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- ItemChallenges for developing national climate services – Poland and Norway(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2017) Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Førland, Eirik J.; Piniewski, MikołajThis contribution discusses the challenges for developing national climate services in two countries with high fossil fuel production – Poland (coal) and Norway (oil and gas). Both countries, Poland and Norway, have highly developed weather services, but largely differ on climate services. Since empirical and dynamical downscaling of climate models started in Norway over 20 years ago and meteorological and hydrological institutions in Oslo and Bergen have been collaborating on tailoring and disseminating downscaled climate projections to the Norwegian society, climate services are now well developed in Norway. The Norwegian Centre for Climate Services (NCCS) was established in 2011. In contrast, climate services in Poland, in the international understanding, do not exist. Actually, Poland is not an exception, as compared to other Central and Eastern European countries, many of which neither have their national climate services, nor are really interested in European climate services disseminated via common EU initiatives. It is worth posing a question – can Poland learn from Norway as regards climate services? This contribution is based on results of the CHASE-PL (Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland) project, carried out in the framework of the Polish – Norwegian Research Programme. The information generated within the Polish-Norwegian CHASE-PL project that is being broadly disseminated in Poland can be considered as a substitute for information delivered in other countries by climate services.
- ItemCommon solar wind drivers behind magnetic storm–magnetospheric substorm dependency([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2018) Runge, Jakob; Balasis, Georgios; Daglis, Ioannis A.; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Donner, Reik V.The dynamical relationship between magnetic storms and magnetospheric substorms is one of the most controversial issues of contemporary space research. Here, we address this issue through a causal inference approach to two corresponding indices in conjunction with several relevant solar wind variables. We find that the vertical component of the interplanetary magnetic field is the strongest and common driver of both storms and substorms. Further, our results suggest, at least based on the analyzed indices, that there is no statistical evidence for a direct or indirect dependency between substorms and storms and their statistical association can be explained by the common solar drivers. Given the powerful statistical tests we performed (by simultaneously taking into account time series of indices and solar wind variables), a physical mechanism through which substorms directly or indirectly drive storms or vice versa is, therefore, unlikely.
- ItemEducation and Disaster Vulnerability in Southeast Asia: Evidence and Policy Implications(Basel : MDPI, 2020) Hoffmann, Roman; Blecha, DanielaThis article summarizes the growing theoretical and empirical literature on the impact of education on disaster vulnerability with a focus on Southeast Asia. Education and learning can take place in different environments in more or less formalized ways. They can influence disaster vulnerability as the capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist, and recover from natural hazard in direct and indirect ways. Directly, through education and learning, individuals acquire knowledge, abilities, skills and perceptions that allow them to effectively prepare for and cope with the consequences of disaster shocks. Indirectly, education gives individuals and households access to material, informational and social resources, which can help reducing disaster vulnerability. We highlight central concepts and terminologies and discuss the different theoretical mechanisms through which education may have an impact. Supportive empirical evidence is presented and discussed with a particular focus on the role of inclusiveness in education and challenges in achieving universal access to high-quality education. Based on situation analysis and best practice cases, policy implications are derived that can inform the design and implementation of education and learning-based disaster risk reduction efforts in the region.
- ItemEnergy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2016) van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; Gernaat, David E.H.J.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; van den Berg, Maarten; Harmsen, Mathijs; de Boer, Harmen Sytze; Bouwman, Lex F.; Daioglou, Vassilis; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Girod, Bastien; Kram, Tom; Lassaletta, Luis; Lucas, Paul L.; van Meijl, Hans; Müller, Christoph; van Ruijven, Bas J.; van der Sluis, Sietske; Tabeau, AndrzejThis paper describes the possible developments in global energy use and production, land use, emissions and climate changes following the SSP1 storyline, a development consistent with the green growth (or sustainable development) paradigm (a more inclusive development respecting environmental boundaries). The results are based on the implementation using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model and are compared with a) other IMAGE implementations of the SSPs (SSP2 and SSP3) and b) the SSP1 implementation of other integrated assessment models. The results show that a combination of resource efficiency, preferences for sustainable production methods and investment in human development could lead to a strong transition towards a more renewable energy supply, less land use and lower anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2100 than in 2010, even in the absence of explicit climate policies. At the same time, climate policy would still be needed to reduce emissions further, in order to reduce the projected increase of global mean temperature from 3 °C (SSP1 reference scenario) to 2 or 1.5 °C (in line with current policy targets). The SSP1 storyline could be a basis for further discussions on how climate policy can be combined with achieving other societal goals.
- ItemFossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2016) Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander; Humpenöder, Florian; Leimbach, Marian; Strefler, Jessica; Baumstark, Lavinia; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Hilaire, Jérôme; Klein, David; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Weindl, Isabelle; Bertram, Christoph; Dietrich, Jan-Philipp; Luderer, Gunnar; Pehl, Michaja; Pietzcker, Robert; Piontek, Franziska; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Biewald, Anne; Bonsch, Markus; Giannousakis, Anastasis; Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Müller, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne; Schultes, Anselm; Schwanitz, Jana; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Calvin, Katherine; Emmerling, Johannes; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Edenhofer, OttmarThis paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.
- ItemFuture air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2016) Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Smith, Steven J.; Van Dingenen, Rita; Dentener, Frank; Bouwman, Lex; Riahi, Keywan; Amann, Markus; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Aleluia Reis, Lara; Calvin, Katherine; Drouet, Laurent; Fricko, Oliver; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gernaat, David; Havlik, Petr; Harmsen, Mathijs; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyes, Chris; Hilaire, Jérôme; Luderer, Gunnar; Masui, Toshihiko; Stehfest, Elke; Strefler, Jessica; van der Sluis, Sietske; Tavoni, MassimoEmissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we present methodology and results for air pollutant emissions in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We first present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high, central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21st century. These narratives are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models. The resulting pollutant emission trajectories under the SSP scenarios cover a wider range than the scenarios used in previous international climate model comparisons. In the SSP3 and SSP4 scenarios, where economic, institutional and technological limitations slow air quality improvements, global pollutant emissions over the 21st century can be comparable to current levels. Pollutant emissions in the SSP1 scenarios fall to low levels due to the assumption of technological advances and successful global action to control emissions.
- ItemFuture growth patterns of world regions – A GDP scenario approach(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2015) Leimbach, Marian; Kriegler, Elmar; Roming, Niklas; Schwanitz, JanaGlobal GDP projections for the 21st century are needed for the exploration of long-term global environmental problems, in particular climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions as well as climate change mitigation and adaption capacities strongly depend on growth of per capita income. However, long-term economic projections are highly uncertain. This paper provides five new long-term economic scenarios as part of the newly developed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) which represent a set of widely diverging narratives. A method of GDP scenario building is presented that is based on assumptions about technological progress, and human and physical capital formation as major drivers of long-term GDP per capita growth. The impact of these drivers differs significantly between different shared socio-economic pathways and is traced back to the underlying narratives and the associated population and education scenarios. In a highly fragmented world, technological and knowledge spillovers are low. Hence, the growth impact of technological progress and human capital is comparatively low, and per capita income diverges between world regions. These factors play a much larger role in globalization scenarios, leading to higher economic growth and stronger convergence between world regions. At the global average, per capita GDP is projected to grow annually in a range between 1.0% (SSP3) and 2.8% (SSP5) from 2010 to 2100. While this covers a large portion of variety in future global economic growth projections, plausible lower and higher growth projections may still be conceivable. The GDP projections are put into the context of historic patterns of economic growth (stylized facts), and their sensitivity to key assumptions is explored.
- ItemFuture tree survival in European forests depends on understorey tree diversity(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2022) Billing, Maik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Sakschewski, Boris; Bloh, Werner von; Walz, ArianeClimate change heavily threatens forest ecosystems worldwide and there is urgent need to understand what controls tree survival and forests stability. There is evidence that biodiversity can enhance ecosystem stability (Loreau and de Mazancourt in Ecol Lett 16:106–115, 2013; McCann in Nature 405:228–233, 2000), however it remains largely unclear whether this also holds for climate change and what aspects of biodiversity might be most important. Here we apply machine learning to outputs of a flexible-trait Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to unravel the effects of enhanced functional tree trait diversity and its sub-components on climate-change resistance of temperate forests (http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~billing/video/Forest_Resistance_LPJmLFIT.mp4). We find that functional tree trait diversity enhances forest resistance. We explain this with 1. stronger complementarity effects (~ 25% importance) especially improving the survival of trees in the understorey of up to + 16.8% (± 1.6%) and 2. environmental and competitive filtering of trees better adapted to future climate (40–87% importance). We conclude that forests containing functionally diverse trees better resist and adapt to future conditions. In this context, we especially highlight the role of functionally diverse understorey trees as they provide the fundament for better survival of young trees and filtering of resistant tree individuals in the future.
