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- ItemClimate change and potential distribution of potato (Solanum tuberosum) crop cultivation in Pakistan using Maxent(Springfield, MO : AIMS Press, 2021) Khalil, Tayyaba; Asad, Saeed A.; Khubaib, Nusaiba; Baig, Ayesha; Atif, Salman; Umar, Muhammad; Kropp, Jürgen P.; Pradhan, Prajal; Baig, SofiaThe impacts of climate change are projected to become more intense and frequent. One of the indirect impacts of climate change is food insecurity. Agriculture in Pakistan, measured fourth best in the world, is already experiencing visible adverse impacts of climate change. Among many other food sources, potato crop remains one of the food security crops for developing nations. Potatoes are widely cultivated in Pakistan. To assess the impact of climate change on potato crop in Pakistan, it is imperative to analyze its distribution under future climate change scenarios using Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Maximum Entropy Model is used in this study to predict the spatial distribution of Potato in 2070 using two CMIP5 models for two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). 19 Bioclimatic variables are incorporated along with other contributing variables like soil type, elevation and irrigation. The results indicate slight decrease in the suitable area for potato growth in RCP 4.5 and drastic decrease in suitable area in RCP 8.5 for both models. The performance evaluation of the model is based on AUC. AUC value of 0.85 suggests the fitness of the model and thus, it is applicable to predict the suitable climate for potato production in Pakistan. Sustainable potato cultivation is needed to increase productivity in developing countries while promoting better resource management and optimization.
- ItemPerspectives from CO+RE: How COVID-19 changed our food systems and food security paradigms(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2020) Bakalis, Serafim; Valdramidis, Vasilis P.; Argyropoulos, Dimitrios; Ahrne, Lilia; Chen, Jianshe; Cullen, P.J.; Cummins, Enda; Datta, Ashim K.; Emmanouilidis, Christos; Foster, Tim; Fryer, Peter J.; Gouseti, Ourania; Hospido, Almudena; Knoerzer, Kai; LeBail, Alain; Marangoni, Alejandro G.; Rao, Pingfan; Schlüter, Oliver K.; Taoukis, Petros; Xanthakis, Epameinondas; Van Impe, Jan F.M.[no abstract available]
- ItemAgriculture's Historic Twin-Challenge Toward Sustainable Water Use and Food Supply for All(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2020) Jägermeyr, JonasA sustainable and just future, envisioned by the UN's 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, puts agricultural systems under a heavy strain. The century-old quandary to provide ever-growing human populations with sufficient food takes on a new dimension with the recognition of environmental limits for agricultural resource use. To highlight challenges and opportunities toward sustainable food security in the twenty first century, this perspective paper provides a historical account of the escalating pressures on agriculture and freshwater resources alike, supported by new quantitative estimates of the ascent of excessive human water use. As the transformation of global farming into sustainable forms is unattainable without a revolution in agricultural water use, water saving and food production potentials are put into perspective with targets outlined by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The literature body and here-confirmed global estimates of untapped opportunities in farm water management indicate that these measures could sustainably intensify today's farming systems at scale. While rigorous implementation of sustainable water withdrawals (SDG 6.4) might impinge upon 5% of global food production, scaling-up water interventions in rainfed and irrigated systems could over-compensate such losses and further increase global production by 30% compared to the current situation (SDG 2.3). Without relying on future technological fixes, traditional on-farm water and soil management provides key strategies associated with important synergies that needs better integration into agro-ecological landscape approaches. Integrated strategies for sustainable intensification of agriculture within planetary boundaries are a potential way to attain several SDGs, but they are not yet receiving attention from high-level development policies. © Copyright © 2020 Jägermeyr.
- ItemIntegrating Life Cycle and Impact Assessments to Map Food's Cumulative Environmental Footprint(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2020) Kuempel, Caitlin D.; Frazier, Melanie; Nash, Kirsty L.; Jacobsen, Nis Sand; Williams, David R.; Blanchard, Julia L.; Cottrell, Richard S.; McIntyre, Peter B.; Moran, Daniel; Bouwman, Lex; Froehlich, Halley E.; Gephart, Jessica A.; Metian, Marc; Többen, Johannes; Halpern, Benjamin S.Producing food exerts pressures on the environment. Understanding the location and magnitude of food production is key to reducing the impacts of these pressures on nature and people. In this Perspective, Kuempel et al. outline an approach for integrating life cycle assessment and cumulative impact mapping data and methodologies to map the cumulative environmental pressure of food systems. The approach enables quantification of current and potential future environmental pressures, which are needed to reduce the net impact of feeding humanity. © 2020 The AuthorsFeeding a growing, increasingly affluent population while limiting environmental pressures of food production is a central challenge for society. Understanding the location and magnitude of food production is key to addressing this challenge because pressures vary substantially across food production types. Applying data and models from life cycle assessment with the methodologies for mapping cumulative environmental impacts of human activities (hereafter cumulative impact mapping) provides a powerful approach to spatially map the cumulative environmental pressure of food production in a way that is consistent and comprehensive across food types. However, these methodologies have yet to be combined. By synthesizing life cycle assessment and cumulative impact mapping methodologies, we provide guidance for comprehensively and cumulatively mapping the environmental pressures (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions, spatial occupancy, and freshwater use) associated with food production systems. This spatial approach enables quantification of current and potential future environmental pressures, which is needed for decision makers to create more sustainable food policies and practices. © 2020 The Authors
- ItemEffects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Food Security and Agriculture in Iran: A Survey(Basel : MDPI AG, 2021) Rad, Abdullah Kaviani; Shamshiri, Redmond R.; Azarm, Hassan; Balasundram, Siva K.; Sultan, MuhammadThe consequences of COVID-19 on the economy and agriculture have raised many concerns about global food security, especially in developing countries. Given that food security is a critical component that is affected by global crises, beside the limited studies carried out on the macro-impacts of COVID-19 on food security in Iran, this paper is an attempt to address the dynamic impacts of COVID-19 on food security along with economic and environmental challenges in Iran. For this purpose, a survey was conducted with the hypothesis that COVID-19 has not affected food security in Iran. To address this fundamental hypothesis, we applied the systematic review method to obtain the evidence. Various evidences, including indices and statistics, were collected from national databases, scientific reports, field observations, and interviews. Preliminary results revealed that COVID-19 exerts its effects on the economy, agriculture, and food security of Iran through six major mechanisms, corresponding to a 30% decrease in the purchasing power parity in 2020 beside a significant increase in food prices compared to 2019. On the other hand, the expanding environmental constraints in Iran reduce the capacity of the agricultural sector to play a crucial role in the economy and ensure food security, and in this regard, COVID-19 forces the national programs and budget to combat rising ecological limitations. Accordingly, our study rejects the hypothesis that COVID-19 has not affected food security in Iran.
