2015, Zou, W., Senthilkumar, D.V., Nagao, R., Kiss, I.Z., Tang, Y., Koseska, A., Duan, J., Kurths, J.

2017, Boers, N., Marwan, N., Barbosa, H.M.J., Kurths, J.

The Amazon rainforest has been proposed as a tipping element of the earth system, with the possibility of a dieback of the entire ecosystem due to deforestation only of parts of the rainforest. Possible physical mechanisms behind such a transition are still subject to ongoing debates. Here, we use a specifically designed model to analyse the nonlinear couplings between the Amazon rainforest and the atmospheric moisture transport from the Atlantic to the South American continent. These couplings are associated with a westward cascade of precipitation and evapotranspiration across the Amazon. We investigate impacts of deforestation on the South American monsoonal circulation with particular focus on a previously neglected positive feedback related to condensational latent heating over the rainforest, which strongly enhances atmospheric moisture inflow from the Atlantic. Our results indicate the existence of a tipping point. In our model setup, crossing the tipping point causes precipitation reductions of up to 40% in non-deforested parts of the western Amazon and regions further downstream. The responsible mechanism is the breakdown of the aforementioned feedback, which occurs when deforestation reduces transpiration to a point where the available atmospheric moisture does not suffice anymore to release the latent heat needed to maintain the feedback.

2015, Mitra, C., Kurths, J., Donner, R.V.

2015, Goswami, B., Shekatkar, S.M., Rheinwalt, A., Ambika, G., Kurths, J.

2016, Leng, S., Lin, W., Kurths, J.