- ItemGlobal perturbation of stratospheric water and aerosol burden by Hunga eruption(London : Springer Nature, 2022) Khaykin, Sergey; Podglajen, Aurelien; Ploeger, Felix; Grooß, Jens-Uwe; Tence, Florent; Bekki, Slimane; Khlopenkov, Konstantin; Bedka, Kristopher; Rieger, Landon; Baron, Alexandre; Godin-Beekmann, Sophie; Legras, Bernard; Sellitto, Pasquale; Sakai, Tetsu; Barnes, John; Uchino, Osamu; Morino, Isamu; Nagai, Tomohiro; Wing, Robin; Baumgarten, Gerd; Gerding, Michael; Duflot, Valentin; Payen, Guillaume; Jumelet, Julien; Querel, Richard; Liley, Ben; Bourassa, Adam; Clouser, Benjamin; Feofilov, Artem; Hauchecorne, Alain; Ravetta, FrançoisThe eruption of the submarine Hunga volcano in January 2022 was associated with a powerful blast that injected volcanic material to altitudes up to 58 km. From a combination of various types of satellite and ground-based observations supported by transport modeling, we show evidence for an unprecedented increase in the global stratospheric water mass by 13% relative to climatological levels, and a 5-fold increase of stratospheric aerosol load, the highest in the last three decades. Owing to the extreme injection altitude, the volcanic plume circumnavigated the Earth in only 1 week and dispersed nearly pole-to-pole in three months. The unique nature and magnitude of the global stratospheric perturbation by the Hunga eruption ranks it among the most remarkable climatic events in the modern observation era, with a range of potential long-lasting repercussions for stratospheric composition and climate.
- ItemImpacts of meeting minimum access on critical earth systems amidst the Great Inequality(London : Springer Nature, 2022) Rammelt, Crelis F.; Gupta, Joyeeta; Liverman, Diana; Scholtens, Joeri; Ciobanu, Daniel; Abrams, Jesse F.; Bai, Xuemei; Gifford, Lauren; Gordon, Christopher; Hurlbert, Margot; Inoue, Cristina Y. A.; Jacobson, Lisa; Lade, Steven J.; Lenton, Timothy M.; McKay, David I. Armstrong; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Okereke, Chukwumerije; Otto, Ilona M.; Pereira, Laura M.; Prodani, Klaudia; Rockström, Johan; Stewart-Koster, Ben; Verburg, Peter H.; Zimm, CarolineThe Sustainable Development Goals aim to improve access to resources and services, reduce environmental degradation, eradicate poverty and reduce inequality. However, the magnitude of the environmental burden that would arise from meeting the needs of the poorest is under debate—especially when compared to much larger burdens from the rich. We show that the ‘Great Acceleration’ of human impacts was characterized by a ‘Great Inequality’ in using and damaging the environment. We then operationalize ‘just access’ to minimum energy, water, food and infrastructure. We show that achieving just access in 2018, with existing inequalities, technologies and behaviours, would have produced 2–26% additional impacts on the Earth’s natural systems of climate, water, land and nutrients—thus further crossing planetary boundaries. These hypothetical impacts, caused by about a third of humanity, equalled those caused by the wealthiest 1–4%. Technological and behavioural changes thus far, while important, did not deliver just access within a stable Earth system. Achieving these goals therefore calls for a radical redistribution of resources.
