5 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 5 of 5
- ItemProjecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2020) Levermann, Anders; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Albrecht, Torsten; Goelzer, Heiko; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Greve, Ralf; Huybrechts, Philippe; Jordan, Jim; Leguy, Gunter; Martin, Daniel; Morlighem, Mathieu; Pattyn, Frank; Pollard, David; Quiquet, Aurelien; Rodehacke, Christian; Seroussi, Helene; Sutter, Johannes; Zhang, Tong; Van Breedam, Jonas; Calov, Reinhard; DeConto, Robert; Dumas, Christophe; Garbe, Julius; Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Humbert, Angelika; Kleiner, Thomas; Lipscomb, William H.; Meinshausen, Malte; Ng, Esmond; Nowicki, Sophie M.J.; Perego, Mauro; Price, Stephen F.; Saito, Fuyuki; Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne; Sun, Sainan; van de Wal, Roderik S.W.The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain the ice flow response to the individual global warming path. The model median for the observational period from 1992 to 2017 of the ice loss due to basal ice shelf melting is 10.2 mm, with a likely range between 5.2 and 21.3 mm. For the same period the Antarctic ice sheet lost mass equivalent to 7.4mm of global sea level rise, with a standard deviation of 3.7mm (Shepherd et al., 2018) including all processes, especially surface-mass-balance changes. For the unabated warming path, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), we obtain a median contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea level rise from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century of 17 cm, with a likely range (66th percentile around the mean) between 9 and 36 cm and a very likely range (90th percentile around the mean) between 6 and 58 cm. For the RCP2.6 warming path, which will keep the global mean temperature below 2 °C of global warming and is thus consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement, the procedure yields a median of 13 cm of global mean sea level contribution. The likely range for the RCP2.6 scenario is between 7 and 24 cm, and the very likely range is between 4 and 37 cm. The structural uncertainties in the method do not allow for an interpretation of any higher uncertainty percentiles.We provide projections for the five Antarctic regions and for each model and each scenario separately. The rate of sea level contribution is highest under the RCP8.5 scenario. The maximum within the 21st century of the median value is 4 cm per decade, with a likely range between 2 and 9 cm per decade and a very likely range between 1 and 14 cm per decade. © Author(s) 2020.
- ItemProjecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2014) Levermann, A.; Winkelmann, R.; Nowicki, S.; Fastook, J.L.; Frieler, K.; Greve, R.; Hellmer, H.H.; Martin, M.A.; Meinshausen, M.; Mengel, M.; Payne, A.J.; Pollard, D.; Sato, T.; Timmermann, R.; Wang, W.L.; Bindschadler, R.A.The largest uncertainty in projections of future sea-level change results from the potentially changing dynamical ice discharge from Antarctica. Basal ice-shelf melting induced by a warming ocean has been identified as a major cause for additional ice flow across the grounding line. Here we attempt to estimate the uncertainty range of future ice discharge from Antarctica by combining uncertainty in the climatic forcing, the oceanic response and the ice-sheet model response. The uncertainty in the global mean temperature increase is obtained from historically constrained emulations with the MAGICC-6.0 (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) model. The oceanic forcing is derived from scaling of the subsurface with the atmospheric warming from 19 comprehensive climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-5) and two ocean models from the EU-project Ice2Sea. The dynamic ice-sheet response is derived from linear response functions for basal ice-shelf melting for four different Antarctic drainage regions using experiments from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) intercomparison project with five different Antarctic ice-sheet models. The resulting uncertainty range for the historic Antarctic contribution to global sea-level rise from 1992 to 2011 agrees with the observed contribution for this period if we use the three ice-sheet models with an explicit representation of ice-shelf dynamics and account for the time-delayed warming of the oceanic subsurface compared to the surface air temperature. The median of the additional ice loss for the 21st century is computed to 0.07 m (66% range: 0.02–0.14 m; 90% range: 0.0–0.23 m) of global sea-level equivalent for the low-emission RCP-2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario and 0.09 m (66% range: 0.04–0.21 m; 90% range: 0.01–0.37 m) for the strongest RCP-8.5. Assuming no time delay between the atmospheric warming and the oceanic subsurface, these values increase to 0.09 m (66% range: 0.04–0.17 m; 90% range: 0.02–0.25 m) for RCP-2.6 and 0.15 m (66% range: 0.07–0.28 m; 90% range: 0.04–0.43 m) for RCP-8.5. All probability distributions are highly skewed towards high values. The applied ice-sheet models are coarse resolution with limitations in the representation of grounding-line motion. Within the constraints of the applied methods, the uncertainty induced from different ice-sheet models is smaller than that induced by the external forcing to the ice sheets.
