw out lessons learnt as well as challenges remaining. We find that each evaluation method has distinctive strengths, as well as constraints on its application. We use these insights to propose a systematic evaluation framework combining multiple methods to establish the appropriateness, interpretability, credibility, and relevance of process-based IAMs as useful scientific tools for informing climate policy. We also set out a programme of evaluation research to be mainstreamed both within and outside the IAM community.
- ItemMassive stars in extremely metal-poor galaxies: a window into the past(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 2021) Garcia, Miriam; Evans, Christopher J.; Bestenlehner, Joachim M.; Bouret, Jean Claude; Castro, Norberto; Cerviño, Miguel; Fullerton, Alexander W.; Gieles, Mark; Herrero, Artemio; de Koter, Alexander; Lennon, Daniel J.; van Loon, Jacco Th.; Martins, Fabrice; de Mink, Selma E.; Najarro, Francisco; Negueruela, Ignacio; Sana, Hugues; Simón-Díaz, Sergio; Szécsi, Dorottya; Tramper, Frank; Vink, Jorick S.; Wofford, AidaCosmic history has witnessed the lives and deaths of multiple generations of massive stars, all of them invigorating their host galaxies with ionizing photons, kinetic energy, fresh material, and stellar-mass black holes. Ubiquitous engines as they are, astrophysics needs a good understanding of their formation, evolution, properties and yields throughout the history of the Universe, and with decreasing metal content mimicking the environment at the earliest epochs. Ultimately, a physical model that could be extrapolated to zero metallicity would enable tackling long-standing questions such as “What did the first, very massive stars of the Universe look like?” or “What was their role in the re-ionization of the Universe?” Yet, most of our knowledge of metal-poor massive stars is drawn from one single point in metallicity. Massive stars in the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC, ∼1/5Z⊙ ) currently serve as templates for low-metallicity objects in the early Universe, even though significant differences with respect to massive stars with poorer metal content have been reported. This White Paper summarizes the current knowledge on extremely (sub-SMC) metal poor massive stars, highlighting the most outstanding open questions and the need to supersede the SMC as standard. A new paradigm can be built from nearby extremely metal-poor galaxies that make a new metallicity ladder, but massive stars in these galaxies are out of reach to current observational facilities. Such a task would require an L-size mission, consisting of a 10m-class space telescope operating in the optical and the ultraviolet ranges. Alternatively, we propose that ESA unites efforts with NASA to make the LUVOIR mission concept a reality, thus continuing the successful partnership that made the Hubble Space Telescope one of the greatest observatories of all time.
- ItemExoClock project: an open platform for monitoring the ephemerides of Ariel targets with contributions from the public(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 2021) Kokori, Anastasia; Tsiaras, Angelos; Edwards, Billy; Rocchetto, Marco; Tinetti, Giovanna; Wünsche, Anaël; Paschalis, Nikolaos; Agnihotri, Vikrant Kumar; Bachschmidt, Matthieu; Bretton, Marc; Caines, Hamish; Caló, Mauro; Casali, Roland; Crow, Martin; Dawes, Simon; Deldem, Marc; Deligeorgopoulos, Dimitrios; Dymock, Roger; Evans, Phil; Falco, Carmelo; Ferratfiat, Stephane; Fowler, Martin; Futcher, Stephen; Guerra, Pere; Hurter, Francois; Jones, Adrian; Kang, Wonseok; Kim, Taewoo; Lee, Richard; Lopresti, Claudio; Marino, Antonio; Mallonn, Matthias; Mortari, Fabio; Morvan, Mario; Mugnai, Lorenzo V.; Nastasi, Alessandro; Perroud, Valère; Pereira, Cédric; Phillips, Mark; Pintr, Pavel; Raetz, Manfred; Regembal, Francois; Savage, John; Sedita, Danilo; Sioulas, Nick; Strikis, Iakovos; Thurston, Geoffrey; Tomacelli, Andrea; Tomatis, AlbertoThe Ariel mission will observe spectroscopically around 1000 exoplanets to further characterise their atmospheres. For the mission to be as efficient as possible, a good knowledge of the planets’ ephemerides is needed before its launch in 2028. While ephemerides for some planets are being refined on a per-case basis, an organised effort to collectively verify or update them when necessary does not exist. In this study, we introduce the ExoClock project, an open, integrated and interactive platform with the purpose of producing a confirmed list of ephemerides for the planets that will be observed by Ariel. The project has been developed in a manner to make the best use of all available resources: observations reported in the literature, observations from space instruments and, mainly, observations from ground-based telescopes, including both professional and amateur observatories. To facilitate inexperienced observers and at the same time achieve homogeneity in the results, we created data collection and validation protocols, educational material and easy to use interfaces, open to everyone. ExoClock was launched in September 2019 and now counts over 140 participants from more than 15 countries around the world. In this release, we report the results of observations obtained until the 15h of April 2020 for 120 Ariel candidate targets. In total, 632 observations were used to either verify or update the ephemerides of 84 planets. Additionally, we developed the Exoplanet Characterisation Catalogue (ECC), a catalogue built in a consistent way to assist the ephemeris refinement process. So far, the collaborative open framework of the ExoClock project has proven to be highly efficient in coordinating scientific efforts involving diverse audiences. Therefore, we believe that it is a paradigm that can be applied in the future for other research purposes, too.