- ItemThe influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2018) Coumou, D.; Di Capua, G.; Vavrus, S.; Wang, L.; Wang, S.Accelerated warming in the Arctic, as compared to the rest of the globe, might have profound impacts on mid-latitude weather. Most studies analyzing Arctic links to mid-latitude weather focused on winter, yet recent summers have seen strong reductions in sea-ice extent and snow cover, a weakened equator-to-pole thermal gradient and associated weakening of the mid-latitude circulation. We review the scientific evidence behind three leading hypotheses on the influence of Arctic changes on mid-latitude summer weather: Weakened storm tracks, shifted jet streams, and amplified quasi-stationary waves. We show that interactions between Arctic teleconnections and other remote and regional feedback processes could lead to more persistent hot-dry extremes in the mid-latitudes. The exact nature of these non-linear interactions is not well quantified but they provide potential high-impact risks for society.
- ItemIntercomparison of regional loss estimates from global synthetic tropical cyclone models([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2022) Meiler, Simona; Vogt, Thomas; Bloemendaal, Nadia; Ciullo, Alessio; Lee, Chia-Ying; Camargo, Suzana J.; Emanuel, Kerry; Bresch, David N.Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause devastating damage to life and property. Historical TC data is scarce, complicating adequate TC risk assessments. Synthetic TC models are specifically designed to overcome this scarcity. While these models have been evaluated on their ability to simulate TC activity, no study to date has focused on model performance and applicability in TC risk assessments. This study performs the intercomparison of four different global-scale synthetic TC datasets in the impact space, comparing impact return period curves, probability of rare events, and hazard intensity distribution over land. We find that the model choice influences the costliest events, particularly in basins with limited TC activity. Modelled direct economic damages in the North Indian Ocean, for instance, range from 40 to 246 billion USD for the 100-yr event over the four hazard sets. We furthermore provide guidelines for the suitability of the different synthetic models for various research purposes.
- ItemLand-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2017) Popp, Alexander; Calvin, Katherine; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Stehfest, Elke; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Doelmann, Jonathan C.; Gusti, Mykola; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kyle, Page; Obersteiner, Michael; Tabeau, Andrzej; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Valin, Hugo; Waldhoff, Stephanie; Weindl, Isabelle; Wise, Marshall; Kriegler, Elmar; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Fricko, Oliver; Riahi, Keywan; Vuuren, Detlef P. vanIn the future, the land system will be facing new intersecting challenges. While food demand, especially for resource-intensive livestock based commodities, is expected to increase, the terrestrial system has large potentials for climate change mitigation through improved agricultural management, providing biomass for bioenergy, and conserving or even enhancing carbon stocks of ecosystems. However, uncertainties in future socio-economic land use drivers may result in very different land-use dynamics and consequences for land-based ecosystem services. This is the first study with a systematic interpretation of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) in terms of possible land-use changes and their consequences for the agricultural system, food provision and prices as well as greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, five alternative Integrated Assessment Models with distinctive land-use modules have been used for the translation of the SSP narratives into quantitative projections. The model results reflect the general storylines of the SSPs and indicate a broad range of potential land-use futures with global agricultural land of 4900 mio ha in 2005 decreasing by 743 mio ha until 2100 at the lower (SSP1) and increasing by 1080 mio ha (SSP3) at the upper end. Greenhouse gas emissions from land use and land use change, as a direct outcome of these diverse land-use dynamics, and agricultural production systems differ strongly across SSPs (e.g. cumulative land use change emissions between 2005 and 2100 range from −54 to 402 Gt CO2). The inclusion of land-based mitigation efforts, particularly those in the most ambitious mitigation scenarios, further broadens the range of potential land futures and can strongly affect greenhouse gas dynamics and food prices. In general, it can be concluded that low demand for agricultural commodities, rapid growth in agricultural productivity and globalized trade, all most pronounced in a SSP1 world, have the potential to enhance the extent of natural ecosystems, lead to lowest greenhouse gas emissions from the land system and decrease food prices over time. The SSP-based land use pathways presented in this paper aim at supporting future climate research and provide the basis for further regional integrated assessments, biodiversity research and climate impact analysis. © 2016 The Authors
- ItemLow atmospheric CO2 levels before the rise of forested ecosystems([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2022) Dahl, Tais W.; Harding, Magnus A. R.; Brugger, Julia; Feulner, Georg; Norrman, Kion; Lomax, Barry H.; Junium, Christopher K.The emergence of forests on Earth (~385 million years ago, Ma)1 has been linked to an order-of-magnitude decline in atmospheric CO2 levels and global climatic cooling by altering continental weathering processes, but observational constraints on atmospheric CO2 before the rise of forests carry large, often unbound, uncertainties. Here, we calibrate a mechanistic model for gas exchange in modern lycophytes and constrain atmospheric CO2 levels 410–380 Ma from related fossilized plants with bound uncertainties of approximately ±100 ppm (1 sd). We find that the atmosphere contained ~525–715 ppm CO2 before continents were afforested, and that Earth was partially glaciated according to a palaeoclimate model. A process-driven biogeochemical model (COPSE) shows the appearance of trees with deep roots did not dramatically enhance atmospheric CO2 removal. Rather, shallow-rooted vascular ecosystems could have simultaneously caused abrupt atmospheric oxygenation and climatic cooling long before the rise of forests, although earlier CO2 levels are still unknown.
