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- ItemReply to Burgess et al: Catastrophic climate risks are neglected, plausible, and safe to study(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2022) Kemp, Luke; Xu, Chi; Depledge, Joanna; Ebi, Kristie L.; Gibbins, Goodwin; Kohler, Timothy A.; Rockström, Johan; Scheffer, Marten; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Steffen, Will; Lenton, Timothy M.
- ItemMultimodel assessments of human and climate impacts on mean annual streamflow in China(Munich : EGU, 2019) Liu, Xingcai; Liu, Wenfeng; Yang, Hong; Tang, Qiuhong; Flörke, Martina; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pokhrel, Yadu; Satoh, Yusuke; Wada, YoshihideHuman activities, as well as climate variability, have had increasing impacts on natural hydrological systems, particularly streamflow. However, quantitative assessments of these impacts are lacking on large scales. In this study, we use the simulations from six global hydrological models driven by three meteorological forcings to investigate direct human impact (DHI) and climate impact on streamflow in China. Results show that, in the sub-periods of 1971-1990 and 1991-2010, one-fifth to one-third of mean annual streamflow (MAF) was reduced due to DHI in northern basins, and much smaller ( 4 %) MAF was reduced in southern basins. From 1971-1990 to 1991-2010, total MAF changes range from-13%to 10%across basins wherein the relative contributions of DHI change and climate variability show distinct spatial patterns. DHI change caused decreases in MAF in 70% of river segments, but climate variability dominated the total MAF changes in 88% of river segments of China. In most northern basins, climate variability results in changes of-9% to 18% in MAF, while DHI change results in decreases of 2% to 8% in MAF. In contrast with the climate variability that may increase or decrease streamflow, DHI change almost always contributes to decreases in MAF over time, with water withdrawals supposedly being the major impact on streamflow. This quantitative assessment can be a reference for attribution of streamflow changes at large scales, despite remaining uncertainty. We highlight the significant DHI in northern basins and the necessity to modulate DHI through improved water management towards a better adaptation to future climate change. © 2019 Author(s).
- ItemPacific climate reflected in Waipuna Cave drip water hydrochemistry(Munich : EGU, 2020) Nava-Fernandez, Cinthya; Hartland, Adam; Gázquez, Fernando; Kwiecien, Ola; Marwan, Norbert; Fox, Bethany; Hellstrom, John; Pearson, Andrew; Ward, Brittany; French, Amanda; Hodell, David A.; Immenhauser, Adrian; Breitenbach, Sebastian F.M.Cave microclimate and geochemical monitoring is vitally important for correct interpretations of proxy time series from speleothems with regard to past climatic and environmental dynamics. We present results of a comprehensive cave-monitoring programme in Waipuna Cave in the North Island of New Zealand, a region that is strongly influenced by the Southern Westerlies and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study aims to characterise the response of the Waipuna Cave hydrological system to atmospheric circulation dynamics in the southwestern Pacific region in order to assure the quality of ongoing palaeo-environmental reconstructions from this cave. Drip water from 10 drip sites was collected at roughly monthly intervals for a period of ca. 3 years for isotopic (d18O, dD, d-excess parameter, d17O, and 17Oexcess) and elemental (Mg=Ca and Sr=Ca) analysis. The monitoring included spot measurements of drip rates and cave air CO2 concentration. Cave air temperature and drip rates were also continuously recorded by automatic loggers. These datasets were compared to surface air temperature, rainfall, and potential evaporation from nearby meteorological stations to test the degree of signal transfer and expression of surface environmental conditions in Waipuna Cave hydrochemistry. Based on the drip response dynamics to rainfall and other characteristics, we identified three types of discharge associated with hydrological routing in Waipuna Cave: (i) type 1-diffuse flow, (ii) type 2-fracture flow, and (iii) type 3-combined flow. Drip water isotopes do not reflect seasonal variability but show higher values during severe drought. Drip water d18O values are characterised by small variability and reflect the mean isotopic signature of precipitation, testifying to rapid and thorough homogenisation in the epikarst. Mg=Ca and Sr=Ca ratios in drip waters are predominantly controlled by prior calcite precipitation (PCP). Prior calcite precipitation is strongest during austral summer (December-February), reflecting drier conditions and a lack of effec tive infiltration, and is weakest during the wet austral winter (July-September). The Sr=Ca ratio is particularly sensitive to ENSO conditions due to the interplay of congruent or incongruent host rock dissolution, which manifests itself in lower Sr=Ca in above-average warmer and wetter (La Niña-like) conditions. Our microclimatic observations at Waipuna Cave provide a valuable baseline for the rigorous interpretation of speleothem proxy records aiming at reconstructing the past expression of Pacific climate modes. © 2020 Author(s).
- ItemReply to Kelman: The foundations for studying catastrophic climate risks(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2022) Kemp, Luke; Xu, Chi; Depledge, Joanna; Ebi, Kristie L.; Gibbins, Goodwin; Kohler, Timothy A.; Rockström, Johan; Scheffer, Marten; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Steffen, Will; Lenton, Timothy M.