BIOCONSENT: Decision-making support for forest biodiversity conservation and restoration policy and management in Europe: Trade-offs and synergies at the forest-biodiversity-climate-water nexus

Abstract

Despite ambitious policies and targets at the global and EU levels, biodiversity is under increasing threat. Decline of biodiversity and degradation of ecosystems continue at an alarming rate, especially in forests that harbour 80% of terrestrial biodiversity worldwide. Enhanced conservation and restoration of forest habitats, species and functions are key for biodiversity and provision of ecosystem services. However, ambitious targets are not enough to reverse the current trends. First, strong interdependencies exist between different policies relating to biodiversity, forests, climate and water, and goal achievement presupposes coherent policy design and implementation at (inter-)national and local levels. Second, implementation depends on supportive behavioural responses by forest owners and managers who have to respond to multiple policy, socioeconomic and ecological drivers forcing them to make trade-offs under complexity, uncertainty and climate change. BIOCONSENT’s main objective is to provide decision support based on scientific knowledge by (i.) analysis of the impacts of (in)coherent policies at the biodiversity-forest-water-climate nexus, (ii.) assessment of forest owners’ and managers’ behavioural changes for transformation towards sustainable socio-ecological systems with improved biodiversity status, and (iii.) assessment and quantification of outcomes of alternative conservation and restoration strategies under different future scenarios on forest biodiversity and ecosystem provision across spatial and temporal scales. The research results show that national policy responses to the EU Forest and Biodiversity strategies vary from neglect to mixed or full support depending on dominant policy advocacy coalitions, institutions, and policy beliefs. Findings also reveal a great diversity of forest owners and managers across countries in Europe; “Multifunctionalists” and “Environmentalists” are more likely support forest-related EU biodiversity and climate policies whereas “Optimizers” and “Traditionalists” are less likely to do so. Modeling results indicate that forest structure often dominates and possibly restricts management outcomes, leading to only modest biodiversity gains under current scenarios. Across countries, stakeholders prefer “land-sharing” implementation strategies and active restoration to meet forest related EU biodiversity and climate resilience goals under “Biodiversity First,” “Multifunctionality,” and “Bioeconomy First” scenarios. “Land sparing” implementation strategies can also work, but under more contrasting scenarios. Cross-country comparisons and stakeholder workshops demonstrate the importance of iterative learning between science, policy, and practice. Integrating social science, behavioral insights, and ecological modelling provides a powerful foundation for adaptive, evidence-based forest governance – supporting effective implementation of EU strategies under changing climate and socio-economic conditions. The project provides a range of decision support accessible and relevant to policymakers, practitioners, forest owners and managers, environmental NGOs, and other relevant stakeholders. This includes i) better knowledge about trade-offs and synergies between EU and national policies, and between policies and implementation strategies, ii) social science research on the behavioural responses promoting or hindering transformational change, iii) agent-based modelling assessing and quantifying synergies and trade-offs associated with forest conservation and restoration measures, and iv) policy and management recommendations for knowledge-based policy learning. Project website: www.bioconsent.eu