- ItemThe high energy Universe at ultra-high resolution: the power and promise of X-ray interferometry(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 2021) Uttley, Phil; Hartog, Roland den; Bambi, Cosimo; Barret, Didier; Bianchi, Stefano; Bursa, Michal; Cappi, Massimo; Casella, Piergiorgio; Cash, Webster; Costantini, Elisa; Dauser, Thomas; Trigo, Maria Diaz; Gendreau, Keith; Grinberg, Victoria; Herder, Jan-Willem den; Ingram, Adam; Kara, Erin; Markoff, Sera; Mingo, Beatriz; Panessa, Francesca; Poppenhäger, Katja; Różańska, Agata; Svoboda, Jiri; Wijers, Ralph; Willingale, Richard; Wilms, Jörn; Wise, MichaelWe propose the development of X-ray interferometry (XRI), to reveal the Universe at high energies with ultra-high spatial resolution. With baselines which can be accommodated on a single spacecraft, XRI can reach 100 μ as resolution at 10 Å (1.2 keV) and 20 μ as at 2 Å (6 keV), enabling imaging and imaging-spectroscopy of (for example) X-ray coronae of nearby accreting supermassive black holes (SMBH) and the SMBH ‘shadow’; SMBH accretion flows and outflows; X-ray binary winds and orbits; stellar coronae within ∼100 pc and many exoplanets which transit across them. For sufficiently luminous sources XRI will resolve sub-pc scales across the entire observable Universe, revealing accreting binary SMBHs and enabling trigonometric measurements of the Hubble constant with X-ray light echoes from quasars or explosive transients. A multi-spacecraft ‘constellation’ interferometer would resolve well below 1 μ as, enabling SMBH event horizons to be resolved in many active galaxies and the detailed study of the effects of strong field gravity on the dynamics and emission from accreting gas close to the black hole.
- ItemCausal coupling inference from multivariate time series based on ordinal partition transition networks(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 2021) Subramaniyam, Narayan Puthanmadam; Donner, Reik V.; Caron, Davide; Panuccio, Gabriella; Hyttinen, JariIdentifying causal relationships is a challenging yet crucial problem in many fields of science like epidemiology, climatology, ecology, genomics, economics and neuroscience, to mention only a few. Recent studies have demonstrated that ordinal partition transition networks (OPTNs) allow inferring the coupling direction between two dynamical systems. In this work, we generalize this concept to the study of the interactions among multiple dynamical systems and we propose a new method to detect causality in multivariate observational data. By applying this method to numerical simulations of coupled linear stochastic processes as well as two examples of interacting nonlinear dynamical systems (coupled Lorenz systems and a network of neural mass models), we demonstrate that our approach can reliably identify the direction of interactions and the associated coupling delays. Finally, we study real-world observational microelectrode array electrophysiology data from rodent brain slices to identify the causal coupling structures underlying epileptiform activity. Our results, both from simulations and real-world data, suggest that OPTNs can provide a complementary and robust approach to infer causal effect networks from multivariate observational data.