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Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences

2019, Runge, Jakob, Bathiany, Sebastian, Bollt, Erik, Camps-Valls, Gustau, Coumou, Dim, Deyle, Ethan, Glymour, Clark, Kretschmer, Marlene, Mahecha, Miguel D., Muñoz-Marí, Jordi, van Nes, Egbert H., Peters, Jonas, Quax, Rick, Reichstein, Markus, Scheffer, Marten, Schölkopf, Bernhard, Spirtes, Peter, Sugihara, George, Sun, Jie, Zhang, Kun, Zscheischler, Jakob

The heart of the scientific enterprise is a rational effort to understand the causes behind the phenomena we observe. In large-scale complex dynamical systems such as the Earth system, real experiments are rarely feasible. However, a rapidly increasing amount of observational and simulated data opens up the use of novel data-driven causal methods beyond the commonly adopted correlation techniques. Here, we give an overview of causal inference frameworks and identify promising generic application cases common in Earth system sciences and beyond. We discuss challenges and initiate the benchmark platform causeme.net to close the gap between method users and developers. © 2019, The Author(s).

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Identifying controlling nodes in neuronal networks in different scales

2012, Tang, Y., Gao, H., Zou, W., Kurths, J.

Recent studies have detected hubs in neuronal networks using degree, betweenness centrality, motif and synchronization and revealed the importance of hubs in their structural and functional roles. In addition, the analysis of complex networks in different scales are widely used in physics community. This can provide detailed insights into the intrinsic properties of networks. In this study, we focus on the identification of controlling regions in cortical networks of cats' brain in microscopic, mesoscopic and macroscopic scales, based on single-objective evolutionary computation methods. The problem is investigated by considering two measures of controllability separately. The impact of the number of driver nodes on controllability is revealed and the properties of controlling nodes are shown in a statistical way. Our results show that the statistical properties of the controlling nodes display a concave or convex shape with an increase of the allowed number of controlling nodes, revealing a transition in choosing driver nodes from the areas with a large degree to the areas with a low degree. Interestingly, the community Auditory in cats' brain, which has sparse connections with other communities, plays an important role in controlling the neuronal networks.

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Correlation networks from flows. The case of forced and time-dependent advection-diffusion dynamics

2016, Tupikina, L., Molkenthin, N., López, C., Hernández-García, E., Marwan, N., Kurths, J.

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Digital IIR filters design using differential evolution algorithm with a controllable probabilistic population size

2012, Zhu, W., Fang, J.-A., Tang, Y., Zhang, W., Du, W.

Design of a digital infinite-impulse-response (IIR) filter is the process of synthesizing and implementing a recursive filter network so that a set of prescribed excitations results a set of desired responses. However, the error surface of IIR filters is usually non-linear and multi-modal. In order to find the global minimum indeed, an improved differential evolution (DE) is proposed for digital IIR filter design in this paper. The suggested algorithm is a kind of DE variants with a controllable probabilistic (CPDE) population size. It considers the convergence speed and the computational cost simultaneously by nonperiodic partial increasing or declining individuals according to fitness diversities. In addition, we discuss as well some important aspects for IIR filter design, such as the cost function value, the influence of (noise) perturbations, the convergence rate and successful percentage, the parameter measurement, etc. As to the simulation result, it shows that the presented algorithm is viable and comparable. Compared with six existing State-of-the-Art algorithms-based digital IIR filter design methods obtained by numerical experiments, CPDE is relatively more promising and competitive.

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Order patterns networks (orpan) - A method to estimate time-evolving functional connectivity from multivariate time series

2012, Schinkel, S., Zamora-López, G., Dimigen, O., Sommer, W., Kurths, J.

Complex networks provide an excellent framework for studying the function of the human brain activity. Yet estimating functional networks from measured signals is not trivial, especially if the data is non-stationary and noisy as it is often the case with physiological recordings. In this article we propose a method that uses the local rank structure of the data to define functional links in terms of identical rank structures. The method yields temporal sequences of networks which permits to trace the evolution of the functional connectivity during the time course of the observation. We demonstrate the potentials of this approach with model data as well as with experimental data from an electrophysiological study on language processing.

