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- ItemParameter estimation in time series analysis(Berlin : Weierstraß-Institut für Angewandte Analysis und Stochastik, 2009) Spokoiny, VladimirThe paper offers a novel unified approach to studying the accuracy of parameter estimation for a time series. Important features of the approach are: (1) The underlying model is not assumed to be parametric. (2) The imposed conditions on the model are very mild and can be easily checked in specific applications. (3) The considered time series need not to be ergodic or stationary. The approach is equally applicable to ergodic, unit root and explosive cases. (4) The parameter set can be unbounded and non-compact. (5) No conditions on parameter identifiability are required. (6) The established risk bounds are nonasymptotic and valid for large, moderate and small samples. (7) The results describe confidence and concentration sets rather than the accuracy of point estimation. The whole approach can be viewed as complementary to the classical one based on the asymptotic expansion of the log-likelihood. In particular, it claims a consistency of the considered estimate in a rather general sense, which usually is assumed to be fulfilled in the asymptotic analysis. In standard situations under ergodicity conditions, the usual rate results can be easily obtained as corollaries from the established risk bounds. The approach and the results are illustrated on a number of popular time series models including autoregressive, Generalized Linear time series, ARCH and GARCH models and meadian/quantile regression.
- ItemRobust risk management : accounting for nonstationarity and heavy tails(Berlin : Weierstraß-Institut für Angewandte Analysis und Stochastik, 2007) Chen, Ying; Spokoiny, VladimirIn the ideal Black-Scholes world, financial time series are assumed 1) stationary (time homogeneous) or can be modelled globally by a stationary process and 2) having conditionally normal distribution given the past. These two assumptions have been widely-used in many methods such as the RiskMetrics, one risk management method considered as industry standard. However these assumptions are unrealistic. The primary aim of the paper is to account for nonstationarity and heavy tails in time series by presenting a local exponential smoothing approach, by which the smoothing parameter is adaptively selected at every time point and the heavy-tailedness of the process is considered. A complete theory addresses both issues. In our study, we demonstrate the implementation of the proposed method in volatility estimation and risk management given simulated and real data. Numerical results show the proposed method delivers accurate and sensitive estimates.
- ItemEffiziente Methoden zur Bestimmung von Risikomaßen : Schlussbericht ; Projekt des BMBF-Förderprogramm "Neue Mathematische Verfahren in Industrie und Dienstleistungen"(Berlin : Weierstraß-Institut für Angewandte Analysis und Stochastik, 2004) Schoenmakers, John; Spokoiny, Vladimir; Reiß, Oliver; Zacherias-Langhans, Johan-Hinrich[no abstract available]
- ItemReinforced optimal control(Berlin : Weierstraß-Institut für Angewandte Analysis und Stochastik, 2020) Bayer, Christian; Belomestny, Denis; Hager, Paul; Pigato, Paolo; Schoenmakers, John G. M.; Spokoiny, VladimirLeast squares Monte Carlo methods are a popular numerical approximation method for solving stochastic control problems. Based on dynamic programming, their key feature is the approximation of the conditional expectation of future rewards by linear least squares regression. Hence, the choice of basis functions is crucial for the accuracy of the method. Earlier work by some of us [Belomestny, Schoenmakers, Spokoiny, Zharkynbay, Commun. Math. Sci., 18(1):109?121, 2020] proposes to reinforce the basis functions in the case of optimal stopping problems by already computed value functions for later times, thereby considerably improving the accuracy with limited additional computational cost. We extend the reinforced regression method to a general class of stochastic control problems, while considerably improving the method?s efficiency, as demonstrated by substantial numerical examples as well as theoretical analysis.
- ItemForward and reverse representations for Markov chains(Berlin : Weierstraß-Institut für Angewandte Analysis und Stochastik, 2006) Milstein, Grigori N.; Schoenmakers, John G.M.; Spokoiny, VladimirIn this paper we carry over the concept of reverse probabilistic representations developed in Milstein, Schoenmakers, Spokoiny (2004) for diffusion processes, to discrete time Markov chains. We outline the construction of reverse chains in several situations and apply this to processes which are connected with jump-diffusion models and finite state Markov chains. By combining forward and reverse representations we then construct transition density estimators for chains which have root-N accuracy in any dimension and consider some applications.
