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- ItemGlobal, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2021) Zhao, Qi; Guo, Yuming; Ye, Tingting; Gasparrini, Antonio; Tong, Shilu; Overcenco, Ala; Urban, Aleš; Schneider, Alexandra; Entezari, Alireza; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Zanobetti, Antonella; Analitis, Antonis; Zeka, Ariana; Tobias, Aurelio; Nunes, Baltazar; Alahmad, Barrak; Armstrong, Ben; Forsberg, Bertil; Pan, Shih-Chun; Íñiguez, Carmen; Ameling, Caroline; De la Cruz Valencia, César; Åström, Christofer; Houthuijs, Danny; Dung, Do Van; Royé, Dominic; Indermitte, Ene; Lavigne, Eric; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Acquaotta, Fiorella; de'Donato, Francesca; Di Ruscio, Francesco; Sera, Francesco; Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel; Kan, Haidong; Orru, Hans; Kim, Ho; Holobaca, Iulian-Horia; Kyselý, Jan; Madureira, Joana; Schwartz, Joel; Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.; Katsouyanni, Klea; Hurtado Diaz, Magali; Ragettli, Martina S.; Hashizume, Masahiro; Pascal, Mathilde; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline; Valdés Ortega, Nicolás; Ryti, Niilo; Scovronick, Noah; Michelozzi, Paola; Matus Correa, Patricia; Goodman, Patrick; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Abrutzky, Rosana; Osorio, Samuel; Rao, Shilpa; Fratianni, Simona; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Colistro, Valentina; Huber, Veronika; Lee, Whanhee; Seposo, Xerxes; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue Leon; Bell, Michelle L.; Li, ShanshanBackground: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature–mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature–mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. Findings: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967–5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58–11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19–10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56–1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60–87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000–03 to 2016–19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by −0·51 percentage points (95% eCI −0·61 to −0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13–0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe. Interpretation: Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios. Funding: Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
- ItemMedical ethics in the Anthropocene: how are €100 billion of German physicians' pension funds invested?(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2019) Schulz, Christian M.; Ahrend, Klaus-Michael; Schneider, Gerhard; Hohendorf, Gerrit; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Busse, Reinhard[No abstract available]
- ItemReply to Burgess et al: Catastrophic climate risks are neglected, plausible, and safe to study(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2022) Kemp, Luke; Xu, Chi; Depledge, Joanna; Ebi, Kristie L.; Gibbins, Goodwin; Kohler, Timothy A.; Rockström, Johan; Scheffer, Marten; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Steffen, Will; Lenton, Timothy M.
- ItemA human development framework for CO 2 reductions(San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2011) Costa, L.; Rybski, D.; Kropp, J.P.Although developing countries are called to participate in CO 2 emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation, extrapolating the HDI, and using three population scenarios, the cumulative CO 2 emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained, we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world's population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular, 300 Gt of cumulative CO 2 emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20 % to 30 % of previously calculated CO 2 budgets limiting global warming to 2°C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO 2 reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2°C target after a particular development threshold is reached. For example, in each time step of five years, countries with an HDI of 0.85 would need to reduce their per capita emissions by approx. 17% and countries with an HDI of 0.9 by 33 %. Under this approach, global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100 Gt of CO 2. These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2°C.
- ItemWe need biosphere stewardship that protects carbon sinks and builds resilience(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2021) Rockström, Johan; Beringer, Tim; Hole, David; Griscom, Bronson; Mascia, Michael B.; Folke, Carl; Creutzig, Felix[no abstract available]