- ItemThe ongoing nutrition transition thwarts long-term targets for food security, public health and environmental protection([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2020) Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Martinelli, Eleonora; Stenstad, Antonia; Pradhan, Prajal; Gabrysch, Sabine; Mishra, Abhijeet; Weindl, Isabelle; Le Mouël, Chantal; Rolinski, Susanne; Baumstark, Lavinia; Wang, Xiaoxi; Waid, Jillian L.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, AlexanderThe nutrition transition transforms food systems globally and shapes public health and environmental change. Here we provide a global forward-looking assessment of a continued nutrition transition and its interlinked symptoms in respect to food consumption. These symptoms range from underweight and unbalanced diets to obesity, food waste and environmental pressure. We find that by 2050, 45% (39–52%) of the world population will be overweight and 16% (13–20%) obese, compared to 29% and 9% in 2010 respectively. The prevalence of underweight approximately halves but absolute numbers stagnate at 0.4–0.7 billion. Aligned, dietary composition shifts towards animal-source foods and empty calories, while the consumption of vegetables, fruits and nuts increases insufficiently. Population growth, ageing, increasing body mass and more wasteful consumption patterns are jointly pushing global food demand from 30 to 45 (43–47) Exajoules. Our comprehensive open dataset and model provides the interfaces necessary for integrated studies of global health, food systems, and environmental change. Achieving zero hunger, healthy diets, and a food demand compatible with environmental boundaries necessitates a coordinated redirection of the nutrition transition. Reducing household waste, animal-source foods, and overweight could synergistically address multiple symptoms at once, while eliminating underweight would not substantially increase food demand.
- ItemImpact of unseasonable flooding on women's food security and mental health in rural Sylhet, Bangladesh: a longitudinal observational study(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2022) Gepp, Sophie; Waid, Jillian L; Brombierstäudl, Dagmar; Kader, Abdul; Müller-Hauser, Anna A; Wendt, Amanda S; Dame, Juliane; Gabrysch, SabineBackground Climate change will lead to more frequent and intensive flooding. In April, 2017, unseasonably early flooding led to the inundation of low-lying cropland before the rice harvest in northeastern Bangladesh. We describe coping strategies and quantify short-term and medium-term effects of flooding events on food security and depressive symptoms of women. Methods This observational study is part of the cluster-randomised Food and Agricultural Approaches to Reducing Malnutrition trial (FAARM; NCT02505711). Women self-reported flooding exposure on behalf of their households when surveyed (approximately 6 months after the event). Remote sensing analysis was used to detect the extent of the flooding. We collected data on household food security at baseline, depressive symptoms 4–5 months before the flooding, and coping strategies immediately after the event. We followed up on these outcome measurements for depressive symptoms and food security for up to 2·5 years after the flooding event. We used multilevel regression adjusting for intervention allocation and pre-flooding measures to quantify the flood's effect on household food security and women's mental health. Findings The FAARM trial included 2700 young women in 96 settlements in rural Sylhet, Bangladesh. 1335 (56%) of 2405 women reported that their household being greatly affected, with many losing a large part of their rice harvest. Borrowing money with interest was the most common coping strategy, with households paying back on average 1·5 times the borrowed amount. Greatly affected households had higher odds of food insecurity, with a decreasing effect with increasing time after the flood (odds ratio: 2·4 [p<0·0001] 0·5 years after; 1·6 [p<0·0001] 2·0 years after]; and 1·3 [p=0·012] 2·5 years after). Women in such households also had 1·45 times higher odds of depression (p=0·0001) 2·5 years after the flooding event. Interpretation The 2017 flooding event negatively affected food security and the mental health of women in rural Sylhet, Bangladesh, and few affected women received formal government support. To reduce the impact of future floods, livelihood adaptations and expansion of financial protection programmes are essential measures to pursue. Funding German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (Berlin, Germany) and UK Department for International Development (London, UK).