24 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 10 of 24
- ItemReply to Bhowmik et al.: Democratic climate action and studying extreme climate risks are not in tension(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2022) Kemp, Luke; Xu, Chi; Depledge, Joanna; Ebi, Kristie L.; Gibbins, Goodwin; Kohler, Timothy A.; Rockström, Johan; Scheffer, Marten; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Steffen, Will; Lenton, Timothy M.[no abstract available]
- ItemMarine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war(2020) Scherrer, Kim J.N.; Harrison, Cheryl S.; Heneghan, Ryan F.; Galbraith, Eric; Bardeen, Charles G.; Coupe, Joshua; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Luna, August; Robock, Alan; Stevens, Jessica; Stevenson, Samantha; Toon, Owen B.; Xia, LiliNuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong prewar fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 ± 3% and 29 ± 7% after a US-Russia war under business-as-usual fishing-similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1 to 2 y) catch by at most ∼30% followed by precipitous declines of up to ∼70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective prewar management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace ∼43 ± 35% of today's global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management.
- ItemReply to Ruhl and Craig: Assessing and governing extreme climate risks needs to be legitimate and democratic(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2022) Kemp, Luke; Xu, Chi; Depledge, Joanna; Ebi, Kristie L.; Gibbins, Goodwin; Kohler, Timothy A.; Rockström, Johan; Scheffer, Marten; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Steffen, Will; Lenton, Timothy M.[No abstract available]
- ItemHydrothermal carbonization as an alternative sanitation technology: Process optimization and development of low-cost reactor(Brussels : European Commission, 2022) Chung, Jae Wook; Gerner, Gabriel; Ovsyannikova, Ekaterina; Treichler, Alexander; Baier, Urs; Libra, Judy; Krebs, RolfBackground: The provision of safe sanitation services is essential for human well-being and environmental integrity, but it is often lacking in less developed communities with insufficient financial and technical resources. Hydrothermal carbonization (HTC) has been suggested as an alternative sanitation technology, producing value-added products from faecal waste. We evaluated the HTC technology for raw human waste treatment in terms of resource recovery. In addition, we constructed and tested a low-cost HTC reactor for its technical feasibility. Methods: Raw human faeces were hydrothermally treated in a mild severity range (≤ 200 °C and ≤ 1 hr). The total energy recovery was analysed from the energy input, higher heating value (HHV) of hydrochar and biomethane potential of process water. The nutrient contents were recovered through struvite precipitation employing process water and acid leachate from hydrochar ash. A bench-scale low-cost reactor (BLR) was developed using widely available materials and tested for human faeces treatment. Results: The hydrochar had HHVs (23.2 - 25.2 MJ/kg) comparable to bituminous coal. The calorific value of hydrochar accounted for more than 90% of the total energy recovery. Around 78% of phosphorus in feedstock was retained in hydrochar ash, while 15% was in process water. 72% of the initial phosphorus can be recovered as struvite when deficient Mg and NH 4 are supplemented. The experiments with BLR showed stable operation for faecal waste treatment with an energy efficiency comparable to a commercial reactor system. Conclusions: This research presents a proof of concept for the hydrothermal treatment of faecal waste as an alternative sanitation technology, by providing a quantitative evaluation of the resource recovery of energy and nutrients. The experiments with the BLR demonstrate the technical feasibility of the low-cost reactor and support its further development on a larger scale to reach practical implementation.
- ItemSocial tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth's climate by 2050(2020) Otto, Ilona M.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Cremades, Roger; Bhowmik, Avit; Hewitt, Richard J.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rockström, Johan; Allerberger, Franziska; McCaffrey, Mark; Doe, Sylvanus S.P.; Lenferna, Alex; Morán, Nerea; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schellnhuber, Hans JoachimSafely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 y. Accelerated technological progress and policy implementations are required to deliver emissions reductions at rates sufficiently fast to avoid crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth's climate system. Here, we discuss and evaluate the potential of social tipping interventions (STIs) that can activate contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behaviors, social norms, and structural reorganization within their functional domains that we refer to as social tipping elements (STEs). STEs are subdomains of the planetary socioeconomic system where the required disruptive change may take place and lead to a sufficiently fast reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results are based on online expert elicitation, a subsequent expert workshop, and a literature review. The STIs that could trigger the tipping of STE subsystems include 1) removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation (STE1, energy production and storage systems), 2) building carbon-neutral cities (STE2, human settlements), 3) divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels (STE3, financial markets), 4) revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels (STE4, norms and value systems), 5) strengthening climate education and engagement (STE5, education system), and 6) disclosing information on greenhouse gas emissions (STE6, information feedbacks). Our research reveals important areas of focus for larger-scale empirical and modeling efforts to better understand the potentials of harnessing social tipping dynamics for climate change mitigation.
