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- ItemA probabilistic risk assessment for the vulnerability of the European carbon cycle to weather extremes: The ecosystem perspective(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2015) Rolinski, S.; Rammig, A.; Walz, A.; von Bloh, W.; van Oijen, M.; Thonicke, K.Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour. We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for 1981–2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; ERA-Interim data for climate). Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the hazard case than in the non-hazard case. At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first model-based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set. Application of the method to empirical time series and to future climate would be important next steps to test the approach.
- ItemCritical appraisal concerning “Wearable cardioverter defibrillators for the prevention of sudden cardiac arrest: A health technology assessment and patient focus group study”(Macclesfield [u.a.] : Dove Medical Press, 2018) Sperzel, Johannes; Staudacher, Ingo; Goeing, Olaf; Stockburger, Martin; Meyer, Thorsten; Oliveira Gonçalves, Ana Sofia; Sydow, Hanna; Schoenfelder, Tonio; Amelung, Volker Eric[no abstract available]
- ItemInvestigating the Mutagenicity of a Cold Argon-Plasma Jet in an HET-MN Model(San Francisco, California, US : PLOS, 2016) Kluge, Susanne; Bekeschus, Sander; Bender, Claudia; Benkhai, Hicham; Sckell, Axel; Below, Harald; Stope, Matthias B.; Kramer, Axel; Yousfi, MohammedObjective: So-called cold physical plasmas for biomedical applications generate reactive oxygen and nitrogen species and the latter can trigger DNA damage at high concentrations. Therefore, the mutagenic risks of a certified atmospheric pressure argon plasma jet (kINPen MED) and its predecessor model (kINPen 09) were assessed. Methods: Inner egg membranes of fertilized chicken eggs received a single treatment with either the kINPen 09 (1.5, 2.0, or 2.5 min) or the kINPen MED (3, 4, 5, or 10 min). After three days of incubation, blood smears (panoptic May-Grünwald-Giemsa stain) were performed, and 1000 erythrocytes per egg were evaluated for the presence of polychromatic and normochromic nuclear staining as well as nuclear aberrations and binucleated cells (hen’s egg test for micronuclei induction, HET-MN). At the same time, the embryo mortality was documented. For each experiment, positive controls (cyclophosphamide and methotrexate) and negative controls (NaCl-solution, argon gas) were included. Additionally, the antioxidant potential of the blood plasma was assessed by ascorbic acid oxidation assay after treatment. Results: For both plasma sources, there was no evidence of genotoxicity, although at the longest plasma exposure time of 10 min the mortality of the embryos exceeded 40%. The antioxidant potential in the egg’s blood plasma was not significantly reduced immediately (p = 0.32) or 1 h (p = 0.19) post exposure to cold plasma. Conclusion: The longest plasma treatment time with the kINPen MED was 5–10 fold above the recommended limit for treatment of chronic wounds in clinics. We did not find mutagenic effects for any plasma treatment time using the either kINPen 09 or kINPen MED. The data provided with the current study seem to confirm the lack of a genotoxic potential suggesting that a veterinary or clinical application of these argon plasma jets does not pose mutagenic risks.
- ItemKey determinants of global land-use projections([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2019) Stehfest, Elke; van Zeist, Willem-Jan; Valin, Hugo; Havlik, Petr; Popp, Alexander; Kyle, Page; Tabeau, Andrzej; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Bodirsky, Benjamin L.; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Humpenöder, Florian; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; van Meijl, Hans; Wiebe, KeithLand use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.
- ItemFlood risk in a range of spatial perspectives – from global to local scales(Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geophysical Society, 2019) Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Su, Buda; Wang, Yanjun; Wang, Guojie; Wang, Guofu; Huang, Jinlong; Jiang, TongThe present paper examines flood risk (composed of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability) in a range of spatial perspectives – from the global to the local scale. It deals with observed records, noting that flood damage has been increasing. It also tackles projections for the future, related to flood hazard and flood losses. There are multiple factors driving flood hazard and flood risk and there is a considerable uncertainty in our assessments, and particularly in projections for the future. Further, this paper analyses options for flood risk reduction in several spatial dimensions, from global framework to regional to local scales. It is necessary to continue examination of the updated records of flood-related indices, trying to search for changes that influence flood hazard and flood risk in river basins.
