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- ItemOverview: The Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR)(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2023) Meier, H. E. Markus; Reckermann, Marcus; Langner, Joakim; Smith, Ben; Didenkulova, IraBaltic Earth is an independent research network of scientists from all Baltic Sea countries that promotes regional Earth system research. Within the framework of this network, the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEARs) were produced in the period 2019-2022. These are a collection of 10 review articles summarising current knowledge on the environmental and climatic state of the Earth system in the Baltic Sea region and its changes in the past (palaeoclimate), present (historical period with instrumental observations) and prospective future (until 2100) caused by natural variability, climate change and other human activities. The division of topics among articles follows the grand challenges and selected themes of the Baltic Earth Science Plan, such as the regional water, biogeochemical and carbon cycles; extremes and natural hazards; sea-level dynamics and coastal erosion; marine ecosystems; coupled Earth system models; scenario simulations for the regional atmosphere and the Baltic Sea; and climate change and impacts of human use. Each review article contains an introduction, the current state of knowledge, knowledge gaps, conclusions and key messages; the latter are the bases on which recommendations for future research are made. Based on the BEARs, Baltic Earth has published an information leaflet on climate change in the Baltic Sea as part of its outreach work, which has been published in two languages so far, and organised conferences and workshops for stakeholders, in collaboration with the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission (Helsinki Commission, HELCOM).
- ItemThe Earth system model CLIMBER-X v1.0 – Part 1: Climate model description and validation(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2022) Willeit, Matteo; Ganopolski, Andrey; Robinson, Alexander; Edwards, Neil R.The newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X is presented. The climate component of CLIMBER-X consists of a 2.5-D semi-empirical statistical-dynamical atmosphere model, a 3-D frictional-geostrophic ocean model, a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model and a land surface model. All the model components are discretized on a regular lat-long grid with a horizontal resolution of 5 ° ×5 °. The model has a throughput of ° ∼ 10 000 simulation years per day on a single node with 16 CPUs on a high-performance computer and is designed to simulate the evolution of the Earth system on temporal scales ranging from decades to >100000 years. A comprehensive evaluation of the model performance for the present day and the historical period shows that CLIMBER-X is capable of realistically reproducing many observed climate characteristics, with results that generally lie within the range of state-of-the-art general circulation models. The analysis of model performance is complemented by a thorough assessment of climate feedbacks and model sensitivities to changes in external forcings and boundary conditions. Limitations and applicability of the model are critically discussed. CLIMBER-X also includes a detailed representation of the global carbon cycle and is coupled to an ice sheet model, which will be described in separate papers. CLIMBER-X is available as open-source code and is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the climate.
- ItemClimate change and international migration: Exploring the macroeconomic channel(San Francisco, California, US : PLOS, 2022) Rikani, Albano; Frieler, Katja; Schewe, JacobInternational migration patterns, at the global level, can to a large extent be explained through economic factors in origin and destination countries. On the other hand, it has been shown that global climate change is likely to affect economic development over the coming decades. Here, we demonstrate how these future climate impacts on national income levels could alter the global migration landscape. Using an empirically calibrated global migration model, we investigate two separate mechanisms. The first is through destination-country income, which has been shown consistently to have a positive effect on immigration. As countries' income levels relative to each other are projected to change in the future both due to different rates of economic growth and due to different levels of climate change impacts, the relative distribution of immigration across destination countries also changes as a result, all else being equal. Second, emigration rates have been found to have a complex, inverted U-shaped dependence on origin-country income. Given the available migration flow data, it is unclear whether this dependence-found in spatio-temporal panel data-also pertains to changes in a given migration flow over time. If it does, then climate change will additionally affect migration patterns through origin countries' emigration rates, as the relative and absolute positions of countries on the migration "hump" change. We illustrate these different possibilities, and the corresponding effects of 3°C global warming (above pre-industrial) on global migration patterns, using climate model projections and two different methods for estimating climate change effects on macroeconomic development.
- ItemHuman displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change(Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geophysical Society, 2023) Mester, Benedikt; Vogt, Thomas; Bryant, Seth; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja; Schewe, JacobExtreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, often trigger population displacement. The frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are affected by anthropogenic climate change. However, the effect of historical climate change on displacement risk has so far not been quantified. Here, we show how displacement can be partially attributed to climate change using the example of the 2019 Tropical Cyclone Idai in Mozambique. We estimate the population exposed to high water levels following Idai's landfall using a combination of a 2D hydrodynamical storm surge model and a flood depth estimation algorithm to determine inland flood depths from remote sensing images, factual (climate change) and counterfactual (no climate change) mean sea level, and maximum wind speed conditions. Our main estimates indicate that climate change has increased displacement risk from this event by approximately 12 600-14 900 additional displaced persons, corresponding to about 2.7 % to 3.2 % of the observed displacements. The isolated effect of wind speed intensification is double that of sea level rise. These results are subject to important uncertainties related to both data and modeling assumptions, and we perform multiple sensitivity experiments to assess the range of uncertainty where possible. Besides highlighting the significant effects on humanitarian conditions already imparted by climate change, our study provides a blueprint for event-based displacement attribution.
- ItemReply to Burgess et al: Catastrophic climate risks are neglected, plausible, and safe to study(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2022) Kemp, Luke; Xu, Chi; Depledge, Joanna; Ebi, Kristie L.; Gibbins, Goodwin; Kohler, Timothy A.; Rockström, Johan; Scheffer, Marten; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Steffen, Will; Lenton, Timothy M.