- ItemLaser spectroscopic technique for direct identification of a single virus I: FASTER CARS(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2020) Deckert, Volker; Deckert-Gaudig, Tanja; Cialla-May, Dana; Popp, Jürgen; Zell, Roland; Deinhard-Emmer, Stefanie; Sokolov, Alexei V.; Yi, Zhenhuan; Scully, Marlan O.From the famous 1918 H1N1 influenza to the present COVID-19 pandemic, the need for improved viral detection techniques is all too apparent. The aim of the present paper is to show that identification of individual virus particles in clinical sample materials quickly and reliably is near at hand. First of all, our team has developed techniques for identification of virions based on a modular atomic force microscopy (AFM). Furthermore, femtosecond adaptive spectroscopic techniques with enhanced resolution via coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (FASTER CARS) using tip-enhanced techniques markedly improves the sensitivity [M. O. Scully, et al, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 99, 10994-11001 (2002)].
- ItemStewardship of global collective behavior(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2021) Bak-Coleman, Joseph B.; Alfano, Mark; Barfuss, Wolfram; Bergstrom, Carl T.; Centeno, Miguel A.; Couzin, Iain D.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Galesic, Mirta; Gersick, Andrew S.; Jacquet, Jennifer; Kao, Albert B.; Moran, Rachel E.; Romanczuk, Pawel; Rubenstein, Daniel I.; Tombak, Kaia J.; Van Bavel, Jay J.; Weber, Elke U.Collective behavior provides a framework for understanding how the actions and properties of groups emerge from the way individuals generate and share information. In humans, information flows were initially shaped by natural selection yet are increasingly structured by emerging communication technologies. Our larger, more complex social networks now transfer high-fidelity information over vast distances at low cost. The digital age and the rise of social media have accelerated changes to our social systems, with poorly understood functional consequences. This gap in our knowledge represents a principal challenge to scientific progress, democracy, and actions to address global crises. We argue that the study of collective behavior must rise to a “crisis discipline” just as medicine, conservation, and climate science have, with a focus on providing actionable insight to policymakers and regulators for the stewardship of social systems.
- ItemThis looks More Like that: Enhancing Self-Explaining Models by prototypical relevance propagation: This Looks More Like That(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2022) Gautam, Srishti; Höhne, Marina M.-C.; Hansen, Stine; Jenssen, Robert; Kampffmeyer, MichaelCurrent machine learning models have shown high efficiency in solving a wide variety of real-world problems. However, their black box character poses a major challenge for the comprehensibility and traceability of the underlying decision-making strategies. As a remedy, numerous post-hoc and self-explanation methods have been developed to interpret the models’ behavior. Those methods, in addition, enable the identification of artifacts that, inherent in the training data, can be erroneously learned by the model as class-relevant features. In this work, we provide a detailed case study of a representative for the state-of-the-art self-explaining network, ProtoPNet, in the presence of a spectrum of artifacts. Accordingly, we identify the main drawbacks of ProtoPNet, especially its coarse and spatially imprecise explanations. We address these limitations by introducing Prototypical Relevance Propagation (PRP), a novel method for generating more precise model-aware explanations. Furthermore, in order to obtain a clean, artifact-free dataset, we propose to use multi-view clustering strategies for segregating the artifact images using the PRP explanations, thereby suppressing the potential artifact learning in the models.
- ItemReply to Smith et al.: Social tipping dynamics in a world constrained by conflicting interests(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2020) Otto, Ilona M.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim[No abstract available]
- ItemA polyyne toxin produced by an antagonistic bacterium blinds and lyses a Chlamydomonad alga(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2021) Hotter, Vivien; Zopf, David; Kim, Hak Joong; Silge, Anja; Schmitt, Michael; Aiyar, Prasad; Fleck, Johanna; Matthäus, Christian; Hniopek, Julian; Yan, Qing; Loper, Joyce; Sasso, Severin; Hertweck, Christian; Popp, Jürgen; Mittag, MariaAlgae are key contributors to global carbon fixation and form the basis of many food webs. In nature, their growth is often supported or suppressed by microorganisms. The bacterium Pseudomonas protegens Pf-5 arrests the growth of the green unicellular alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, deflagellates the alga by the cyclic lipopeptide orfamide A, and alters its morphology [P. Aiyar et al., Nat. Commun. 8, 1756 (2017)]. Using a combination of Raman microspectroscopy, genome mining, and mutational analysis, we discovered a polyyne toxin, protegencin, which is secreted by P. protegens, penetrates the algal cells, and causes destruction of the carotenoids of their primitive visual system, the eyespot. Together with secreted orfamide A, protegencin thus prevents the phototactic behavior of C. reinhardtii. A mutant of P. protegens deficient in protegencin production does not affect growth or eyespot carotenoids of C. reinhardtii. Protegencin acts in a direct and destructive way by lysing and killing the algal cells. The toxic effect of protegencin is also observed in an eyeless mutant and with the colony-forming Chlorophyte alga Gonium pectorale. These data reveal a two-pronged molecular strategy involving a cyclic lipopeptide and a conjugated tetrayne used by bacteria to attack select Chlamydomonad algae. In conjunction with the bloom-forming activity of several chlorophytes and the presence of the protegencin gene cluster in over 50 different Pseudomonas genomes [A. J. Mullins et al., bioRxiv [Preprint] (2021). https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.05.433886v1 (Accessed 17 April 2021)], these data are highly relevant to ecological interactions between Chlorophyte algae and Pseudomonadales bacteria.
- «
- 1 (current)
- 2
- 3
- »