- ItemAbout the influence of elevation model quality and small-scale damage functions on flood damage estimation(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2011) Boettle, M.; Kropp, J.P.; Reiber, L.; Roithmeier, O.; Rybski, D.; Walther, C.The assessment of coastal flood risks in a particular region requires the estimation of typical damages caused by storm surges of certain characteristics and annualities. Although the damage depends on a multitude of factors, including flow velocity, duration of flood, precaution, etc., the relationship between flood events and the corresponding average damages is usually described by a stage-damage function, which considers the maximum water level as the only damage influencing factor. Starting with different (microscale) building damage functions we elaborate a macroscopic damage function for the entire case study area Kalundborg (Denmark) on the basis of multiple coarse-graining methods and assumptions of the hydrological connectivity. We find that for small events, the macroscopic damage function mostly depends on the properties of the elevation model, while for large events it strongly depends on the assumed building damage function. In general, the damage in the case study increases exponentially up to a certain level and then less steep.
- ItemApplication of a model-based rainfall-runoff database as efficient tool for flood risk management(Chichester : John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2013) Brocca, L.; Liersch, S.; Melone, F.; Moramarco, T.; Volk, M.A framework for a comprehensive synthetic rainfall-runoff database was developed to study catchment response to a variety of rainfall events. The framework supports effective flood risk assessment and management and implements simple approaches. It consists of three flexible components, a rainfall generator, a continuous rainfallrunoff model, and a database management system. The system was developed and tested at two gauged river sections along the upper Tiber River (central Italy). One of the main questions was to investigate how simple such approaches can be applied without impairing the quality of the results. The rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate runoff on the basis of a large number of rainfall events. The resulting rainfallrunoff database stores pre-simulated events classified on the basis of the rainfall amount, initial wetness conditions and initial discharge. The real-time operational forecasts follow an analogue method that does not need new model simulations. However, the forecasts are based on the simulation results available in the rainfall-runoff database (for the specific class to which the forecast belongs). Therefore, the database can be used as an effective tool to assess possible streamflow scenarios assuming different rainfall volumes for the following days. The application to the study site shows that magnitudes of real flood events were appropriately captured by the database. Further work should be dedicated to introduce a component for taking account of the actual temporal distribution of rainfall events into the stochastic rainfall generator and to the use of different rainfall-runoff models to enhance the usability of the proposed procedure.
- ItemReply to Burgess et al: Catastrophic climate risks are neglected, plausible, and safe to study(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2022) Kemp, Luke; Xu, Chi; Depledge, Joanna; Ebi, Kristie L.; Gibbins, Goodwin; Kohler, Timothy A.; Rockström, Johan; Scheffer, Marten; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Steffen, Will; Lenton, Timothy M.
- ItemIntegrating risks of climate change into water management(Milton Park : Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2014) Döll, P.; Jiménez-Cisneros, B.; Oki, T.; Arnell, N.W.; Benito, G.; Cogley, J.G.; Jiang, T.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Mwakalila, S.; Nishijima, A.[No abstract available]
- ItemFlood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives(Milton Park : Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2014) Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Kanae, S.; Seneviratne, S.I.; Handmer, J.; Nicholls, N.; Peduzzi, P.; Mechler, R.; Bouwer, L.M.; Arnell, N.; Mach, K.; Muir-Wood, R.; Brakenridge, G.R.; Kron, W.; Benito, G.; Honda, Y.; Takahashi, K.; Sherstyukov, B.A holistic perspective on changing rainfall-driven flood risk is provided for the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Economic losses from floods have greatly increased, principally driven by the expanding exposure of assets at risk. It has not been possible to attribute rain-generated peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change over the past several decades. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall, based on climate models, should contribute to increases in precipitation-generated local flooding (e.g. flash flooding and urban flooding). This article assesses the literature included in the IPCC SREX report and new literature published since, and includes an assessment of changes in flood risk in seven of the regions considered in the recent IPCC SREX report-Africa, Asia, Central and South America, Europe, North America, Oceania and Polar regions. Also considering newer publications, this article is consistent with the recent IPCC SREX assessment finding that the impacts of climate change on flood characteristics are highly sensitive to the detailed nature of those changes and that presently we have only low confidence1 in numerical projections of changes in flood magnitude or frequency resulting from climate change.