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Climate change and potential distribution of potato (Solanum tuberosum) crop cultivation in Pakistan using Maxent
The impacts of climate change are projected to become more intense and frequent. One of the indirect impacts of climate change is food insecurity. Agriculture in Pakistan, measured fourth best in the world, is already experiencing visible adverse impacts of climate change. Among many other food sources, potato crop remains one of the food security crops for developing nations. Potatoes are widely cultivated in Pakistan. To assess the impact of climate change on potato crop in Pakistan, it is imperative to analyze its distribution under future climate change scenarios using Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Maximum Entropy Model is used in this study to predict the spatial distribution of Potato in 2070 using two CMIP5 models for two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). 19 Bioclimatic variables are incorporated along with other contributing variables like soil type, elevation and irrigation. The results indicate slight decrease in the suitable area for potato growth in RCP 4.5 and drastic decrease in suitable area in RCP 8.5 for both models. The performance evaluation of the model is based on AUC. AUC value of 0.85 suggests the fitness of the model and thus, it is applicable to predict the suitable climate for potato production in Pakistan. Sustainable potato cultivation is needed to increase productivity in developing countries while promoting better resource management and optimization.
Key determinants of global land-use projections
Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.
Teleconnected food supply shocks
The 2008–2010 food crisis might have been a harbinger of fundamental climate-induced food crises with geopolitical implications. Heat-wave-induced yield losses in Russia and resulting export restrictions led to increases in market prices for wheat across the Middle East, likely contributing to the Arab Spring. With ongoing climate change, temperatures and temperature variability will rise, leading to higher uncertainty in yields for major nutritional crops. Here we investigate which countries are most vulnerable to teleconnected supply-shocks, i.e. where diets strongly rely on the import of wheat, maize, or rice, and where a large share of the population is living in poverty. We find that the Middle East is most sensitive to teleconnected supply shocks in wheat, Central America to supply shocks in maize, and Western Africa to supply shocks in rice. Weighing with poverty levels, Sub-Saharan Africa is most affected. Altogether, a simultaneous 10% reduction in exports of wheat, rice, and maize would reduce caloric intake of 55 million people living in poverty by about 5%. Export bans in major producing regions would put up to 200 million people below the poverty line at risk, 90% of which live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results suggest that a region-specific combination of national increases in agricultural productivity and diversification of trade partners and diets can effectively decrease future food security risks.
Causes and trends of water scarcity in food production
The insufficiency of water resources to meet the needs of food production is a pressing issue that is likely to increase in importance in the future. Improved understanding of historical developments can provide a basis for addressing future challenges. In this study we analyse how hydroclimatic variation, cropland expansion and evolving agricultural practices have influenced the potential for food self-sufficiency within the last century. We consider a food production unit (FPU) to have experienced green–blue water (GBW) scarcity if local renewable green (in soils) and blue water resources (in rivers, lakes, reservoirs, aquifers) were not sufficient for producing a reference food supply of 3000 kcal with 20% animal products for all inhabitants. The number of people living in FPUs affected by GBW scarcity has gone up from 360 million in 1905 (21% of world population at the time) to 2.2 billion (34%) in 2005. During this time, GBW scarcity has spread to large areas and become more frequent in regions where it occurs. Meanwhile, cropland expansion has increased green water availability for agriculture around the world, and advancements in agronomic practices have decreased water requirements of producing food. These efforts have improved food production potential and thus eased GBW scarcity considerably but also made possible the rapid population growth of the last century. The influence of modern agronomic practices is particularly striking: if agronomic practices of the early 1900s were applied today, it would roughly double the population under GBW scarcity worldwide.
The role of bioenergy in enhancing energy, food and ecosystem sustainability based on societal perceptions and preferences in Asia
This paper discussed the analysis of the survey on sustainability of bioenergy conducted in the Philippines, India and China. It acquired general perceptions of the people by asking them (a) specific questions about their level of familiarity with bioenergy; (b) relationship of their work to bioenergy; and (c) their opinion on contribution of various feedstock on the economy and impact of bioenergy production on food security. In addition to these questions, we estimated preference weights of various feedstock based on the conjoint choices on bioenergy’s contribution to social stability, social welfare and ecological balance. The estimates revealed significant trade-offs not only among these three dimensions of sustainability but also the relative importance of energy security, food security and ecosystem capacity to other economic, social and environmental objectives. The types of first generation feedstock that are currently used for biofuel production in the respective countries and those that offer alternative household use are perceived as important to the economy and preferred bioenergy feedstock. Based on the results of the study, the preferred role of bioenergy for sustainable development reflects the social and economic concerns in the respective Asian countries, e.g., energy security in China, food security in India, and ecosystem degradation in the Philippines.