- ItemTwo convergence results for an alternation maximization procedure(Berlin : Weierstraß-Institut für Angewandte Analysis und Stochastik, 2015) Andresen, Andreas; Spokoiny, VladimirAndresen and Spokoiny's (2013) "critical dimension in semiparametric estimation" provide a technique for the finite sample analysis of profile M-estimators. This paper uses very similar ideas to derive two convergence results for the alternating procedure to approximate the maximizer of random functionals such as the realized log likelihood in MLE estimation. We manage to show that the sequence attains the same deviation properties as shown for the profile M-estimator in Andresen and Spokoiny (2013), i.e. a finite sample Wilks and Fisher theorem. Further under slightly stronger smoothness constraints on the random functional we can show nearly linear convergence to the global maximizer if the starting point for the procedure is well chosen.
- ItemCritical dimension in profile semiparametric estimation(Berlin : Weierstraß-Institut für Angewandte Analysis und Stochastik, 2013) Andresen, Andreas; Spokoiny, VladimirThis paper revisits the classical inference results for profile quasi maximum likelihood estimators (profile MLE) in the semiparametric estimation problem.We mainly focus on two prominent theorems: the Wilks phenomenon and Fisher expansion for the profile MLE are stated in a new fashion allowing finite samples and model misspecification. The method of study is also essentially different from the usual analysis of the semiparametric problem based on the notion of the hardest parametric submodel. Instead we apply the local bracketing and the upper function devices from Spokoiny (2012). This novel approach particularly allows to address the important issue of the effective target and nuisance dimension and it does not involve any pilot estimator of the target parameter. The obtained nonasymptotic results are surprisingly sharp and yield the classical asymptotic statements including the asymptotic normality and efficiency of the profile MLE. The general results are specified to the important special cases of an i.i.d. sample.
- ItemAdaptive manifold clustering(Berlin : Weierstraß-Institut für Angewandte Analysis und Stochastik, 2020) Besold, Franz; Spokoiny, VladimirClustering methods seek to partition data such that elements are more similar to elements in the same cluster than to elements in different clusters. The main challenge in this task is the lack of a unified definition of a cluster, especially for high dimensional data. Different methods and approaches have been proposed to address this problem. This paper continues the study originated by [6] where a novel approach to adaptive nonparametric clustering called Adaptive Weights Clustering (AWC) was offered. The method allows analyzing high-dimensional data with an unknown number of unbalanced clusters of arbitrary shape under very weak modeling as-sumptions. The procedure demonstrates a state-of-the-art performance and is very efficient even for large data dimension D. However, the theoretical study in [6] is very limited and did not re-ally address the question of efficiency. This paper makes a significant step in understanding the remarkable performance of the AWC procedure, particularly in high dimension. The approach is based on combining the ideas of adaptive clustering and manifold learning. The manifold hypoth-esis means that high dimensional data can be well approximated by a d-dimensional manifold for small d helping to overcome the curse of dimensionality problem and to get sharp bounds on the cluster separation which only depend on the intrinsic dimension d. We also address the problem of parameter tuning. Our general theoretical results are illustrated by some numerical experiments.
- ItemLocally time homogeneous time series modelling(Berlin : Weierstraß-Institut für Angewandte Analysis und Stochastik, 2008) Elagin, Mstislav; Spokoiny, VladimirIn this paper three locally adaptive estimation methods are applied to the problems of variance forecasting, value-at-risk analysis and volatility estimation within the context of nonstationary financial time series. A general procedure for the computation of critical values is given. Numerical results exhibit a very reasonable performance of the methods.
- ItemStopping rules for accelerated gradient methods with additive noise in gradient(Berlin : Weierstraß-Institut für Angewandte Analysis und Stochastik, 2021) Vasin, Artem; Gasnikov, Alexander; Spokoiny, VladimirIn this article, we investigate an accelerated first-order method, namely, the method of similar triangles, which is optimal in the class of convex (strongly convex) problems with a Lipschitz gradient. The paper considers a model of additive noise in a gradient and a Euclidean prox- structure for not necessarily bounded sets. Convergence estimates are obtained in the case of strong convexity and its absence, and a stopping criterion is proposed for not strongly convex problems.