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- ItemReply to Ruhl and Craig: Assessing and governing extreme climate risks needs to be legitimate and democratic(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2022) Kemp, Luke; Xu, Chi; Depledge, Joanna; Ebi, Kristie L.; Gibbins, Goodwin; Kohler, Timothy A.; Rockström, Johan; Scheffer, Marten; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Steffen, Will; Lenton, Timothy M.[No abstract available]
- ItemReply to Burgess et al: Catastrophic climate risks are neglected, plausible, and safe to study(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2022) Kemp, Luke; Xu, Chi; Depledge, Joanna; Ebi, Kristie L.; Gibbins, Goodwin; Kohler, Timothy A.; Rockström, Johan; Scheffer, Marten; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Steffen, Will; Lenton, Timothy M.
- ItemGas plasma–oxidized sodium chloride acts via hydrogen peroxide in a model of peritoneal carcinomatosis(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2022) Miebach, Lea; Freund, Eric; Clemen, Ramona; Kersting, Stephan; Partecke, Lars-Ivo; Bekeschus, SanderGas plasma technology generates reactive oxygen and nitrogen species (ROS/RNS), inducing lethal oxidative damage in tumor cells. The transfer of gas plasma–derived ROS/RNS into liquids has been proposed as an innovative anti-cancer strategy targeting peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC). However, the mechanism of action is under debate. To this end, we compared gas plasma–oxidized medical-grade sodium chloride (oxNaCl) with a concentration-matched control (cmc) of NaCl enriched with equivalent concentrations of H2O2 and NO32 in several cell lines and models of PC. Strikingly, oxNaCl and cmc performed equally well in oxidation and cytotoxic activity in tumor cells in two-dimensional cultures, three-dimensional (3D) tumor spheroids, vascularized 3D tumors grown on chicken-embryo chorioallantoic membranes, and a syngeneic PC mouse model in vivo. Given the importance of immunotherapies in oncology today, we focused on immunological consequences of the treatment. Again, to a similar extent, oxNaCl and cmc increased tumor cell immunogenicity and enhanced uptake by and maturation of peripheral blood monocyte–derived dendritic cells together with an inflammatory secretion profile. Furthermore, NanoString gene expression profiling revealed immune system processes and unfolded protein response-related pathways as being linked to the observed anti-tumor effects for both oxNaCl and cmc. In conclusion, gas plasma–generated oxNaCl and cmc showed equal therapeutic efficacy in our PC-related models. In light of the many promising anti-cancer studies of gas plasma–oxidized liquids and the convenient production of corresponding cmcs in large quantities as needed in clinics, our findings may spur research lines based on low-dose oxidants in peritoneal cancer therapy.
- ItemStewardship of global collective behavior(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2021) Bak-Coleman, Joseph B.; Alfano, Mark; Barfuss, Wolfram; Bergstrom, Carl T.; Centeno, Miguel A.; Couzin, Iain D.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Galesic, Mirta; Gersick, Andrew S.; Jacquet, Jennifer; Kao, Albert B.; Moran, Rachel E.; Romanczuk, Pawel; Rubenstein, Daniel I.; Tombak, Kaia J.; Van Bavel, Jay J.; Weber, Elke U.Collective behavior provides a framework for understanding how the actions and properties of groups emerge from the way individuals generate and share information. In humans, information flows were initially shaped by natural selection yet are increasingly structured by emerging communication technologies. Our larger, more complex social networks now transfer high-fidelity information over vast distances at low cost. The digital age and the rise of social media have accelerated changes to our social systems, with poorly understood functional consequences. This gap in our knowledge represents a principal challenge to scientific progress, democracy, and actions to address global crises. We argue that the study of collective behavior must rise to a “crisis discipline” just as medicine, conservation, and climate science have, with a focus on providing actionable insight to policymakers and regulators for the stewardship of social systems.
- ItemPhylodynamic signatures in the emergence of community-associated MRSA(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2022) Steinig, Eike; Aglua, Izzard; Duchene, Sebastian; Meehan, Michael T.; Yoannes, Mition; Firth, Cadhla; Jaworski, Jan; Drekore, Jimmy; Urakoko, Bohu; Poka, Harry; Wurr, Clive; Ebos, Eri; Nangen, David; MĂĽller, Elke; Mulvey, Peter; Jackson, Charlene; Blomfeldt, Anita; Aamot, Hege Vangstein; Laman, Moses; Manning, Laurens; Earls, Megan; Coleman, David C.; Greenhill, Andrew; Ford, Rebecca; Stegger, Marc; Syed, Muhammad Ali; Jamil, Bushra; Monecke, Stefan; Ehricht, Ralf; Smith, Simon; Pomat, William; Horwood, Paul; Tong, Steven Y. C.; McBryde, EmmaCommunity-associated, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) lineages have emerged in many geographically distinct regions around the world during the past 30 y. Here, we apply consistent phylodynamic methods across multiple community-associated MRSA lineages to describe and contrast their patterns of emergence and dissemination. We generated whole-genome sequencing data for the Australian sequence type (ST) ST93-MRSA-IV from remote communities in Far North Queensland and Papua New Guinea, and the Bengal Bay ST772-MRSA-V clone from metropolitan communities in Pakistan. Increases in the effective reproduction number (Re) and sustained transmission (Re > 1) coincided with spread of progenitor methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) in remote northern Australian populations, dissemination of the ST93-MRSA-IV genotype into population centers on the Australian East Coast, and subsequent importation into the highlands of Papua New Guinea and Far North Queensland. Applying the same phylodynamic methods to existing lineage datasets, we identified common signatures of epidemic growth in the emergence and epidemiological trajectory of community-associated S. aureus lineages from America, Asia, Australasia, and Europe. Surges in Re were observed at the divergence of antibiotic-resistant strains, coinciding with their establishment in regional population centers. Epidemic growth was also observed among drug-resistant MSSA clades in Africa and northern Australia. Our data suggest that the emergence of community-associated MRSA in the late 20th century was driven by a combination of antibiotic-resistant genotypes and host epidemiology, leading to abrupt changes in lineage-wide transmission dynamics and sustained transmission in regional population centers.
- ItemEmergent inequality and business cycles in a simple behavioral macroeconomic model(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2021) Asano, Yuki M.; Kolb, Jakob J.; Heitzig, Jobst; Farmer, J. DoyneStandard macroeconomic models assume that households are rational in the sense that they are perfect utility maximizers and explain economic dynamics in terms of shocks that drive the economy away from the steady state. Here we build on a standard macroeconomic model in which a single rational representative household makes a savings decision of how much to consume or invest. In our model, households are myopic boundedly rational heterogeneous agents embedded in a social network. From time to time each household updates its savings rate by copying the savings rate of its neighbor with the highest consumption. If the updating time is short, the economy is stuck in a poverty trap, but for longer updating times economic output approaches its optimal value, and we observe a critical transition to an economy with irregular endogenous oscillations in economic output, resembling a business cycle. In this regime households divide into two groups: poor households with low savings rates and rich households with high savings rates. Thus, inequality and economic dynamics both occur spontaneously as a consequence of imperfect household decision-making. Adding a few “rational” agents with a fixed savings rate equal to the long-term optimum allows us to match business cycle timescales. Our work here supports an alternative program of research that substitutes utility maximization for behaviorally grounded decision-making.
- ItemReply to Kelman: The foundations for studying catastrophic climate risks(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2022) Kemp, Luke; Xu, Chi; Depledge, Joanna; Ebi, Kristie L.; Gibbins, Goodwin; Kohler, Timothy A.; Rockström, Johan; Scheffer, Marten; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Steffen, Will; Lenton, Timothy M.