Two-thirds of global cropland area impacted by climate oscillations
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaked strongly during the boreal winter 2015-2016, leading to food insecurity in many parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America. Besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are known to impact crop yields worldwide. Here we assess for the first time in a unified framework the relationships between ENSO, IOD and NAO and simulated crop productivity at the sub-country scale. Our findings reveal that during 1961-2010, crop productivity is significantly influenced by at least one large-scale climate oscillation in two-thirds of global cropland area. Besides observing new possible links, especially for NAO in Africa and the Middle East, our analyses confirm several known relationships between crop productivity and these oscillations. Our results improve the understanding of climatological crop productivity drivers, which is essential for enhancing food security in many of the most vulnerable places on the planet.
The use of food imports to overcome local limits to growth
There is a fundamental tension between population growth and carrying capacity, i.e., the population that could potentially be supported using the resources and technologies available at a given time. When population growth outpaces improvements in food production locally, food imports can avoid local limits and allow growth to continue. This import strategy is central to the debate on food security with continuing rapid growth of the world population. This highlights the importance of a quantitative global understanding of where the strategy is implemented, whether it has been successful, and what drivers are involved. We present an integrated quantitative analysis to answer these questions at sub‐national and national scale for 1961–2009, focusing on water as the key limiting resource and accounting for resource and technology impacts on local carrying capacity. According to the sub‐national estimates, food imports have nearly universally been used to overcome local limits to growth, affecting 3.0 billion people—81% of the population that is approaching or already exceeded local carrying capacity. This strategy is successful in 88% of the cases, being highly dependent on economic purchasing power. In the unsuccessful cases, increases in imports and local productivity have not kept pace with population growth, leaving 460 million people with insufficient food. Where the strategy has been successful, food security of 1.4 billion people has become dependent on imports. Whether or not this dependence on imports is considered desirable, it has policy implications that need to be taken into account.
Perspectives from CO+RE: How COVID-19 changed our food systems and food security paradigms
[no abstract available]
Reconciling irrigated food production with environmental flows for Sustainable Development Goals implementation
Safeguarding river ecosystems is a precondition for attaining the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to water and the environment, while rigid implementation of such policies may hamper achievement of food security. River ecosystems provide life-supporting functions that depend on maintaining environmental flow requirements (EFRs). Here we establish gridded process-based estimates of EFRs and their violation through human water withdrawals. Results indicate that 41% of current global irrigation water use (997 km 3 per year) occurs at the expense of EFRs. If these volumes were to be reallocated to the ecosystems, half of globally irrigated cropland would face production losses of ≥10%, with losses of ∼20-30% of total country production especially in Central and South Asia. However, we explicitly show that improvement of irrigation practices can widely compensate for such losses on a sustainable basis. Integration with rainwater management can even achieve a 10% global net gain. Such management interventions are highlighted to act as a pivotal target in supporting the implementation of the ambitious and seemingly conflicting SDG agenda.
Agriculture's Historic Twin-Challenge Toward Sustainable Water Use and Food Supply for All
A sustainable and just future, envisioned by the UN's 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, puts agricultural systems under a heavy strain. The century-old quandary to provide ever-growing human populations with sufficient food takes on a new dimension with the recognition of environmental limits for agricultural resource use. To highlight challenges and opportunities toward sustainable food security in the twenty first century, this perspective paper provides a historical account of the escalating pressures on agriculture and freshwater resources alike, supported by new quantitative estimates of the ascent of excessive human water use. As the transformation of global farming into sustainable forms is unattainable without a revolution in agricultural water use, water saving and food production potentials are put into perspective with targets outlined by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The literature body and here-confirmed global estimates of untapped opportunities in farm water management indicate that these measures could sustainably intensify today's farming systems at scale. While rigorous implementation of sustainable water withdrawals (SDG 6.4) might impinge upon 5% of global food production, scaling-up water interventions in rainfed and irrigated systems could over-compensate such losses and further increase global production by 30% compared to the current situation (SDG 2.3). Without relying on future technological fixes, traditional on-farm water and soil management provides key strategies associated with important synergies that needs better integration into agro-ecological landscape approaches. Integrated strategies for sustainable intensification of agriculture within planetary boundaries are a potential way to attain several SDGs, but they are not yet receiving attention from high-level development policies. © Copyright © 2020 Jägermeyr.