Multi-parameter uncertainty analysis of a bifurcation point

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Date
2006
Volume
13
Issue
5
Journal Title
Title
Series Titel
Publisher
Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH
Abstract

Parameter uncertainty analysis of climate models has become a standard approach for model validation and testing their sensitivity. Here we present a novel approach that allows one to estimate the robustness of a bifurcation point in a multi-parameter space. In this study we investigate a box model of the Indian summer monsoon that exhibits a saddle-node bifurcation against those parameters that govern the heat balance of the system. The bifurcation brings about a change from a wet summer monsoon regime to a regime that is characterised by low precipitation. To analyse the robustness of the bifurcation point itself and its location in parameter space, we perform a multi-parameter uncertainty analysis by applying qualitative, Monte Carlo and deterministic methods that are provided by a multi-run simulation environment. Our results show that the occurrence of the bifurcation point is robust over a wide range of parameter values. The position of the bifurcation, however, is found to be sensitive on these specific parameter choices.

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Keywords
bifurcation, climate modeling, monsoon, summer, uncertainty analysis
Citation
Knopf, B., Flechsig, M., & Zickfeld, K. (2006). Multi-parameter uncertainty analysis of a bifurcation point. 13(5). https://doi.org//10.5194/npg-13-531-2006
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License
CC BY-NC-SA 2.5 Unported