- ItemThe role of atmospheric rivers in the distribution of heavy precipitation events over North America(Munich : EGU, 2023) Vallejo-Bernal, Sara M.; Wolf, Frederik; Boers, Niklas; Traxl, Dominik; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, JürgenAtmospheric rivers (ARs) are filaments of extensive water vapor transport in the lower troposphere that play a crucial role in the distribution of freshwater but can also cause natural and economic damage by facilitating heavy precipitation. Here, we investigate the large-scale spatiotemporal synchronization patterns of heavy precipitation events (HPEs) over the western coast and the continental regions of North America (NA), during the period from 1979 to 2018. In particular, we use event synchronization and a complex network approach incorporating varying delays to examine the temporal evolution of spatial patterns of HPEs in the aftermath of land-falling ARs. For that, we employ the SIO-R1 catalog of ARs that landfall on the western coast of NA, ranked in terms of intensity and persistence on an AR-strength scale which varies from level AR1 to AR5, along with daily precipitation estimates from ERA5 with a 0.25'spatial resolution. Our analysis reveals a cascade of synchronized HPEs, triggered by ARs of level AR3 or higher. On the first 3d after an AR makes landfall, HPEs mostly occur and synchronize along the western coast of NA. In the subsequent days, moisture can be transported to central and eastern Canada and cause synchronized but delayed HPEs there. Furthermore, we confirm the robustness of our findings with an additional AR catalog based on a different AR detection method. Finally, analyzing the anomalies of integrated water vapor transport, geopotential height, upper-level meridional wind, and precipitation, we find atmospheric circulation patterns that are consistent with the spatiotemporal evolution of the synchronized HPEs. Revealing the role of ARs in the precipitation patterns over NA will lead to a better understanding of inland HPEs and the effects that changing climate dynamics will have on precipitation occurrence and consequent impacts in the context of a warming atmosphere.
- ItemSevere climate change risks to food security and nutrition(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2022) Mirzabaev, Alisher; Bezner Kerr, Rachel; Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Pradhan, Prajal; Wreford, Anita; Tirado von der Pahlen, Maria Cristina; Gurney-Smith, HelenThis paper discusses severe risks to food security and nutrition that are linked to ongoing and projected climate change, particularly climate and weather extremes in global warming, drought, flooding, and precipitation. We specifically consider the impacts on populations vulnerable to food insecurity and malnutrition due to lower income, lower access to nutritious food, or social discrimination. The paper defines climate-related “severe risk” in the context of food security and nutrition, using a combination of criteria, including the magnitude and likelihood of adverse consequences, the timing of the risk and the ability to reduce the risk. Severe climate change risks to food security and nutrition are those which result, with high likelihood, in pervasive and persistent food insecurity and malnutrition for millions of people, have the potential for cascading effects beyond the food systems, and against which we have limited ability to prevent or fully respond. The paper uses internationally agreed definitions of risks to food security and nutrition to describe the magnitude of adverse consequences. Moreover, the paper assesses the conditions under which climate change-induced risks to food security and nutrition could become severe based on findings in the literature using different climate change scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways. Finally, the paper proposes adaptation options, including institutional management and governance actions, that could be taken now to prevent or reduce the severe climate risks to future human food security and nutrition.
- ItemClimate mobilities, rights and justice: Complexities and particularities(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2022) Farbotko, Carol; Thornton, Fanny; Mayrhofer, Monika; Hermann, ElfriedeClimate mobility revolves around issues of justice and human rights, whether this be concerning its causes, expression or handling. This paper examines the justice-rights nexus as it relates to climate mobility, highlighting how the two spheres converge and diverge. It works with four case studies exploring the complexity of rights and justice in the climate mobility context. Our case studies are diverse, in terms of the mobility types concerned and the rights and justice-based issues involved. We show that conceptualizing or achieving just or righteous outcomes is neither certain nor a uniform pursuit when it comes to climate mobility. Rather, there are many divergences–by those who claim rights or justice, and those asked to respond. We present a complex and contested space, highlight the importance of approaching justice and rights matters contextually, and with special attention to particularities when climate mobility is at issue.
- ItemThe future is now: Climate displacement and human rights obligations—a note on recent developments in the UN Human Rights Committee(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2022) Thornton, FannyAlthough climate litigation—or the pursuit of legal resolve of matters stemming from anthropogenic climate change—has been growing around the world, climate mobility is seldom at the heart of relevant case law. It is human rights law bodies, in particular, which have nevertheless begun to progress legal developments in the sphere of climate mobility. This note looks at a 2022 determination by the UN Human Rights Committee concerning the habitability of a small island setting—Australia's Torres Strait Islands—under climate change conditions and the legal responsibilities of nation states to abide by their international human rights obligations in implementing timely adaptation measures now which could help to ensure continued habitation.
- ItemPhysics in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere: A personal perspective(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2022) Lübken, Franz-JosefThe scope of this paper is to present some progress being made in the last few decades regarding some aspects of physical processes in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere and to point to some open questions. This summary is presented from a personal perspective, i.e., this is not a review of a certain science topic. Most citations reflect my own work or are representative examples only. They are not meant to be complete or comprehensive.