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Semitractability of optimal stopping problems via a weighted stochastic mesh algorithm
In this paper, we propose a Weighted Stochastic Mesh (WSM) algorithm for approximating the value of discrete- and continuous-time optimal stopping problems. In this context, we consider tractability of such problems via a useful notion of semitractability and the introduction of a tractability index for a particular numerical solution algorithm. It is shown that in the discrete-time case the WSM algorithm leads to semitractability of the corresponding optimal stopping problem in the sense that its complexity is bounded in order by (Formula presented.) with (Formula presented.) being the dimension of the underlying Markov chain. Furthermore, we study the WSM approach in the context of continuous-time optimal stopping problems and derive the corresponding complexity bounds. Although we cannot prove semitractability in this case, our bounds turn out to be the tightest ones among the complexity bounds known in the literature. We illustrate our theoretical findings by a numerical example. © 2020 Wiley Periodicals LLC
Sensitivities for Bermudan options by regression methods
In this article we propose several pathwise and finite difference based methods for calculating sensitivities of Bermudan options using regression methods and Monte Carlo simulation. These methods rely on conditional probabilistic representations which allows, in combination with a regression approach, an efficient simultaneous computation of sensitivities at all initial positions. Assuming that the price of a Bermudan option can be evaluated sufficiently accurate, we develop a method for constructing deltas based on least squares. We finally propose a testing procedure for assessing the performance of the developed methods.
Spectral estimation of the fractional order of a Lévy process
We consider the problem of estimating the fractional order of a Levy process from low frequency historical and options data. An estimation methodology is developed which allows us to treat both estimation and calibration problems in a unified way. The corresponding procedure consists of two steps: the estimation of a conditional characteristic function and the weighted least squares estimation of the fractional order in spectral domain. While the second step is identical for both calibration and estimation, the first one depends on the problem at hand. Minimax rates of convergence for the fractional order estimate are derived, the asymptotic normality is proved and a data-driven algorithm based on aggregation is proposed. The performance of the estimator in both estimation and calibration setups is illustrated by a simulation study
Regression on particle systems connected to mean-field SDEs with applications
In this note we consider the problem of using regression on interacting particles to compute conditional expectations for McKean-Vlasov SDEs. We prove general result on convergence of linear regression algorithms and establish the corresponding rates of convergence. Application to optimal stopping and variance reduction are considered.
Holomorphic transforms with application to affine processes
In a rather general setting of Itô-Lévy processes we study a class of transforms (Fourier for example) of the state variable of a process which are holomorphic in some disc around time zero in the complex plane. We show that such transforms are related to a system of analytic vectors for the generator of the process, and we state conditions which allow for holomorphic extension of these transforms into a strip which contains the positive real axis. Based on these extensions we develop a functional series expansion of these transforms in terms of the constituents of the generator. As application, we show that for multidimensional affine Itô-Lévy processes with state dependent jump part the Fourier transform is holomorphic in a time strip under some stationarity conditions, and give log-affine series representations for the transform.
True upper bounds for Bermudan products via non-nested Monte Carlo
We present a generic non-nested Monte Carlo procedure for computing true upper bounds for Bermudan products, given an approximation of the Snell envelope. The pleonastic ``true'' stresses that, by construction, the estimator is biased above the Snell envelope. The key idea is a regression estimator for the Doob martingale part of the approximative Snell envelope, which preserves the martingale property. The so constructed martingale may be employed for computing dual upper bounds without nested simulation. In general, this martingale can also be used as a control variate for simulation of conditional expectations. In this context, we develop a variance reduced version of the nested primal-dual estimator (Anderson & Broadie (2004)) and nested consumption based (Belomestny & Milstein (2006)) methods . Numerical experiments indicate the efficiency of the non-nested Monte Carlo algorithm and the variance reduced nested one.
Solving linear parabolic rough partial differential equations
We study linear rough partial differential equations in the setting of [Friz and Hairer, Springer, 2014, Chapter 12]. More precisely, we consider a linear parabolic partial differential equation driven by a deterministic rough path W of Hölder regularity with 1=3 < 1=2. Based on a stochastic representation of the solution of the rough partial differential equation, we propose a regression Monte Carlo algorithm for spatio-temporal approximation of the solution. We provide a full convergence analysis of the proposed approximation method which essentially relies on the new bounds for the higher order derivatives of the solution in space. Finally, a comprehensive simulation study showing the applicability of the proposed algorithm is presented.
From optimal martingales to randomized dual optimal stopping
In this article we study and classify optimal martingales in the dual formulation of optimal stopping problems. In this respect we distinguish between weakly optimal and surely optimal martingales. It is shown that the family of weakly optimal and surely optimal martingales may be quite large. On the other hand it is shown that the Doob-martingale, that is, the martingale part of the Snell envelope, is in a certain sense the most robust surely optimal martingale under random perturbations. This new insight leads to a novel randomized dual martingale minimization algorithm that does`nt require nested simulation. As a main feature, in a possibly large family of optimal martingales the algorithm efficiently selects a martingale that is as close as possible to the Doob martingale. As a result, one obtains the dual upper bound for the optimal stopping problem with low variance.
Reinforced optimal control
Least squares Monte Carlo methods are a popular numerical approximation method for solving stochastic control problems. Based on dynamic programming, their key feature is the approximation of the conditional expectation of future rewards by linear least squares regression. Hence, the choice of basis functions is crucial for the accuracy of the method. Earlier work by some of us [Belomestny, Schoenmakers, Spokoiny, Zharkynbay, Commun. Math. Sci., 18(1):109?121, 2020] proposes to reinforce the basis functions in the case of optimal stopping problems by already computed value functions for later times, thereby considerably improving the accuracy with limited additional computational cost. We extend the reinforced regression method to a general class of stochastic control problems, while considerably improving the method?s efficiency, as demonstrated by substantial numerical examples as well as theoretical analysis.
Optimal stopping via pathwise dual empirical maximisation
The optimal stopping problem arising in the pricing of American options can be tackled by the so called dual martingale approach. In this approach, a dual problem is formulated over the space of martingales. A feasible solution of the dual problem yields an upper bound for the solution of the original primal problem. In practice, the optimization is performed over a finite-dimensional subspace of martingales. A sample of paths of the underlying stochastic process is produced by a Monte-Carlo simulation, and the expectation is replaced by the empirical mean. As a rule the resulting optimization problem, which can be written as a linear program, yields a martingale such that the variance of the obtained estimator can be large. In order to decrease this variance, a penalizing term can be added to the objective function of the path-wise optimization problem. In this paper, we provide a rigorous analysis of the optimization problems obtained by adding different penalty functions. In particular, a convergence analysis implies that it is better to minimize the empirical maximum instead of the empirical mean. Numerical simulations confirm the variance reduction effect of the new approach.