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- ItemDIVA: An iterative method for building modular integrated models(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2005) Hinkel, J.Integrated modelling of global environmental change impacts faces the challenge that knowledge from the domains of Natural and Social Science must be integrated. This is complicated by often incompatible terminology and the fact that the interactions between subsystems are usually not fully understood at the start of the project. While a modular modelling approach is necessary to address these challenges, it is not sufficient. The remaining question is how the modelled system shall be cut down into modules. While no generic answer can be given to this question, communication tools can be provided to support the process of modularisation and integration. Along those lines of thought a method for building modular integrated models was developed within the EU project DINAS-COAST and applied to construct a first model, which assesses the vulnerability of the world’s coasts to climate change and sea-level-rise. The method focuses on the development of a common language and offers domain experts an intuitive interface to code their knowledge in form of modules. However, instead of rigorously defining interfaces between the subsystems at the project’s beginning, an iterative model development process is defined and tools to facilitate communication and collaboration are provided. This flexible approach has the advantage that increased understanding about subsystem interactions, gained during the project’s lifetime, can immediately be reflected in the model.
- ItemAgents, Bayes, and Climatic Risks - a modular modelling approach(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2005) Haas, A.; Jaeger, C.When insurance firms, energy companies, governments, NGOs, and other agents strive to manage climatic risks, it is by no way clear what the aggregate outcome should and will be. As a framework for investigating this subject, we present the LAGOM model family. It is based on modules depicting learning social agents. For managing climate risks, our agents use second order probabilities and update them by means of a Bayesian mechanism while differing in priors and risk aversion. The interactions between these modules and the aggregate outcomes of their actions are implemented using further modules. The software system is implemented as a series of parallel processes using the CIAMn approach. It is possible to couple modules irrespective of the language they are written in, the operating system under which they are run, and the physical location of the machine
- ItemIntegrated analysis of water quality in a mesoscale lowland basin(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2005) Habeck, A.; Krysanova, V.; Hattermann, F.This article describes a modelling study on nitrogen transport from diffuse sources in the Nuthe catchment, representing a typical lowland region in the north-eastern Germany. Building on a hydrological validation performed in advance using the ecohydrological model SWIM, the nitrogen flows were simulated over a 20-year period (1981-2000). The relatively good quality of the input data, particularly for the years from 1993 to 2000, enabled the nitrogen flows to be reproduced sufficiently well, although modelling nutrient flows is always associated with a great deal of uncertainty. Subsequently, scenario calculations were carried out in order to investigate how nitrogen transport from the catchment could be further reduced. The selected scenario results with the greatest reduction of nitrogen washoff will briefly be presented in the paper.
- ItemThe contribution of sulphuric acid to atmospheric particle formation and growth: A comparison between boundary layers in Northern and Central Europe(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2005) Fiedler, V.; Dal Maso, M.; Boy, M.; Aufmhoff, H.; Hoffmann, J.; Schuck, T.; Birmili, W.; Hanke, M.; Uecker, J.; Arnold, F.; Kulmala, M.Atmospheric gaseous sulphuric acid was measured and its influence on particle formation and growth was investigated building on aerosol data. The measurements were part of the EU-project QUEST and took place at two different measurement sites in Northern and Central Europe (Hyytiälä, Finland, March-April 2003 and Heidelberg, Germany, March-April 2004). From a comprehensive data set including sulphuric acid, particle number size distributions and meteorological data, particle growth rates, particle formation rates and source rates of condensable vapors were inferred. Growth rates were determined in two different ways, from particle size distributions as well as from a so-called timeshift analysis. Moreover, correlations between sulphuric acid and particle number concentration between 3 and 6 nm were examined and the influence of air masses of different origin was investigated. Measured maximum concentrations of sulphuric acid were in the range from 1x106 to 16x106cm-3. The gaseous sulphuric acid lifetime with respect to condensation on aerosol particles ranged from 2 to 33min in Hyytiälä and from 0.5 to 8 min in Heidelberg. Most calculated values (growth rates, formation rates, vapor source rates) were considerably higher in Central Europe (Heidelberg), due to the more polluted air and higher preexistent aerosol concentrations. Close correlations between H2SO4 and nucleation mode particles (size range: 3-6 nm) were found on most days at both sites. The percentage contribution of sulphuric acid to particle growth was below 10% at both places and to initial growth below 20%. An air mass analysis indicated that at Heidelberg new particles were formed predominantly in air advected from southwesterly directions.