- ItemNo polarization–Expected Values of Climate Change Impacts among European Forest Professionals and Scientists(Basel : MDPI, 2020) Persson, Johannes; Blennow, Kristina; Gonçalves, Luísa; Borys, Alexander; Dutcă, Ioan; Hynynen, Jari; Janeczko, Emilia; Lyubenova, Mariyana; Martel, Simon; Merganic, Jan; Merganičová, Katarína; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Petr, Michal; Reboredo, Fernando H.; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Reyer, Christopher P.O.The role of values in climate-related decision-making is a prominent theme of climate communication research. The present study examines whether forest professionals are more driven by values than scientists are, and if this results in value polarization. A questionnaire was designed to elicit and assess the values assigned to expected effects of climate change by forest professionals and scientists working on forests and climate change in Europe. The countries involved covered a north-to-south and west-to-east gradient across Europe, representing a wide range of bio-climatic conditions and a mix of economic–social–political structures. We show that European forest professionals and scientists do not exhibit polarized expectations about the values of specific impacts of climate change on forests in their countries. In fact, few differences between forest professionals and scientists were found. However, there are interesting differences in the expected values of forest professionals with regard to climate change impacts across European countries. In Northern European countries, the aggregated values of the expected effects are more neutral than they are in Southern Europe, where they are more negative. Expectations about impacts on timber production, economic returns, and regulatory ecosystem services are mostly negative, while expectations about biodiversity and energy production are mostly positive.
- ItemNucleation of jet engine oil vapours is a large source of aviation-related ultrafine particles(London : Springer Nature, 2022) Ungeheuer, Florian; Caudillo, Lucía; Ditas, Florian; Simon, Mario; van Pinxteren, Dominik; Kılıç, Doğuşhan; Rose, Diana; Jacobi, Stefan; Kürten, Andreas; Curtius, Joachim; Vogel, Alexander L.Large airports are a major source of ultrafine particles, which spread across densely populated residential areas, affecting air quality and human health. Jet engine lubrication oils are detectable in aviation-related ultrafine particles, however, their role in particle formation and growth remains unclear. Here we show the volatility and new-particle-formation ability of a common synthetic jet oil, and the quantified oil fraction in ambient ultrafine particles downwind of Frankfurt International Airport, Germany. We find that the oil mass fraction is largest in the smallest particles (10-18 nm) with 21% on average. Combining ambient particle-phase concentration and volatility of the jet oil compounds, we determine a lower-limit saturation ratio larger than 1 × 105 for ultra-low volatility organic compounds. This indicates that the oil is an efficient nucleation agent. Our results demonstrate that jet oil nucleation is an important mechanism that can explain the abundant observations of high number concentrations of non-refractory ultrafine particles near airports.
- ItemOvercoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2022) Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Orlov, Anton; Windisch, Michael Gregory; Menke, Inga; Pongratz, Julia; Havermann, Felix; Thiery, Wim; Luo, Fei; v. Jeetze, Patrick; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Weindl, Isabelle; Lejeune, QuentinTransformation pathways for the land sector in line with the Paris Agreement depend on the assumption of globally implemented greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pricing, and in some cases also on inclusive socio-economic development and sustainable land-use practices. In such pathways, the majority of GHG emission reductions in the land system is expected to come from low- and middle-income countries, which currently account for a large share of emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU). However, in low- and middle-income countries the economic, financial and institutional barriers for such transformative changes are high. Here, we show that if sustainable development in the land sector remained highly unequal and limited to high-income countries only, global AFOLU emissions would remain substantial throughout the 21st century. Our model-based projections highlight that overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement. While also a scenario purely based on either global GHG emission pricing or on inclusive socio-economic development would achieve the stringent emissions reductions required, only the latter ensures major co-benefits for other Sustainable Development Goals, especially in low- and middle-income regions.