- ItemMechanical performance and corrosion behaviour of Zr-based bulk metallic glass produced by selective laser melting(Amsterdam : Elsevier B.V., 2020) Deng, L.; Gebert, A.; Zhang, L.; Chen, H.Y.; Gu, D.D.; Kühn, U.; Zimmermann, M.; Kosiba, K.; Pauly, S.Nearly fully dense, glassy Zr52.5Cu17.9Ni14.6Al10Ti5 bulk specimens were fabricated by selective laser melting (SLM) and their behaviour during compressive loading, during wear testing and in a corrosive medium was investigated. Their performance was compared with as-cast material of the same composition. The additively manufactured samples exhibit a yield strength around 1700 MPa combined with a plastic strain of about 0.5% after yielding despite the residual porosity of 1.3%, which is distributed uniformly in the samples. The propagation of shear bands in the bulk metallic glass prepared by SLM was studied. The specific wear rate and the worn surfaces demonstrated that similar wear mechanisms are active in the SLM and the as-cast samples. Hence, manufacturing the glass in layers does not adversely affect the wear properties. The same holds for the corrosion tests, which were carried out in 0.01 M Na2SO4 and 0.1 M NaCl electrolyte. The anodic polarization curves of SLM samples and as-cast samples revealed a similar corrosion behaviour. However, the SLM samples have a slightly reduced susceptibility to pitting corrosion and exhibit an improved surface healing ability, which might be attributed to an improved homogeneity of the additively manufactured glass.
- ItemProcessing metallic glasses by selective laser melting(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2013) Pauly, S.; Löber, L.; Petters, R.; Stoica, M.; Scudino, S.; Kühn, U.; Eckert, J.Metallic glasses and their descendants, the so-called bulk metallic glasses (BMGs), can be regarded as frozen liquids with a high resistance to crystallization. The lack of a conventional structure turns them into a material exhibiting near-theoretical strength, low Young's modulus and large elasticity. These unique mechanical properties can be only obtained when the metallic melts are rapidly cooled to bypass the nucleation and growth of crystals. Most of the commonly known and used processing routes, such as casting, melt spinning or gas atomization, have intrinsic limitations regarding the complexity and dimensions of the geometries. Here, it is shown that selective laser melting (SLM), which is usually used to process conventional metallic alloys and polymers, can be applied to implement complex geometries and components from an Fe-base metallic glass. This approach is in principle viable for a large variety of metallic alloys and paves the way for the novel synthesis of materials and the development of parts with advanced functional and structural properties without limitations in size and intricacy.
- ItemDirect Observation of Shock-Induced Disordering of Enstatite Below the Melting Temperature(Hoboken, NJ [u.a.] : Wiley, 2020) Hernandez, J.-A.; Morard, G.; Guarguaglini, M.; Alonso-Mori, R.; Benuzzi-Mounaix, A.; Bolis, R.; Fiquet, G.; Galtier, E.; Gleason, A.E.; Glenzer, S.; Guyot, F.; Ko, B.; Lee, H.J.; Mao, W.L.; Nagler, B.; Ozaki, N.; Schuster, A.K.; Shim, S.H.; Vinci, T.; Ravasio, A.We report in situ structural measurements of shock-compressed single crystal orthoenstatite up to 337 ± 55 GPa on the Hugoniot, obtained by coupling ultrafast X-ray diffraction to laser-driven shock compression. Shock compression induces a disordering of the crystalline structure evidenced by the appearance of a diffuse X-ray diffraction signal at nanosecond timescales at 80 ± 13 GPa on the Hugoniot, well below the equilibrium melting pressure (>170 GPa). The formation of bridgmanite and post-perovskite have been indirectly reported in microsecond-scale plate-impact experiments. Therefore, we interpret the high-pressure disordered state we observed at nanosecond scale as an intermediate structure from which bridgmanite and post-perovskite crystallize at longer timescales. This evidence of a disordered structure of MgSiO3 on the Hugoniot indicates that the degree of polymerization of silicates is a key parameter to constrain the actual thermodynamics of shocks in natural environments. © 2020. The Authors.