- ItemTemperature sensitivity of decomposition in relation to soil organic matter pools: Critique and outlook(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2005) Reichstein, M.; Kätterer, T.; Andrén, O.; Ciais, P.; Schulze, E.-D.; Cramer, W.; Papale, D.; Valentini, R.Knorr et al. (2005) concluded that soil organic carbon pools with longer turnover times are more sensitive to temperature. We show that this conclusion is equivocal, largely dependent on their specific selection of data and does not persist when the data set of Kätterer et al. (1998) is analysed in a more appropriate way. Further, we analyse how statistical properties of the model parameters may interfere with correlative analyses that relate the Q 10 of soil respiration with the basal rate, where the latter is taken as a proxy for soil organic matter quality. We demonstrate that negative parameter correlations between Qio-values and base respiration rates are statistically expected and not necessarily provide evidence for a higher temperature sensitivity of low quality soil organic matter. Consequently, we propose it is premature to conclude that stable soil carbon is more sensitive to temperature than labile carbon.
- ItemHow tight are the limits to land and water use? - Combined impacts of food demand and climate change(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2005) Lotze-Campen, H.; Lucht, W.; Müller, C.; Bondeau, A.; Smith, P.In the coming decades, world agricultural systems will face serious transitions. Population growth, income and lifestyle changes will lead to considerable increases in food demand. Moreover, a rising demand for renewable energy and biodiversity protection may restrict the area available for food production. On the other hand, global climate change will affect production conditions, for better or worse depending on regional conditions. In order to simulate these combined effects consistently and in a spatially explicit way, we have linked the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) with a "Management model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment" (MAgPIE). LPJ represents the global biosphere with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree. MAgPIE covers the most important agricultural crop and livestock production types. A prototype has been developed for one sample region. In the next stage this will be expanded to several economically relevant regions on a global scale, including international trade. The two models are coupled through a layer of productivity zones. In the paper we present the modelling approach, develop first joint scenarios and discuss selected results from the coupled modelling system.
- ItemRegional climate model simulations as input for hydrological applications: Evaluation of uncertainties(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2005) Kotlarski, S.; Block, A.; Böhm, U.; Jacob, D.; Keuler, K.; Knoche, R.; Rechid, D.; Walter, A.The ERA15 Reanalysis (1979-1993) has been dynamically downscaled over Central Europe using 4 different regional climate models. The regional simulations were analysed with respect to 2m temperature and total precipitation, the main input parameters for hydrological applications. Model results were validated against three reference data sets (ERA15, CRU, DWD) and uncertainty ranges were derived. For mean annual 2 m temperature over Germany, the simulation bias lies between -1.1°C and +0.9°C depending on the combination of model and reference data set. The bias of mean annual precipitation varies between -31 and +108 mm/year. Differences between RCM results are of the same magnitude as differences between the reference data sets.
- ItemProdukthaftung in der Apotheke(Stuttgart : Deutscher Apotheker Verlag, 2005) Diebold, Steffen M.Stellt ein Apotheker Arzneimittel, Medizinprodukte oder andere apothekenübliche Waren (z.B. Kosmetika oder Mixturen nach Angaben von Heilpraktikern, Homöopathen oder Anthroposophen) in seiner Offizin selbst her, so haftet er (grundsätzlich) einem dadurch ggf. geschädigten Kunden (auch) nach den Vorschriften des Produkthaftungsgesetzes. Diese Haftung besteht unabhängig vom eigenen Verschulden. Sie greift auch bei der Einfuhr von Arzneimitteln aus Staaten, die nicht zum Europäischen Wirtschaftsraum gehören, sowie bei Import und Abgabe von aus Drittländern eingeführten und im Geltungsbereich des Arzneimittelgesetzes (AMG) nicht zugelassenen Fertigarzneimitteln nach § 73 (3) AMG.
- ItemPyrimidine acyclo-C-nucleosides by ring transformations of 2-formyl-L-arabinal(Basel : MDPI, 2005) Bari, A.; Feist, H.; Michalik, M.; Peseke, K.The protected 2-formyl-L-arabinal 2 reacted with thiourea and cyanamide in the presence of sodium hydride to afford via ring transformations the 5-[1R,2S-1,2-bis(benzyloxy)-3-hydroxypropyl]-1,2-dihydropyrimidines 3 and 4, respectively. Similarly, treatment of 2 with 3-amino-2H-1,2,4-triazole yielded 6-[1R,25-1,2-bis(benzyloxy)-3-hydroxypropyl][1,2,4]-triazolo[1,5-a]pyrimidine(5) .
- ItemCalculations on the dimensioning of plunger cell and feeder head(Offenbach : Verlag der Deutschen Glastechnischen Gesellschaft, 2005) Reeßing, Friedrich; Schötz, Eberhard[no abstract available]