- ItemPredictability of properties of a fractured geothermal reservoir: the opportunities and limitations of an outcrop analogue study(Berlin ; Heidelberg [u.a.] : SpringerOpen, 2017) Bauer, Johanna F.; Krumbholz, Michael; Meier, Silke; Tanner, David C.Minimizing exploration risk in deep geothermics is of great economic importance. Especially, knowledge about temperature and permeability of the reservoir is essential. We test the potential of an outcrop analogue study to minimize uncertainties in prediction of the rock properties of a fractured reservoir in the Upper Rhine Graben. Our results show that although mineralogical composition, clay content, grain size, and fabric type are basically comparable, porosity and quartz cementation are not. Young’s modulus, as observed in the outcrop closest to the reservoir is about twice as high (~ 64 GPa) as observed in the reservoir (~ 34 GPa). Most importantly, however, the parameters that describe the fracture system, which are essential to predict reservoir permeability, differ significantly. While the outcrops are dominated by perpendicular fracture sets (striking NE–SW and NW–SE), two different conjugate fracture sets (striking NW–SE and N–S) occur in the reservoir. Fracture apertures, as reported from the FMI, are one order of magnitude wider than in the outcrop. We conclude that our outcrop analogue study fails to predict important properties of the reservoir (such as permeability and porosity). This must be in part because of the tectonically complex setting of the reservoir. We propose that analogue studies are important, but they must be treated with care when attempting to predict the controlling parameters of a fractured reservoir.
- ItemS-wave experiments for the exploration of a deep geothermal carbonate reservoir in the German Molasse Basin(Berlin ; Heidelberg [u.a.] : SpringerOpen, 2021) Wawerzinek, Britta; Buness, Hermann; von Hartmann, Hartwig; Tanner, David C.There are many successful geothermal projects that exploit the Upper Jurassic aquifer at 2–3 km depth in the German Molasse Basin. However, up to now, only P-wave seismic exploration has been carried out. In an experiment in the Greater Munich area, we recorded S-waves that were generated by the conventional P-wave seismic survey, using 3C receivers. From this, we built a 3D volume of P- to S-converted (PS) waves using the asymptotic conversion point approach. By combining the P-volume and the resulting PS-seismic volume, we were able to derive the spatial distribution of the vp/vs ratio of both the Molasse overburden and the Upper Jurassic reservoir. We found that the vp/vs ratios for the Molasse units range from 2.0 to 2.3 with a median of 2.15, which is much higher than previously assumed. This raises the depth of hypocenters of induced earthquakes in surrounding geothermal wells. The vp/vs ratios found in the Upper Jurassic vary laterally between 1.5 and 2.2. Since no boreholes are available for verification, we test our results against an independently derived facies classification of the conventional 3D seismic volume and found it correlates well. Furthermore, we see that low vp/vs ratios correlate with high vp and vs velocities. We interpret the latter as dolomitized rocks, which are connected with enhanced permeability in the reservoir. We conclude that 3C registration of conventional P-wave surveys is worthwhile.
- ItemThe Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2016) Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, Jae; O’Neill, Brian C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Bauer, Nico; Calvin, Katherine; Dellink, Rob; Fricko, Oliver; Lutz, Wolfgang; Popp, Alexander; Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus; KC, Samir; Leimbach, Marian; Jiang, Leiwen; Kram, Tom; Rao, Shilpa; Emmerling, Johannes; Ebi, Kristie; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Aleluia Da Silva, Lara; Smith, Steve; Stehfest, Elke; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Gernaat, David; Masui, Toshihiko; Rogelj, Joeri; Strefler, Jessica; Drouet, Laurent; Krey, Volker; Luderer, Gunnar; Harmsen, Mathijs; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Baumstark, Lavinia; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kainuma, Mikiko; Klimont, Zbigniew; Marangoni, Giacomo; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Obersteiner, Michael; Tabeau, Andrzej; Tavoni, MassimoThis paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO2 to more than 120 GtCO2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).