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Option pricing in the moderate deviations regime
We consider call option prices close to expiry in diffusion models, in an asymptotic regime (“moderately out of the money”) that interpolates between the well-studied cases of at-the-money and out-of-the-money regimes. First and higher order small-time moderate deviation estimates of call prices and implied volatilities are obtained. The expansions involve only simple expressions of the model parameters, and we show how to calculate them for generic local and stochastic volatility models. Some numerical computations for the Heston model illustrate the accuracy of our results.
Pathwise McKean--Vlasov theory with additive noise
We take a pathwise approach to classical McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations with additive noise, as e.g. exposed in Sznitmann [34]. Our study was prompted by some concrete problems in battery modelling [19], and also by recent progress on rough-pathwise McKean-Vlasov theory, notably Cass--Lyons [9], and then Bailleul, Catellier and Delarue [4]. Such a ``pathwise McKean-Vlasov theory'' can be traced back to Tanaka [36]. This paper can be seen as an attempt to advertize the ideas, power and simplicity of the pathwise appproach, not so easily extracted from [4, 9, 36]. As novel applications we discuss mean field convergence without a priori independence and exchangeability assumption; common noise and reflecting boundaries. Last not least, we generalize Dawson--Gärtner large deviations to a non-Brownian noise setting.
Pricing under rough volatility
From an analysis of the time series of volatility using recent high frequency data, Gatheral, Jaisson and Rosenbaum [SSRN 2509457, 2014] previously showed that log-volatility behaves essentially as a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst exponent H of order 0.1, at any reasonable time scale. The resulting Rough Fractional Stochastic Volatility (RFSV) model is remarkably consistent with financial time series data. We now show how the RFSV model can be used to price claims on both the underlying and integrated volatility. We analyze in detail a simple case of this model, the rBergomi model. In particular, we find that the rBergomi model fits the SPX volatility markedly better than conventional Markovian stochastic volatility models, and with fewer parameters. Finally, we show that actual SPX variance swap curves seem to be consistent with model forecasts, with particular dramatic examples from the weekend of the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the Flash Crash.
Varieties of Signature Tensors
The signature of a parametric curve is a sequence of tensors whose entries are iterated integrals. This construction is central to the theory of rough paths in stochastic analysis. It is examined here through the lens of algebraic geometry. We introduce varieties of signature tensors for both deterministic paths and random paths. For the former, we focus on piecewise linear paths, on polynomial paths, and on varieties derived from free nilpotent Lie groups. For the latter, we focus on Brownian motion and its mixtures.
Transport and continuity equations with (very) rough noise
Existence and uniqueness for rough flows, transport and continuity equations driven by general geometric rough paths are established.
Stability of deep neural networks via discrete rough paths
Using rough path techniques, we provide a priori estimates for the output of Deep Residual Neural Networks. In particular we derive stability bounds in terms of the total p-variation of trained weights for any p ≥ 1.
Unified signature cumulants and generalized Magnus expansions
The signature of a path can be described as its full non-commutative exponential. Following T. Lyons we regard its expectation, the expected signature, as path space analogue of the classical moment generating function. The logarithm thereof, taken in the tensor algebra, defines the signature cumulant. We establish a universal functional relation in a general semimartingale context. Our work exhibits the importance of Magnus expansions in the algorithmic problem of computing expected signature cumulants, and further offers a far-reaching generalization of recent results on characteristic exponents dubbed diamond and cumulant expansions; with motivation ranging from financial mathematics to statistical physics. From an affine process perspective, the functional relation may be interpreted as infinite-dimensional, non-commutative (``Hausdorff") variation of Riccati's equation. Many examples are given.