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A novel, low-volume method for organ culture of embryonic kidneys that allows development of cortico-medullary anatomical organization

2010, Sebinger, D.D.R., Unbekandt, M., Ganeva, V.V., Ofenbauer, A., Werner, C., Davies, J.A.

Here, we present a novel method for culturing kidneys in low volumes of medium that offers more organotypic development compared to conventional methods. Organ culture is a powerful technique for studying renal development. It recapitulates many aspects of early development very well, but the established techniques have some disadvantages: in particular, they require relatively large volumes (1-3 mls) of culture medium, which can make high-throughput screens expensive, they require porous (filter) substrates which are difficult to modify chemically, and the organs produced do not achieve good cortico-medullary zonation. Here, we present a technique of growing kidney rudiments in very low volumes of medium-around 85 microliters-using silicone chambers. In this system, kidneys grow directly on glass, grow larger than in conventional culture and develop a clear anatomical cortico-medullary zonation with extended loops of Henle. © 2010 Sebinger et al.

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Vinculin binding angle in podosomes revealed by high resolution microscopy

2014, Walde, M., Monypenny, J., Heintzmann, R., Jones, G.E., Cox, S.

Podosomes are highly dynamic actin-rich adhesive structures formed predominantly by cells of the monocytic lineage, which degrade the extracellular matrix. They consist of a core of F-actin and actin-regulating proteins, surrounded by a ring of adhesion-associated proteins such as vinculin. We have characterised the structure of podosomes in macrophages, particularly the structure of the ring, using three super-resolution fluorescence microscopy techniques: stimulated emission depletion microscopy, structured illumination microscopy and localisation microscopy. Rather than being round, as previously assumed, we found the vinculin ring to be created from relatively straight strands of vinculin, resulting in a distinctly polygonal shape. The strands bind preferentially at angles between 116° and 135°. Furthermore, adjacent vinculin strands are observed nucleating at the corners of the podosomes, suggesting a mechanism for podosome growth.

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More Specific Signal Detection in Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging by False Discovery Rate Control for Hierarchically Structured Systems of Hypotheses

2016, Schildknecht, Konstantin, Tabelow, Karsten, Dickhaus, Thorsten

Signal detection in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) inherently involves the problem of testing a large number of hypotheses. A popular strategy to address this multiplicity is the control of the false discovery rate (FDR). In this work we consider the case where prior knowledge is available to partition the set of all hypotheses into disjoint subsets or families, e. g., by a-priori knowledge on the functionality of certain regions of interest. If the proportion of true null hypotheses differs between families, this structural information can be used to increase statistical power. We propose a two-stage multiple test procedure which first excludes those families from the analysis for which there is no strong evidence for containing true alternatives. We show control of the family-wise error rate at this first stage of testing. Then, at the second stage, we proceed to test the hypotheses within each non-excluded family and obtain asymptotic control of the FDR within each family at this second stage. Our main mathematical result is that this two-stage strategy implies asymptotic control of the FDR with respect to all hypotheses. In simulations we demonstrate the increased power of this new procedure in comparison with established procedures in situations with highly unbalanced families. Finally, we apply the proposed method to simulated and to real fMRI data.

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Reconstruction of Complex Network based on the Noise via QR Decomposition and Compressed Sensing

2017, Li, L., Xu, D., Peng, H., Kurths, J., Yang, Y.

It is generally known that the states of network nodes are stable and have strong correlations in a linear network system. We find that without the control input, the method of compressed sensing can not succeed in reconstructing complex networks in which the states of nodes are generated through the linear network system. However, noise can drive the dynamics between nodes to break the stability of the system state. Therefore, a new method integrating QR decomposition and compressed sensing is proposed to solve the reconstruction problem of complex networks under the assistance of the input noise. The state matrix of the system is decomposed by QR decomposition. We construct the measurement matrix with the aid of Gaussian noise so that the sparse input matrix can be reconstructed by compressed sensing. We also discover that noise can build a bridge between the dynamics and the topological structure. Experiments are presented to show that the proposed method is more accurate and more efficient to reconstruct four model networks and six real networks by the comparisons between the proposed method and only compressed sensing. In addition, the proposed method can reconstruct not only the sparse complex networks, but also the dense complex networks.