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Now showing 1 - 10 of 22
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    Sample-based approach can outperform the classical dynamical analysis - Experimental confirmation of the basin stability method
    (London : Nature Publishing Group, 2017) Brzeski, P.; Wojewoda, J.; Kapitaniak, T.; Kurths, J.; Perlikowski, P.
    In this paper we show the first broad experimental confirmation of the basin stability approach. The basin stability is one of the sample-based approach methods for analysis of the complex, multidimensional dynamical systems. We show that investigated method is a reliable tool for the analysis of dynamical systems and we prove that it has a significant advantages which make it appropriate for many applications in which classical analysis methods are difficult to apply. We study theoretically and experimentally the dynamics of a forced double pendulum. We examine the ranges of stability for nine different solutions of the system in a two parameter space, namely the amplitude and the frequency of excitation. We apply the path-following and the extended basin stability methods (Brzeski et al., Meccanica 51(11), 2016) and we verify obtained theoretical results in experimental investigations. Comparison of the presented results show that the sample-based approach offers comparable precision to the classical method of analysis. However, it is much simpler to apply and can be used despite the type of dynamical system and its dimensions. Moreover, the sample-based approach has some unique advantages and can be applied without the precise knowledge of parameter values.
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    When optimization for governing human-environment tipping elements is neither sustainable nor safe
    (London : Nature Publishing Group, 2018) Barfuss, W.; Donges, J.F.; Lade, S.J.; Kurths, J.
    Optimizing economic welfare in environmental governance has been criticized for delivering short-term gains at the expense of long-term environmental degradation. Different from economic optimization, the concepts of sustainability and the more recent safe operating space have been used to derive policies in environmental governance. However, a formal comparison between these three policy paradigms is still missing, leaving policy makers uncertain which paradigm to apply. Here, we develop a better understanding of their interrelationships, using a stylized model of human-environment tipping elements. We find that no paradigm guarantees fulfilling requirements imposed by another paradigm and derive simple heuristics for the conditions under which these trade-offs occur. We show that the absence of such a master paradigm is of special relevance for governing real-world tipping systems such as climate, fisheries, and farming, which may reside in a parameter regime where economic optimization is neither sustainable nor safe.
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    A regime shift in the Sun-Climate connection with the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly
    (London : Nature Publishing Group, 2017) Smirnov, D.A.; Breitenbach, S.F.M.; Feulner, G.; Lechleitner, F.A.; Prufer, K.M.; Baldini, J.U.L.; Marwan, N.; Kurths, J.
    Understanding the influence of changes in solar activity on Earth's climate and distinguishing it from other forcings, such as volcanic activity, remains a major challenge for palaeoclimatology. This problem is best approached by investigating how these variables influenced past climate conditions as recorded in high precision paleoclimate archives. In particular, determining if the climate system response to these forcings changes through time is critical. Here we use the Wiener-Granger causality approach along with well-established cross-correlation analysis to investigate the causal relationship between solar activity, volcanic forcing, and climate as reflected in well-established Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) rainfall proxy records from Yok Balum Cave, southern Belize. Our analysis reveals a consistent influence of volcanic activity on regional Central American climate over the last two millennia. However, the coupling between solar variability and local climate varied with time, with a regime shift around 1000-1300 CE after which the solar-climate coupling weakened considerably.
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    Metastability for discontinuous dynamical systems under Lévy noise: Case study on Amazonian Vegetation
    (London : Nature Publishing Group, 2017) Serdukova, L.; Zheng, Y.; Duan, J.; Kurths, J.
    For the tipping elements in the Earth's climate system, the most important issue to address is how stable is the desirable state against random perturbations. Extreme biotic and climatic events pose severe hazards to tropical rainforests. Their local effects are extremely stochastic and difficult to measure. Moreover, the direction and intensity of the response of forest trees to such perturbations are unknown, especially given the lack of efficient dynamical vegetation models to evaluate forest tree cover changes over time. In this study, we consider randomness in the mathematical modelling of forest trees by incorporating uncertainty through a stochastic differential equation. According to field-based evidence, the interactions between fires and droughts are a more direct mechanism that may describe sudden forest degradation in the south-eastern Amazon. In modeling the Amazonian vegetation system, we include symmetric α-stable Lévy perturbations. We report results of stability analysis of the metastable fertile forest state. We conclude that even a very slight threat to the forest state stability represents Ĺevy noise with large jumps of low intensity, that can be interpreted as a fire occurring in a non-drought year. During years of severe drought, high-intensity fires significantly accelerate the transition between a forest and savanna state.
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    Restoration of rhythmicity in diffusively coupled dynamical networks
    (London : Nature Publishing Group, 2015) Zou, W.; Senthilkumar, D.V.; Nagao, R.; Kiss, I.Z.; Tang, Y.; Koseska, A.; Duan, J.; Kurths, J.
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    Transitions in a genetic transcriptional regulatory system under Lévy motion
    (London : Nature Publishing Group, 2016) Zheng, Y.; Serdukova, L.; Duan, J.; Kurths, J.
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    Basin stability in delayed dynamics
    (London : Nature Publishing Group, 2016) Leng, S.; Lin, W.; Kurths, J.
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    Impact of climate change on larch budmoth cyclic outbreaks
    (London : Nature Publishing Group, 2016) Iyengar, S.V.; Balakrishnan, J.; Kurths, J.
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    Experimental Study of the Triplet Synchronization of Coupled Nonidentical Mechanical Metronomes
    (London : Nature Publishing Group, 2015) Jia, J.; Song, Z.; Liu, W.; Kurths, J.; Xiao, J.
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    Robustness of interrelated traffic networks to cascading failures
    (London : Nature Publishing Group, 2014) Su, Z.; Li, L.; Peng, H.; Kurths, J.; Xiao, J.; Yang, Y.
    The vulnerability to real-life networks against small initial attacks has been one of outstanding challenges in the study of interrelated networks. We study cascading failures in two interrelated networks S and B composed from dependency chains and connectivity links respectively. This work proposes a realistic model for cascading failures based on the redistribution of traffic flow. We study the Barabási-Albert networks (BA) and Erd's-Rényi graphs (ER) with such structure, and found that the efficiency sharply decreases with increasing percentages of the dependency nodes for removing a node randomly. Furthermore, we study the robustness of interrelated traffic networks, especially the subway and bus network in Beijing. By analyzing different attacking strategies, we uncover that the efficiency of the city traffic system has a non-equilibrium phase transition at low capacity of the networks. This explains why the pressure of the traffic overload is relaxed by singly increasing the number of small buses during rush hours. We also found that the increment of some buses may release traffic jam caused by removing a node of the bus network randomly if the damage is limited. However, the efficiencies to transfer people flow will sharper increase when the capacity of the subway network αS > α0.