2015, Belomestny, Denis, Mai, Hilmar, Schoenmakers, John

In this work we derive an inversion formula for the Laplace transform of a density observed on a curve in the complex domain, which generalizes the well known Post-Widder formula. We establish convergence of our inversion method and derive the corresponding convergence rates for the case of a Laplace transform of a smooth density. As an application we consider the problem of statistical inference for variance-mean mixture models.We construct a nonparametric estimator for the mixing density based on the generalized Post-Widder formula, derive bounds for its root mean square error and give a brief numerical example.

2013, Diehl, Joscha, Friz, Peter K., Mai, Hilmar

We consider the estimation problem of an unknown drift parameter within classes of non-degenerate diffusion processes. The Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) is analyzed with regard to its pathwise stability properties and robustness towards misspecification in volatility and even the very nature of noise. We construct a version of the estimator based on rough integrals (in the sense of T. Lyons) and present strong evidence that this construction resolves a number of stability issues inherent to the standard MLEs.

2013, Bayer, Christian, Mai, Hilmar, Schoenmakers, John G.M.

We develop an EM algorithm for estimating parameters that determine the dynamics of a discrete time Markov chain evolving through a certain measurable state space. As a key tool for the construction of the EM method we develop forward-reverse representations for Markov chains conditioned on a certain terminal state. These representations may be considered as an extension of the earlier work [1] on conditional diffusions. We present several experiments and consider the convergence of the new EM algorithm.

2012, Mai, Hilmar

We consider the problem of efficient estimation of the drift parameter of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type process driven by a Lévy process when high-frequency observations are given. The estimator is constructed from the time-continuous likelihood function that leads to an explicit maximum likelihood estimator and requires knowledge of the continuous martingale part. We use a thresholding technique to approximate the continuous part of the process. Under suitable conditions we prove asymptotic normality and efficiency in the Hájek-Le Cam sense for the resulting drift estimator. To obtain these results we prove an estimate for the Markov generator of a pure jump Lévy process. Finally, we investigate the finite sample behavior of the method and compare our approach to least squares estimation.